19,859 research outputs found
Robust Classification for Imprecise Environments
In real-world environments it usually is difficult to specify target
operating conditions precisely, for example, target misclassification costs.
This uncertainty makes building robust classification systems problematic. We
show that it is possible to build a hybrid classifier that will perform at
least as well as the best available classifier for any target conditions. In
some cases, the performance of the hybrid actually can surpass that of the best
known classifier. This robust performance extends across a wide variety of
comparison frameworks, including the optimization of metrics such as accuracy,
expected cost, lift, precision, recall, and workforce utilization. The hybrid
also is efficient to build, to store, and to update. The hybrid is based on a
method for the comparison of classifier performance that is robust to imprecise
class distributions and misclassification costs. The ROC convex hull (ROCCH)
method combines techniques from ROC analysis, decision analysis and
computational geometry, and adapts them to the particulars of analyzing learned
classifiers. The method is efficient and incremental, minimizes the management
of classifier performance data, and allows for clear visual comparisons and
sensitivity analyses. Finally, we point to empirical evidence that a robust
hybrid classifier indeed is needed for many real-world problems.Comment: 24 pages, 12 figures. To be published in Machine Learning Journal.
For related papers, see http://www.hpl.hp.com/personal/Tom_Fawcett/ROCCH
Supervised Classification: Quite a Brief Overview
The original problem of supervised classification considers the task of
automatically assigning objects to their respective classes on the basis of
numerical measurements derived from these objects. Classifiers are the tools
that implement the actual functional mapping from these measurements---also
called features or inputs---to the so-called class label---or output. The
fields of pattern recognition and machine learning study ways of constructing
such classifiers. The main idea behind supervised methods is that of learning
from examples: given a number of example input-output relations, to what extent
can the general mapping be learned that takes any new and unseen feature vector
to its correct class? This chapter provides a basic introduction to the
underlying ideas of how to come to a supervised classification problem. In
addition, it provides an overview of some specific classification techniques,
delves into the issues of object representation and classifier evaluation, and
(very) briefly covers some variations on the basic supervised classification
task that may also be of interest to the practitioner
Learning When Training Data are Costly: The Effect of Class Distribution on Tree Induction
For large, real-world inductive learning problems, the number of training
examples often must be limited due to the costs associated with procuring,
preparing, and storing the training examples and/or the computational costs
associated with learning from them. In such circumstances, one question of
practical importance is: if only n training examples can be selected, in what
proportion should the classes be represented? In this article we help to answer
this question by analyzing, for a fixed training-set size, the relationship
between the class distribution of the training data and the performance of
classification trees induced from these data. We study twenty-six data sets
and, for each, determine the best class distribution for learning. The
naturally occurring class distribution is shown to generally perform well when
classifier performance is evaluated using undifferentiated error rate (0/1
loss). However, when the area under the ROC curve is used to evaluate
classifier performance, a balanced distribution is shown to perform well. Since
neither of these choices for class distribution always generates the
best-performing classifier, we introduce a budget-sensitive progressive
sampling algorithm for selecting training examples based on the class
associated with each example. An empirical analysis of this algorithm shows
that the class distribution of the resulting training set yields classifiers
with good (nearly-optimal) classification performance
Predicting diabetes-related hospitalizations based on electronic health records
OBJECTIVE: To derive a predictive model to identify patients likely to be hospitalized during the following year due to complications attributed to Type II diabetes. METHODS: A variety of supervised machine learning classification methods were tested and a new method that discovers hidden patient clusters in the positive class (hospitalized) was developed while, at the same time, sparse linear support vector machine classifiers were derived to separate positive samples from the negative ones (non-hospitalized). The convergence of the new method was established and theoretical guarantees were proved on how the classifiers it produces generalize to a test set not seen during training. RESULTS: The methods were tested on a large set of patients from the Boston Medical Center - the largest safety net hospital in New England. It is found that our new joint clustering/classification method achieves an accuracy of 89% (measured in terms of area under the ROC Curve) and yields informative clusters which can help interpret the classification results, thus increasing the trust of physicians to the algorithmic output and providing some guidance towards preventive measures. While it is possible to increase accuracy to 92% with other methods, this comes with increased computational cost and lack of interpretability. The analysis shows that even a modest probability of preventive actions being effective (more than 19%) suffices to generate significant hospital care savings. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models are proposed that can help avert hospitalizations, improve health outcomes and drastically reduce hospital expenditures. The scope for savings is significant as it has been estimated that in the USA alone, about $5.8 billion are spent each year on diabetes-related hospitalizations that could be prevented.Accepted manuscrip
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