On the development of an information system for monitoring user opinion and its role for the public

Social media services and analytics platforms are rapidly growing. A large number of various events happen mostly every day, and the role of social media monitoring tools is also increasing. Social networks are widely used for managing and promoting brands and different services. Thus, most popular social analytics platforms aim for business purposes while monitoring various social, economic, and political problems remains underrepresented and not covered by thorough research. Moreover, most of them focus on resource-rich languages such as the English language, whereas texts and comments in other low-resource languages, such as the Russian and Kazakh languages in social media, are not represented well enough. So, this work is devoted to developing and applying the information system called the OMSystem for analyzing users' opinions on news portals, blogs, and social networks in Kazakhstan. The system uses sentiment dictionaries of the Russian and Kazakh languages and machine learning algorithms to determine the sentiment of social media texts. The whole structure and functionalities of the system are also presented. The experimental part is devoted to building machine learning models for sentiment analysis on the Russian and Kazakh datasets. Then the performance of the models is evaluated with accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics. The models with the highest scores are selected for implementation in the OMSystem. Then the OMSystem's social analytics module is used to thoroughly analyze the healthcare, political and social aspects of the most relevant topics connected with the vaccination against the coronavirus disease. The analysis allowed us to discover the public social mood in the cities of Almaty and Nur-Sultan and other large regional cities of Kazakhstan. The system's study included two extensive periods: 10-01-2021 to 30-05-2021 and 01-07-2021 to 12-08-2021. In the obtained results, people's moods and attitudes to the Government's policies and actions were studied by such social network indicators as the level of topic discussion activity in society, the level of interest in the topic in society, and the mood level of society. These indicators calculated by the OMSystem allowed careful identification of alarming factors of the public (negative attitude to the government regulations, vaccination policies, trust in vaccination, etc.) and assessment of the social mood

Testing the capacities of middle power relations in international politics: the case of Turkey and Iran

The aim of this study is to provide a fresh analysis of middle-power states' capabilities within the international political arena, utilising an integrated experimental model to conduct a unit-level of analysis of Turko-Iraman relations with a focus on economic, diplomatic, political and military issues. The principal argument of this study is that the middle-power state is the key actor in the region, socially constructed within a distinctive political context; resisting super power hegemonic intervention, and having bargaining power with regard to more powerful entities. The socially constructed identities of Turkey and Iran are highlighted as key influences in foreign relations, leading to a complex dynamic between these 'reluctant neighbours.' The limits of their power are clarified as consisting of employing agent groups to manipulate internal threats and apply counter-terrorist/revolutionary politics, but falling short of sufficient to control transnational nationalism. Using this ethnic political card to negate each other's influence invites foreign power penetration into regional politics. Kurdish nationalism acts as an independent regional player and challenges the Turkish and Iranian political identities, both secularist and religious. Turkey and Iran endavour to apply the 'niche diplomacy' in energy and pipeline routes competition in the Southern Caucasus. The study, thus, examines the competing factors of the both countries' geographic adjacency as a stimulus for economic integration as a partial entrenchment against diplomatic mistrust, and preventing systematic regional integration within the last three decades within the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) framework. The role of Iran's nuclear ambitions and Turkey's western alliances are examined as influences on the countries' identities. Contrary to the systemic and regional circumstances of secularist Turkey, the messianic identity of Iranian religious nationalism has resulted in a nuclear weaponisation programme that not only militarises the domestic politics of Iran, but also undermines the countries' mutual trust, with a profound adverse effect on the countries' economic relationship. In order to increase the efficiency and explanatory power of middle-power state, this study amended the middle-power state theory, and successfully tested its applicability to Turkish-Iranian relationship through various variables related to international relations, international policy aspects of domestic political events, ethnic tension and economic relations

China and Central Asia\u27s Transnational Concerns Require Multilateral Solutions

After seven decades of regional domination, the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 put the whole continent in a state of political and economic uncertainty. The sudden absence of a strong, yet generally predictable hegemon initiated an intense debate centered on whether or not the rise of China posed a grave threat to the region or whether it would bring stability and cohesion to the region. After 23 years of observation, it is now safe to presume that China does not pose a military threat to the region. Simply because China does not have expansionist or aggressive political or economic aims does not mean that there should be no cause for concern. China does possess persistent political, economic, and security concerns that, despite the nation\u27s best efforts, has not been able to solve. Domestically, examples of these concerns are illegal smuggling, weapons and human trafficking, illegal narcotics, organized crime, Islamic fundamentalism, ethnic nationalism, and Islamic militancy. Internationally, China has had a hard time, not only dealing with the aforementioned list, but also with piracy, ethnic unrest, anti-Chinese sentiment, corruption, and illegal port activities. The reason the solution to these problems remains elusive is the fact that they all share a common element. The element is that they are all transnational in nature; the events themselves, not fully encapsulated within the borders of just one nation-state. This makes them extremely difficult for a single nation-state to be able to effectively deal with them. It happens that Central Asian nations and littoral nations of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore are also afflicted with many of the same issues. This fact is why it will take a comprehensive and coordinated effort in order to effectively deal with the underlying causes which contribute to these problems before any noticeable effect will take place. These efforts, or transnational solutions, are the most effective way to deal with transnational concerns. Research, observations, and the case studies demonstrate that many of the most pressing transnational concerns have similar underlying factors. Income inequality, government repression, and lack of economic opportunity are a few of the most prevalent factors. The obstacles these factors cause are not insurmountable. However each one of these problems require a concentrated and coordinated effort and the cooperation of multiple nation-states. International Organizations, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, are effective mediums in which to accomplish this. What is repeatedly observed is that transnational problems are best solved using transnational solutions

US grand strategy and Central Asia: merging geopolitics and ideology

After the demise of the Cold War, US strategic planning gradually adjusted to the new security environment, aiming to maintain its dominant global position while increasingly emphasizing regional security, governance issues and threats from non-state actors. The George W. Bush administration greatly accelerated these trends. US grand strategy today is one of global primacy, characterized by a dual focus on preventing the rise of any regional hegemonic powers while addressing regional security issues stemming from transnational and non-state threats. Current US grand strategy exhibits, as it has for decades, two fundamental components: geopolitical reasoning and ideological interests. The geographical focus of US strategy has gradually shifted to a broad arc stretching from Western Africa to Southeast Asia, an area rich in vital strategic resources and widespread political and social instability. Located at the center of this unstable arc, Central Asia contains many of the global challenges facing the US: regional powers, unstable and authoritarian states, energy resources, terrorism, proliferation threats and international criminal networks. With its regional strategy, the US seeks to shift the political center of gravity away from Russia and China by encouraging economic and political linkages between Central Asia and the region's southerly neighbors. This study reveals that the geopolitical and ideological elements in US strategy create both surprising synergies as well as classic conflicts of interest for policymakers. The challenges facing the US in Central Asia offer lessons for US strategy in other regions around the globe

Cultural-humanitarian cooperation as a tool of soft power: Case of Kazakhstan

Scientific novelty of the research determined by its purpose and objectives and is as follows: - a series of actions has been proposed, taking into account the factors defined in the study, is capable of composing a strategic technology of “soft power”; - resources and strategies of “soft power” were identified, a comparative analysis of the institutions of the US, EU, Russia and China conducting “soft power” was carried out, the role of the main factors in increasing the “soft power” of these states was assessed; - the key features of cultural-humanitarian component of “soft power” of Kazakhstan were identified, the importance of taking into account the regional perception of states to increase the effectiveness of “soft power” strategies was proved; - for the first time in Kazakhstani science,was made an attempt to consider science and education as the main tools of Kazakhstan’s “soft power”; - relevant recommendations are proposed in the field of conceptual approaches to the formation of the strategy of “soft power” of the Republic of Kazakhstan; - the author proposed his own theory (concept) called “power of attractiveness” (“representative power” “branding power”), which can be applied in the foreign policy of Kazakhstan for recognition, increasing the role, significance and image of the country in the international arena before having an impact on other countries

Russia’s role in the South Caucasus – Possible implications of Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union for regional security

Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) assumes that it is possible to identify certain regional “clusters” regarding common security threats. Essential elements of a Regional Security Complex (RSC) are an anarchic structure, boundary, social construction (patterns of amity and enmity) and polarity (the distribution of power). RSCs are durable, but not permanent features in the international system. This thesis focuses on Russia’s role in the post-Soviet RSC. Russia is the central regional power, but at the same time it also holds the status of a great power, which makes it special. It is argued that the South Caucasus can be seen as a subcomplex of this RSC. The Russian influence on the security dynamics in this region is analyzed against the background of the recent developments in Armenian-Russian relations, which serve as a case-study. The thesis aims to assess the impact of change caused by Russia’s interference in the South Caucasian subcomplex. Although Russia and the South Caucasus are part of the same RSC, the analysis shows that Russia’s role in the Armenian case follows the same logic as great power penetration (GPP). Thus, the consequences of its involvement could be similar as well and include changes in patterns of amity and enmity or in the distribution of power. They could also lead to changes in the boundary, which means the subcomplex could “break apart”. Eventually, the study comes to the result that by looking at the Russian-Armenian relationship, it is possible to argue that the distribution of power in the region has already shifted to some extent. Patterns of amity and enmity still remain a uniting element, but they could also be affected by future developments. If geopolitical tensions continue, the boundary could be changed as well, but Armenia’s mere decision for the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is not a sufficient indicator for this. Russia’s role in the post-Soviet RSC can be characterized as very dominant; the RSC is clearly centred on Russia. However, subcomplexes with their own regional security dynamics continue to exist, albeit the post-Soviet RSC is, indeed, possibly (again) in danger of a Russian “takeover”.http://www.ester.ee/record=b449977

Role competition in Central Asia? Network analysis, role theory and great power regionalism: a framework for analysis

The present thesis develops an analytical framework that rests on three pillars: 1. Network Analysis; 2. Role Theory; 3. Neorealism. These theoretical and analytical approaches have been hitherto disconnected in IR and FPA, despite their potential for synthesis. Through a critical appreciation of each approach, the author highlights their interoperability and reconceptualizes central themes in international relations such as the agency-structure debate, the concept of power, interdependence and institutions, and the security dilemma. It comes to the conclusion that the analysis of real-world phenomena needs to take into account both material and ideational factors, since ideational and material structures are inextricably interlinked in the conduct of foreign policy. The second part of the thesis applies this analytical framework to the regional case of Central Asia, and traces how great powers have engaged in role competition between 2007 and 2022. In an interpretative content analysis, it finds 13 roles conceptualized by the United States and Russia respectively; five of them are the most salient ones. In addition, it explores the roles enacted by the European Union and China. The main finding is that the great powers engage in competitive role-play and reject each other’s role conceptions; create conflicting role expectations; and eventually find themselves in ideational security dilemmas that are partially characterized by capacity-identity gaps. Importantly, the case demonstrates the interdependence of regional subsystems through international feedback loops. Role location processes in the Central Asian network cluster contributed to the deterioration of great power relations – and conflictual great power relations shaped the regional context

Communication Trends in the Post-Literacy Era: Polylingualism, Multimodality and Multiculturalism As Preconditions for New Creativity : monograph

The monograph presents the research results of the discussion held at the Fifth International Research Conference “Communication trends in the post-literacy era: polylingualism, multimodality and multiculturalism as prerequisites for new creativity” (Ekaterinburg, UrFU, November 26–28, 2020). The book is a result of joint efforts by the research group “Multilingualism and Interculturalism in the Post-Literacy Era”. The research results are presented in the form of sections that consistently reveal the features of modern media culture; its contradictory manifestations associated with both positive and negative consequences of mass media use; the positive role of new media in education during the COVID‑19 pandemic; creative potential of contemporary art and mediation, contemporary art and media environment. The collective monograph will be of interest to researchers in media culture, media education, media art and tools of social networks and new media in modern education, primarily in teaching foreign languages and Russian as a foreign language, in the professional education of journalists and specialists in the field of media communications.Published with the support of RFBR grant 20‑011‑22081 “The Fifth International Research Conference “Communication trends in the post-literacy era: polylingualism, multimodality and multiculturalism as prerequisites for new creativity”