355 research outputs found
Limits for Rumor Spreading in Stochastic Populations
Biological systems can share and collectively process information to yield emergent effects, despite inherent noise in communication. While man-made systems often employ intricate structural solutions to overcome noise, the structure of many biological systems is more amorphous. It is not well understood how communication noise may affect the computational repertoire of such groups. To approach this question we consider the basic collective task of rumor spreading, in which information from few knowledgeable sources must reliably flow into the rest of the population.
In order to study the effect of communication noise on the ability of groups that lack stable structures to efficiently solve this task, we consider a noisy version of the uniform PULL model. We prove a lower bound which implies that, in the presence of even moderate levels of noise that affect all facets of the communication, no scheme can significantly outperform the trivial one in which agents have to wait until directly interacting with the sources. Our results thus show an exponential separation between the uniform PUSH and PULL communication models in the presence of noise. Such separation may be interpreted as suggesting that, in order to achieve efficient rumor spreading, a system must exhibit either some degree of structural stability or, alternatively, some facet of the communication which is immune to noise.
We corroborate our theoretical findings with a new analysis of experimental data regarding recruitment in Cataglyphis Niger desert ants
A process of rumor scotching on finite populations
Rumor spreading is a ubiquitous phenomenon in social and technological
networks. Traditional models consider that the rumor is propagated by pairwise
interactions between spreaders and ignorants. Spreaders can become stiflers
only after contacting spreaders or stiflers. Here we propose a model that
considers the traditional assumptions, but stiflers are active and try to
scotch the rumor to the spreaders. An analytical treatment based on the theory
of convergence of density dependent Markov chains is developed to analyze how
the final proportion of ignorants behaves asymptotically in a finite
homogeneously mixing population. We perform Monte Carlo simulations in random
graphs and scale-free networks and verify that the results obtained for
homogeneously mixing populations can be approximated for random graphs, but are
not suitable for scale-free networks. Furthermore, regarding the process on a
heterogeneous mixing population, we obtain a set of differential equations that
describes the time evolution of the probability that an individual is in each
state. Our model can be applied to study systems in which informed agents try
to stop the rumor propagation. In addition, our results can be considered to
develop optimal information dissemination strategies and approaches to control
rumor propagation.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figure
Epidemic processes in complex networks
In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence
for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide
range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of
real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and
nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of
epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of
dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic
spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel
analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical
relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity
concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful
theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear.
Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists
share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar
models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and
innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the
paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results
concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally,
the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in
coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio
Identifying spatial invasion of pandemics on metapopulation networks via anatomizing arrival history
Spatial spread of infectious diseases among populations via the mobility of
humans is highly stochastic and heterogeneous. Accurate forecast/mining of the
spread process is often hard to be achieved by using statistical or mechanical
models. Here we propose a new reverse problem, which aims to identify the
stochastically spatial spread process itself from observable information
regarding the arrival history of infectious cases in each subpopulation. We
solved the problem by developing an efficient optimization algorithm based on
dynamical programming, which comprises three procedures: i, anatomizing the
whole spread process among all subpopulations into disjoint componential
patches; ii, inferring the most probable invasion pathways underlying each
patch via maximum likelihood estimation; iii, recovering the whole process by
assembling the invasion pathways in each patch iteratively, without burdens in
parameter calibrations and computer simulations. Based on the entropy theory,
we introduced an identifiability measure to assess the difficulty level that an
invasion pathway can be identified. Results on both artificial and empirical
metapopulation networks show the robust performance in identifying actual
invasion pathways driving pandemic spread.Comment: 14pages, 8 figures; Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Cybernetic
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