Hidden Markov Model-based population synthesis

peer reviewedMicro-simulation travel demand and land use models require a synthetic population, which consists of a set of agents characterized by demographic and socio-economic attributes. Two main families of population synthesis techniques can be distinguished: (a) fitting methods (iterative proportional fitting, updating) and (b) combinatorial optimization methods. During the last few years, a third outperforming family of population synthesis procedures has emerged, i.e., Markov process-based methods such as Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulations. In this paper, an extended Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based approach is presented, which can serve as a better alternative than the existing methods. The approach is characterized by a great flexibility and efficiency in terms of data preparation and model training. The HMM is able to reproduce the structural configuration of a given population from an unlimited number of micro-samples and a marginal distribution. Only one marginal distribution of the considered population can be used as a boundary condition to “guide” the synthesis of the whole population. Model training and testing are performed using the Survey on the Workforce of 2013 and the Belgian National Household Travel Survey of 2010. Results indicate that the HMM method captures the complete heterogeneity of the micro-data contrary to standard fitting approaches. The method provides accurate results as it is able to reproduce the marginal distributions and their corresponding multivariate joint distributions with an acceptable error rate (i.e., SRSME=0.54 for 6 synthesized attributes). Furthermore, the HMM outperforms IPF for small sample sizes, even though the amount of input data is less than that for IPF. Finally, simulations show that the HMM can merge information provided by multiple data sources to allow good population estimates.Floodlan

Statistical modelling of road accident data via graphical models and hierarchical Bayesian models.

The objective of this thesis is to develop statistical models for multivariate road accident data. Two directions of research are followed: graphical modelling for contingency tables cross-classified by accident characteristics, and hierarchical Bayesian models for multiple accident frequencies of different types modelled jointly. Multi-dimensional tables are analysed and it is shown how to use collapsibility to reduce the dimensionality of the analysis without the problems of Simpson's paradox. It is revealed that accident severity and the number of casualties are associated, and that these variables are mainly influenced by the number of vehicles and speed limit. Graphical chain models allow causal hypotheses to be formulated and it is shown how they are valuable tools for empirical research about road accident characteristics. The hierarchical Bayesian models developed combine generalized linear models with random effects. The novelty of these models consists in the joint modelling of multiple response variables. The models account for overdispersion and they are used for accident prediction and for ranking hazardous sites. All models are fully Bayesian and are fitted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. It is shown that multiple response variables models are superior to separate univariate response models. Some theoretical problems are examined regarding the maximum likelihood estimation process for the two parameters negative binomial distribution. A condition is given that is equivalent with unique maximum likelihood estimators. The two directions of research are connected by using graphs to describe the models. In addition, a new Bayesian model selection procedure for contingency tables is proposed. This is based on Gibbs sampling and avoids problems associated with asymptotic tests. The conclusions revealed here can help practitioners to design better safety policies and to spend money more wisely on sites that really are dangerous

Iterative proportional scaling via decomposable submodels for contingency tables

We propose iterative proportional scaling (IPS) via decomposable submodels for maximizing the likelihood function of a hierarchical model for contingency tables. In ordinary IPS the proportional scaling is performed by cycling through the members of the generating class of a hierarchical model. We propose the adjustment of more marginals at each step. This is accomplished by expressing the generating class as a union of decomposable submodels and cycling through the decomposable models. We prove the convergence of our proposed procedure, if the amount of scaling is adjusted properly at each step. We also analyze the proposed algorithms around the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) in detail. The faster convergence of our proposed procedure is illustrated by numerical examples.

Distributed Power Generation Scheduling, Modelling and Expansion Planning

Distributed generation is becoming more important in electrical power systems due to the decentralization of energy production. Within this new paradigm, new approaches for the operation and planning of distributed power generation are yet to be explored. This book deals with distributed energy resources, such as renewable-based distributed generators and energy storage units, among others, considering their operation, scheduling, and planning. Moreover, other interesting aspects such as demand response, electric vehicles, aggregators, and microgrid are also analyzed. All these aspects constitute a new paradigm that is explored in this Special Issue

Methods for Modelling Response Styles

Abstract Ratings scales are ubiquitous in empirical research, especially in the social sciences, where they are used for measuring abstract concepts such as opinion or attitude. Survey questions typically employ rating scales, for example when persons are asked to self-report their perceptions of films or their job satisfaction. Yet, using a rating scale is subjective. Some persons may use only the middle of the rating scale, whilst others choose to use only the extremes. Consequently, persons with the same opinion may very well answer the same survey question using different ratings. This leads to the response style problem: How can we take into account that different ratings can potentially have different meanings to different persons when analyzing such data? This dissertation makes methodological and empirical contributions towards modelling rating scale data while accounting for such differences in response styles. The general approach is to identify individuals in the data which exhibit similar response styles, and to extract substantive information only within such groups. These elements naturally lead to the synthesis of cluster analysis and dimensionality reduction methods. In order to identify these response styles, responses to multiple survey questions are used to assess within-subject rating scale usage. Both non-parametric and parametric approaches are formulated and studied, and accompanying open-source software implementations are made available. The added value of using the developed algorithms is illustrated by applying these to empirical data. Applications range from sensometrics and brand studies, to psychology and political science