Predicting crop yields and soil‐plant nitrogen dynamics in the US Corn Belt

We used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to predict and explain maize and soybean yields, phenology, and soil water and nitrogen (N) dynamics during the growing season in Iowa, USA. Historical, current and forecasted weather data were used to drive simulations, which were released in public four weeks after planting. In this paper, we (1) describe the methodology used to perform forecasts; (2) evaluate model prediction accuracy against data collected from 10 locations over four years; and (3) identify inputs that are key in forecasting yields and soil N dynamics. We found that the predicted median yield at planting was a very good indicator of end‐of‐season yields (relative root mean square error [RRMSE] of ∼20%). For reference, the prediction at maturity, when all the weather was known, had a RRMSE of 14%. The good prediction at planting time was explained by the existence of shallow water tables, which decreased model sensitivity to unknown summer precipitation by 50–64%. Model initial conditions and management information accounted for one‐fourth of the variation in maize yield. End of season model evaluations indicated that the model simulated well crop phenology (R2 = 0.88), root depth (R2 = 0.83), biomass production (R2 = 0.93), grain yield (R2 = 0.90), plant N uptake (R2 = 0.87), soil moisture (R2 = 0.42), soil temperature (R2 = 0.93), soil nitrate (R2 = 0.77), and water table depth (R2 = 0.41). We concluded that model set‐up by the user (e.g. inclusion of water table), initial conditions, and early season measurements are very important for accurate predictions of soil water, N and crop yields in this environment

Remote Sensing for Precision Nitrogen Management

This book focuses on the fundamental and applied research of the non-destructive estimation and diagnosis of crop leaf and plant nitrogen status and in-season nitrogen management strategies based on leaf sensors, proximal canopy sensors, unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing, manned aerial remote sensing and satellite remote sensing technologies. Statistical and machine learning methods are used to predict plant-nitrogen-related parameters with sensor data or sensor data together with soil, landscape, weather and/or management information. Different sensing technologies or different modelling approaches are compared and evaluated. Strategies are developed to use crop sensing data for in-season nitrogen recommendations to improve nitrogen use efficiency and protect the environment

Statistical and machine learning methods evaluated for incorporating soil and weather into corn nitrogen recommendations

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer recommendation tools could be improved for estimating corn (Zea mays L.) N needs by incorporating site-specific soil and weather information. However, an evaluation of analytical methods is needed to determine the success of incorporating this information. The objectives of this research were to evaluate statistical and machine learning (ML) algorithms for utilizing soil and weather information for improving corn N recommendation tools. Eight algorithms [stepwise, ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso), elastic net regression, principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares regression (PLSR), decision tree, and random forest] were evaluated using a dataset containing measured soil and weather variables from a regional database. The performance was evaluated based on how well these algorithms predicted corn economically optimal N rates (EONR) from 49 sites in the U.S. Midwest. Multiple algorithm modeling scenarios were examined with and without adjustment for multicollinearity and inclusion of two-way interaction terms to identify the soil and weather variables that could improve three dissimilar N recommendation tools. Results showed the out-of-sample root-mean-square error (RMSE) for the decision tree and some random forest modeling scenarios were better than the stepwise or ridge regression, but not significantly different than any other algorithm. The best ML algorithm for adjusting N recommendation tools was the random forest approach (r2 increased between 0.72 and 0.84 and the RMSE decreased between 41 and 94 kg N ha−1). However, the ML algorithm that best adjusted tools while using a minimal amount of variables was the decision tree. This method was simple, needing only one or two variables (regardless of modeling scenario) and provided moderate improvement as r2 values increased between 0.15 and 0.51 and RMSE decreased between 16 and 66 kg N ha−1. Using ML algorithms to adjust N recommendation tools with soil and weather information shows promising results for better N management in the U.S. Midwest

Statistical and machine learning methods evaluated for incorporating soil and weather into corn nitrogen recommendations

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer recommendation tools could be improved for estimating corn (Zea mays L.) N needs by incorporating site-specific soil and weather information. However, an evaluation of analytical methods is needed to determine the success of incorporating this information. The objectives of this research were to evaluate statistical and machine learning (ML) algorithms for utilizing soil and weather information for improving corn N recommendation tools. Eight algorithms [stepwise, ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso), elastic net regression, principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares regression (PLSR), decision tree, and random forest] were evaluated using a dataset containing measured soil and weather variables from a regional database. The performance was evaluated based on how well these algorithms predicted corn economically optimal N rates (EONR) from 49 sites in the U.S. Midwest. Multiple algorithm modeling scenarios were examined with and without adjustment for multicollinearity and inclusion of two-way interaction terms to identify the soil and weather variables that could improve three dissimilar N recommendation tools. Results showed the out-of-sample root-mean-square error (RMSE) for the decision tree and some random forest modeling scenarios were better than the stepwise or ridge regression, but not significantly different than any other algorithm. The best ML algorithm for adjusting N recommendation tools was the random forest approach (r2 increased between 0.72 and 0.84 and the RMSE decreased between 41 and 94 kg N ha−1). However, the ML algorithm that best adjusted tools while using a minimal amount of variables was the decision tree. This method was simple, needing only one or two variables (regardless of modeling scenario) and provided moderate improvement as r2 values increased between 0.15 and 0.51 and RMSE decreased between 16 and 66 kg N ha−1. Using ML algorithms to adjust N recommendation tools with soil and weather information shows promising results for better N management in the U.S. Midwest

Predicting spatiotemporal yield variability to aid arable precision agriculture in New Zealand : a case study of maize-grain crop production in the Waikato region : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Agriculture and Horticulture at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

Precision agriculture attempts to manage within-field spatial variability by applying suitable inputs at the appropriate time, place, and amount. To achieve this, delineation of field-specific management zones (MZs), representing significantly different yield potentials are required. To date, the effectiveness of utilising MZs in New Zealand has potentially been limited due to a lack of emphasis on the interactions between spatiotemporal factors such as soil texture, crop yield, and rainfall. To fill this research gap, this thesis aims to improve the process of delineating MZs by modelling spatiotemporal interactions between spatial crop yield and other complementary factors. Data was collected from five non-irrigated field sites in the Waikato region, based on the availability of several years of maize harvest data. To remove potential yield measurement errors and improve the accuracy of spatial interpolation for yield mapping, a customised filtering algorithm was developed. A supervised machine-learning approach for predicting spatial yield was then developed using several prediction models (stepwise multiple linear regression, feedforward neural network, CART decision tree, random forest, Cubist regression, and XGBoost). To provide insights into managing spatiotemporal yield variability, predictor importance analysis was conducted to identify important yield predictors. The spatial filtering method reduced the root mean squared errors of kriging interpolation for all available years (2014, 2015, 2017 and 2018) in a tested site, suggesting that the method developed in R programme was effective for improving the accuracy of the yield maps. For predicting spatial yield, random forest produced the highest prediction accuracies (R² = 0.08 - 0.50), followed by XGBoost (R² = 0.06 - 0.39). Temporal variables (solar radiation, growing degree days (GDD) and rainfall) were proven to be salient yield predictors. This research demonstrates the viability of these models to predict subfield spatial yield, using input data that is inexpensive and readily available to arable farms in New Zealand. The novel approach employed by this thesis may provide opportunities to improve arable farming input-use efficiency and reduce its environmental impact

Prediction of Pest Insect Appearance Using Sensors and Machine Learning

The appearance of pest insects can lead to a loss in yield if farmers do not respond in a timely manner to suppress their spread. Occurrences and numbers of insects can be monitored through insect traps, which include their permanent touring and checking of their condition. Another more efficient way is to set up sensor devices with a camera at the traps that will photograph the traps and forward the images to the Internet, where the pest insect’s appearance will be predicted by image analysis. Weather conditions, temperature and relative humidity are the parameters that affect the appearance of some pests, such as Helicoverpa armigera. This paper presents a model of machine learning that can predict the appearance of insects during a season on a daily basis, taking into account the air temperature and relative humidity. Several machine learning algorithms for classification were applied and their accuracy for the prediction of insect occurrence was presented (up to 76.5%). Since the data used for testing were given in chronological order according to the days when the measurement was performed, the existing model was expanded to take into account the periods of three and five days. The extended method showed better accuracy of prediction and a lower percentage of false detections. In the case of a period of five days, the accuracy of the affected detections was 86.3%, while the percentage of false detections was 11%. The proposed model of machine learning can help farmers to detect the occurrence of pests and save the time and resources needed to check the fields

California Almond Yield Prediction at the Orchard Level With a Machine Learning Approach.

California's almond growers face challenges with nitrogen management as new legislatively mandated nitrogen management strategies for almond have been implemented. These regulations require that growers apply nitrogen to meet, but not exceed, the annual N demand for crop and tree growth and nut production. To accurately predict seasonal nitrogen demand, therefore, growers need to estimate block-level almond yield early in the growing season so that timely N management decisions can be made. However, methods to predict almond yield are not currently available. To fill this gap, we have developed statistical models using the Stochastic Gradient Boosting, a machine learning approach, for early season yield projection and mid-season yield update over individual orchard blocks. We collected yield records of 185 orchards, dating back to 2005, from the major almond growers in the Central Valley of California. A large set of variables were extracted as predictors, including weather and orchard characteristics from remote sensing imagery. Our results showed that the predicted orchard-level yield agreed well with the independent yield records. For both the early season (March) and mid-season (June) predictions, a coefficient of determination (R 2) of 0.71, and a ratio of performance to interquartile distance (RPIQ) of 2.6 were found on average. We also identified several key determinants of yield based on the modeling results. Almond yield increased dramatically with the orchard age until about 7 years old in general, and the higher long-term mean maximum temperature during April-June enhanced the yield in the southern orchards, while a larger amount of precipitation in March reduced the yield, especially in northern orchards. Remote sensing metrics such as annual maximum vegetation indices were also dominant variables for predicting the yield potential. While these results are promising, further refinement is needed; the availability of larger data sets and incorporation of additional variables and methodologies will be required for the model to be used as a fertilization decision support tool for growers. Our study has demonstrated the potential of automatic almond yield prediction to assist growers to manage N adaptively, comply with mandated requirements, and ensure industry sustainability