153 research outputs found
Limit theorems for a general stochastic rumour model
We study a general stochastic rumour model in which an ignorant individual
has a certain probability of becoming a stifler immediately upon hearing the
rumour. We refer to this special kind of stifler as an uninterested individual.
Our model also includes distinct rates for meetings between two spreaders in
which both become stiflers or only one does, so that particular cases are the
classical Daley-Kendall and Maki-Thompson models. We prove a Law of Large
Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the proportions of those who ultimately
remain ignorant and those who have heard the rumour but become uninterested in
it.Comment: 13 pages, to appear in SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematic
On the behaviour of a rumour process with random stifling
We propose a realistic generalization of the Maki-Thompson rumour model by
assuming that each spreader ceases to propagate the rumour right after being
involved in a random number of stifling experiences. We consider the process
with a general initial configuration and establish the asymptotic behaviour
(and its fluctuation) of the ultimate proportion of ignorants as the population
size grows to . Our approach leads to explicit formulas so that the
limiting proportion of ignorants and its variance can be computed.Comment: 12 pages, to appear in Environmental Modelling & Softwar
A large deviations principle for the Maki-Thompson rumour model
We consider the stochastic model for the propagation of a rumour within a
population which was formulated by Maki and Thompson. Sudbury established that,
as the population size tends to infinity, the proportion of the population
never hearing the rumour converges in probability to . Watson later
derived the asymptotic normality of a suitably scaled version of this
proportion. We prove a corresponding large deviations principle, with an
explicit formula for the rate function.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figure
Laws of large numbers for the frog model on the complete graph
The frog model is a stochastic model for the spreading of an epidemic on a
graph, in which a dormant particle starts to perform a simple random walk on
the graph and to awake other particles, once it becomes active. We study two
versions of the frog model on the complete graph with vertices. In the
first version we consider, active particles have geometrically distributed
lifetimes. In the second version, the displacement of each awakened particle
lasts until it hits a vertex already visited by the process. For each model, we
prove that as , the trajectory of the process is well
approximated by a three-dimensional discrete-time dynamical system. We also
study the long-term behavior of the corresponding deterministic systems
Rumour Processes on N
We study four discrete time stochastic systems on \bbN modeling processes
of rumour spreading. The involved individuals can either have an active or a
passive role, speaking up or asking for the rumour. The appetite in spreading
or hearing the rumour is represented by a set of random variables whose
distributions may depend on the individuals. Our goal is to understand - based
on those random variables distribution - whether the probability of having an
infinite set of individuals knowing the rumour is positive or not
A spatial stochastic model for rumor transmission
We consider an interacting particle system representing the spread of a rumor
by agents on the -dimensional integer lattice. Each agent may be in any of
the three states belonging to the set {0,1,2}. Here 0 stands for ignorants, 1
for spreaders and 2 for stiflers. A spreader tells the rumor to any of its
(nearest) ignorant neighbors at rate \lambda. At rate \alpha a spreader becomes
a stifler due to the action of other (nearest neighbor) spreaders. Finally,
spreaders and stiflers forget the rumor at rate one. We study sufficient
conditions under which the rumor either becomes extinct or survives with
positive probability
Phase transition for the Maki-Thompson rumour model on a small-world network
We consider the Maki-Thompson model for the stochastic propagation of a
rumour within a population. We extend the original hypothesis of homogenously
mixed population by allowing for a small-world network embedding the model.
This structure is realized starting from a -regular ring and by inserting,
in the average, additional links in such a way that and are
tuneable parameter for the population architecture. We prove that this system
exhibits a transition between regimes of localization (where the final number
of stiflers is at most logarithmic in the population size) and propagation
(where the final number of stiflers grows algebraically with the population
size) at a finite value of the network parameter . A quantitative estimate
for the critical value of is obtained via extensive numerical simulations.Comment: 24 pages, 4 figure
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