Judgement and supply chain dynamics

Forecasting demand at the individual stock-keeping-unit (SKU) level often necessitates the use of statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing. In some organizations, however, statistical forecasts will be subject to judgemental adjustments by managers. Although a number of empirical and ‘laboratory’ studies have been performed in this area, no formal OR modelling has been conducted to offer insights into the impact such adjustments may have on supply chain performance and the potential development of mitigation mechanisms. This is because of the associated dynamic complexity and the situation-specific nature of the problem at hand. In conjunction with appropriate stock control rules, demand forecasts help decide how much to order. It is a common practice that replenishment orders may also be subject to judgemental intervention, adding further to the dynamic system complexity and interdependence. The system dynamics (SD) modelling method can help advance knowledge in this area, where mathematical modelling cannot accommodate the associated complexity. This study, which constitutes part of a UK government funded (EPSRC) project, uses SD models to evaluate the effects of forecasting and ordering adjustments for a wide set of scenarios involving: three different inventory policies; seven different (combinations of) points of intervention; and four different (combinations of) types of judgmental intervention (optimistic and pessimistic). The results enable insights to be gained into the performance of the entire supply chain. An agenda for further research concludes the paper

Methodological approach to study the dynamics of production networks: Discrete-event simulation modelling

This paper shows how discrete-event simulation represents an appropriate tool for approaching the dynamics of production networks. Three important factors influencing production network dynamics, specifically finite production capacity, manufacturing lead time, and its variability are discussed and a basic discrete-event simulation model is presented. Such model, which in its basic form represents a simple retail/distribution two-stage supply chain, is then extended in order to take into account those factors that can not be included in a classical control theoretical model

The impact of the supply chain structure on bullwhip effect

The aim of this paper is to study how the structural factors of supply chain networks, (i.e. the number of echelons, the number of nodes and the distribution of links) impact on its dynamics performance (i.e. bullwhip effect). To do so, we systematically model multiple structures according to a robust design of experiments and simulate such structures under two different market demand scenarios. The former emulates a stationary condition of the market, while the latter reproduce the extreme volatility and impetuous alteration of the market produced by the current economic recession. Results contribute to the scientific debate on supply chain dynamics by showing how the advocated number of echelons is not the only structural factor that exacerbates the bullwhip effect. In particular, under a sudden shock in market demand, the number of nodes and the divergence of the supply chain network affect the supply chain performance.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad DPI2013-44461-P/DP

Why do nonlinearities matter? The repercussions of linear assumptions on the dynamic behaviour of assemble-to-order systems

The hybrid assembly-to-order (ATO) supply chain, combining make-to-stock and make-to-order (MTS-MTO) production, separated by a customer order decoupling point (CODP), is well recognised in many sectors. Based on the well-established Inventory and Order Based Production Control Systems (the IOBPCS family), we develop a hybrid ATO system dynamics model and analytically study the impact of nonlinearities on its dynamic performance. Nonlinearities play an important, sometimes even a dominant, role in influencing the dynamic performance of supply chain systems. However, most IOBPCS based analytical studies assume supply chain systems are completely linear and thereby greatly limit the applicability of published results, making it difficult to fully explain and describe oscillations caused by internal factors. We address this gap by analytically exploring the non-negative order and capacity constraint nonlinearities present in an ATO system. By adopting nonlinear control engineering and simulation approaches, we reveal that, depending on the mean and amplitude of the demand, the non-negative order and capacity constraints in the ATO system may occur and their significant impact on system dynamics performance should be carefully considered. Failing to monitor non-negative order constraints may underestimate the mean level of inventory and overestimate the inventory recovery speed. Sub-assemblers may suffer increased inventory cost (i.e. the consequence of varying inventory levels and recovery speed) if capacity and non-negative order constraints are not considered at their production site. Future research should consider the optimal trade-off design between CODP inventory and capacity and the exploration of delivery lead-time dynamics

The effects of integrating management judgement into OUT levels: in or out of context?

Physical inventories constitute a significant proportion of companies’ investments in today's competitive environment. The trade-off between customer service levels and inventory reserves is addressed in practice by statistical inventory software solutions; given the tremendous number of Stock Keeping Units (SKUs) that contemporary organizations deal with, such solutions are fully automated. However, empirical evidence suggests that managers habitually judgementally adjust the output of such solutions, such as replenishment orders or re-order levels. This research is concerned with the value being added, or not, when statistically derived inventory related decisions (Order-Up-To, OUT, levels in particular) are judgementally adjusted. We aim at developing our current understanding on the effects of incorporating human judgement into inventory decisions; to our knowledge such effects do not appear to have been studied empirically before and this is the first endeavour to do so. A number of research questions are examined and a simulation experiment is performed, using an extended database of approximately 1,800 SKUs from the electronics industry, in order to evaluate human judgement effects. The linkage between adjustments and their justification is also evaluated; given the apparent lack of comprehensive empirical evidence in this area, including the field of demand forecasting, this is a contribution in its own right. Insights are offered to academics, to facilitate further research in this area, practitioners, to enable more constructive intervention into statistical inventory solutions, and software developers, to consider the interface with human decision makers

The influence of online review adoption on the profitability of capacitated supply chains

The paper explores the influence of online review adoption on supply chain profitability under the presence of a capacity constraint. Nowadays, customers increasingly rely on online reviews for decision making, and online retailers regard reviews as a norm. Although online reviews have been extensively examined in marketing disciplines, little research has been conducted to investigate their influence from a supply chain perspective. In addition, previous research has largely focused on how online review information can influence customer purchase behaviours, but ignores the more basic decision: whether and when companies should adopt reviews. This paper examines the online review adoption decision from a capacitated supply chain perspective through mathematical modelling and simulation. The simulation considers the influence of variables including online review adoption decision, capacity constraint level, lost sales penalty level, and product quality estimation on supply chain profitability. Generally, we find that online reviews can bring more profit to the supply chain than without online reviews, although such influence is moderated by the other three variables. The findings reveal the complexity of the contextual variable impacts on online review adoption, and demonstrate that decisions concerning the adoption of online reviews should take all supply-chain-related variables into consideration rather than only aiming for increasing customer orders

Enriching demand forecasts with managerial information to improve inventory replenishment decisions: exploiting judgment and fostering learning

This paper is concerned with analyzing and modelling the effects of judgmental adjustments to replenishment order quantities. Judgmentally adjusting replenishment quantities suggested by specialized (statistical) software packages is the norm in industry. Yet, to date, no studies have attempted to either analytically model this situation or practically characterize its implications in terms of ‘learning’. We consider a newsvendor setting where information available to managers is reflected in the form of a signal that may or may not be correct, and which may or may not be trusted. We show the analytical equivalence of adjusting an order quantity and deriving an entirely new one in light of a necessary update of the estimated demand distribution. Further, we assess the system’s behavior through a simulation experiment on theoretically generated data and we study how to foster learning to efficiently utilize managerial information. Judgmental adjustments are found to be beneficial even when the probability of a correct signal is not known. More generally, some interesting insights emerge into the practice of judgmentally adjusting order quantities

Using simulation to explore the influence of online reviews on supply chain dynamics

This paper extends existing research on the dynamic behaviour of supply chains by including the influence of online reviews. We model an online supply chain which contains customers and one e-commerce retailer. By using simulation, we compare the dynamic performance in a supply chain for two scenarios, namely adopting online review systems and without adopting the systems. The supply chain dynamic performance is measured by bullwhip effect and inventory variance amplification. The results demonstrate that online review systems increase both the bullwhip effect and inventory variance amplification, and this impact can be moderated by product quality, unit mismatch cost, lead time, and customer volatility. We further explore how our model could be extended to include market competition, dual sourcing, online review manipulation, and product returns. As the increase in the bullwhip effect and inventory variance amplification can be associated with supply chain inefficiency, managers who are aware of such consequence induced by online review adoption can make better decisions in supply chain management