Topics in inference and decision-making with partial knowledge

Two essential elements needed in the process of inference and decision-making are prior probabilities and likelihood functions. When both of these components are known accurately and precisely, the Bayesian approach provides a consistent and coherent solution to the problems of inference and decision-making. In many situations, however, either one or both of the above components may not be known, or at least may not be known precisely. This problem of partial knowledge about prior probabilities and likelihood functions is addressed. There are at least two ways to cope with this lack of precise knowledge: robust methods, and interval-valued methods. First, ways of modeling imprecision and indeterminacies in prior probabilities and likelihood functions are examined; then how imprecision in the above components carries over to the posterior probabilities is examined. Finally, the problem of decision making with imprecise posterior probabilities and the consequences of such actions are addressed. Application areas where the above problems may occur are in statistical pattern recognition problems, for example, the problem of classification of high-dimensional multispectral remote sensing image data

A Bayesian Framework for Collaborative Multi-Source Signal Detection

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework to detect multiple signals embedded in noisy observations from a sensor array. For various states of knowledge on the communication channel and the noise at the receiving sensors, a marginalization procedure based on recent tools of finite random matrix theory, in conjunction with the maximum entropy principle, is used to compute the hypothesis selection criterion. Quite remarkably, explicit expressions for the Bayesian detector are derived which enable to decide on the presence of signal sources in a noisy wireless environment. The proposed Bayesian detector is shown to outperform the classical power detector when the noise power is known and provides very good performance for limited knowledge on the noise power. Simulations corroborate the theoretical results and quantify the gain achieved using the proposed Bayesian framework.Comment: 15 pages, 9 pictures, Submitted to IEEE Trans. on Signal Processin

Efficiency of a thermodynamic motor at maximum power

Several recent theories address the efficiency of a macroscopic thermodynamic motor at maximum power and question the so-called "Curzon-Ahlborn (CA) efficiency." Considering the entropy exchanges and productions in an n-sources motor, we study the maximization of its power and show that the controversies are partly due to some imprecision in the maximization variables. When power is maximized with respect to the system temperatures, these temperatures are proportional to the square root of the corresponding source temperatures, which leads to the CA formula for a bi-thermal motor. On the other hand, when power is maximized with respect to the transitions durations, the Carnot efficiency of a bi-thermal motor admits the CA efficiency as a lower bound, which is attained if the duration of the adiabatic transitions can be neglected. Additionally, we compute the energetic efficiency, or "sustainable efficiency," which can be defined for n sources, and we show that it has no other universal upper bound than 1, but that in certain situations, favorable for power production, it does not exceed 1/2

An introduction to DSmT

The management and combination of uncertain, imprecise, fuzzy and even paradoxical or high conflicting sources of information has always been, and still remains today, of primal importance for the development of reliable modern information systems involving artificial reasoning. In this introduction, we present a survey of our recent theory of plausible and paradoxical reasoning, known as Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT), developed for dealing with imprecise, uncertain and conflicting sources of information. We focus our presentation on the foundations of DSmT and on its most important rules of combination, rather than on browsing specific applications of DSmT available in literature. Several simple examples are given throughout this presentation to show the efficiency and the generality of this new approach

Carnot cycle for an oscillator

Carnot established in 1824 that the efficiency of cyclic engines operating between a hot bath at absolute temperature $T_{hot}$ and a bath at a lower temperature $T_{cold}$ cannot exceed $1-T_{cold}/T_{hot}$. We show that linear oscillators alternately in contact with hot and cold baths obey this principle in the quantum as well as in the classical regime. The expression of the work performed is derived from a simple prescription. Reversible and non-reversible cycles are illustrated. The paper begins with historical considerations and is essentially self-contained.Comment: 19 pages, 3 figures, sumitted to European Journal of Physics Changed content: Fluctuations are considere

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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Hydrogen-Helium Mixtures in the Interiors of Giant Planets

Equilibrium properties of hydrogen-helium mixtures under conditions similar to the interior of giant gas planets are studied by means of first principle density functional molecular dynamics simulations. We investigate the molecular and atomic fluid phase of hydrogen with and without the presence of helium for densities between $\rho=0.19$ g$$cm$^{-3}$ and $\rho=0.66$ g$$cm$^{-3}$ and temperatures from $T=500$K to $T=8000 {K}$. Helium has a crucial influence on the ionic and electronic structure of the liquid. Hydrogen molecule bonds are shortened as well as strengthened which leads to more stable hydrogen molecules compared to pure hydrogen for the same thermodynamic conditions. The {\it ab initio} treatment of the mixture enables us to investigate the validity of the widely used linear mixing approximation. We find deviations of up to 8% in energy and volume from linear mixing at constant pressure in the region of molecular dissociation.Comment: 13 pages, 18 figures, submitted to PR