218 research outputs found
The effects of investor emotions sentiments on crude oil returns: A time and frequency dynamics analysis
In this paper, we use wavelet coherence analysis to find that sentiment has a significant effect on crude oil returns that lasts over various investment horizons. While oil returns are positively associated with the sentiments of optimism and trust, it is negatively linked to fear and anger. These relations are more pronounced over the medium and the long term. Additionally, we find that short-term oil returns are relatively more sentiment-sensitive during turbulent periods than in normal conditions. These results highlight the importance of sentiment and investor psychology in the crude oil market
Low-dimensionality and predictability of solar wind and global magnetosphere during magnetic storms
The storm index SYM-H, the solar wind velocity v, and interplanetary magnetic
field Bz show no signatures of low-dimensional dynamics in quiet periods, but
tests for determinism in the time series indicate that SYM-H exhibits a
significant low-dimensional component during storm time, suggesting that
self-organization takes place during magnetic storms. Even though our analysis
yields no discernible change in determinism during magnetic storms for the
solar wind parameters, there are significant enhancement of the predictability
and exponents measuring persistence. Thus, magnetic storms are typically
preceded by an increase in the persistence of the solar wind dynamics, and this
increase is also present in the magnetospheric response to the solar wind
Chaos Analysis Framework: How to Safely Identify and Quantify Time-Series Dynamics
Within this chapter, a practical introduction to a nonlinear analysis framework tailored for time-series data is provided, enabling the safe quantification of underlying evolutionary dynamics, which describe the referring empirical data generating process. Furthermore, its application provides the possibility to distinct between underlying chaotic versus stochastic dynamics. In addition, an optional combination with (strange) attractor reconstruction algorithms to visualize the denoted system’s dynamics is possible. Since the framework builds upon a large variety of algorithms and methods, its application is by far trivial, especially, in hindsight of reconstruction algorithms for (strange) attractors. Therefore, a general implementation and application guideline for the correct algorithm specifications and avoidance of pitfalls or other unfavorable settings is proposed and respective (graphical) empirical examples are shown. It is intended to provide the readers the possibility to incorporate the proposed analysis framework themselves and to conduct the analyses and reconstructions properly with correct specifications and to be knowledgeable about misleading propositions or parameter choices. Finally, concluding remarks, future avenues of research and future refinements of the framework are proposed
Essays on the nonlinear and nonstochastic nature of stock market data
The nature and structure of stock-market price dynamics is an area of ongoing and rigourous scientific debate. For almost three decades, most emphasis has been given on upholding the concepts of Market Efficiency and rational investment behaviour. Such an approach has favoured the development of numerous linear and nonlinear models mainly of stochastic foundations. Advances in mathematics have shown that nonlinear deterministic processes i.e. "chaos" can produce sequences that appear random to linear statistical techniques. Till recently, investment finance has been a science based on linearity and stochasticity. Hence it is important that studies of Market Efficiency include investigations of chaotic determinism and power laws. As far as chaos is concerned, there are rather mixed or inconclusive research results, prone with controversy. This inconclusiveness is attributed to two things: the nature of stock market time series, which are highly volatile and contaminated with a substantial amount of noise of largely unknown structure, and the lack of appropriate robust statistical testing procedures. In order to overcome such difficulties, within this thesis it is shown empirically and for the first time how one can combine novel techniques from recent chaotic and signal analysis literature, under a univariate time series analysis framework. Three basic methodologies are investigated: Recurrence analysis, Surrogate Data and Wavelet transforms. Recurrence Analysis is used to reveal qualitative and quantitative evidence of nonlinearity and nonstochasticity for a number of stock markets. It is then demonstrated how Surrogate Data, under a statistical hypothesis testing framework, can be simulated to provide similar evidence. Finally, it is shown how wavelet transforms can be applied in order to reveal various salient features of the market data and provide a platform for nonparametric regression and denoising. The results indicate that without the invocation of any parametric model-based assumptions, one can easily deduce that there is more to linearity and stochastic randomness in the data. Moreover, substantial evidence of recurrent patterns and aperiodicities is discovered which can be attributed to chaotic dynamics. These results are therefore very consistent with existing research indicating some types of nonlinear dependence in financial data. Concluding, the value of this thesis lies in its contribution to the overall evidence on Market Efficiency and chaotic determinism in financial markets. The main implication here is that the theory of equilibrium pricing in financial markets may need reconsideration in order to accommodate for the structures revealed
A Style-Based Generator Architecture for Generative Adversarial Networks
We propose an alternative generator architecture for generative adversarial
networks, borrowing from style transfer literature. The new architecture leads
to an automatically learned, unsupervised separation of high-level attributes
(e.g., pose and identity when trained on human faces) and stochastic variation
in the generated images (e.g., freckles, hair), and it enables intuitive,
scale-specific control of the synthesis. The new generator improves the
state-of-the-art in terms of traditional distribution quality metrics, leads to
demonstrably better interpolation properties, and also better disentangles the
latent factors of variation. To quantify interpolation quality and
disentanglement, we propose two new, automated methods that are applicable to
any generator architecture. Finally, we introduce a new, highly varied and
high-quality dataset of human faces.Comment: CVPR 2019 final versio
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