Virtual Reality Games for Motor Rehabilitation

This paper presents a fuzzy logic based method to track user satisfaction without the need for devices to monitor users physiological conditions. User satisfaction is the key to any product’s acceptance; computer applications and video games provide a unique opportunity to provide a tailored environment for each user to better suit their needs. We have implemented a non-adaptive fuzzy logic model of emotion, based on the emotional component of the Fuzzy Logic Adaptive Model of Emotion (FLAME) proposed by El-Nasr, to estimate player emotion in UnrealTournament 2004. In this paper we describe the implementation of this system and present the results of one of several play tests. Our research contradicts the current literature that suggests physiological measurements are needed. We show that it is possible to use a software only method to estimate user emotion

Toward Establishing a Realistic Benchmark for Airframe Noise Research: Issues and Challenges

The availability of realistic benchmark configurations is essential to enable the validation of current Computational Aeroacoustic (CAA) methodologies and to further the development of new ideas and concepts that will foster the technologies of the next generation of CAA tools. The selection of a real-world configuration, the subsequent design and fabrication of an appropriate model for testing, and the acquisition of the necessarily comprehensive aeroacoustic data base are critical steps that demand great care and attention. In this paper, a brief account of the nose landing-gear configuration, being proposed jointly by NASA and the Gulfstream Aerospace Company as an airframe noise benchmark, is provided. The underlying thought processes and the resulting building block steps that were taken during the development of this benchmark case are given. Resolution of critical, yet conflicting issues is discussed the desire to maintain geometric fidelity versus model modifications required to accommodate instrumentation; balancing model scale size versus Reynolds number effects; and time, cost, and facility availability versus important parameters like surface finish and installation effects. The decisions taken during the experimental phase of a study can significantly affect the ability of a CAA calculation to reproduce the prevalent flow conditions and associated measurements. For the nose landing gear, the most critical of such issues are highlighted and the compromises made to resolve them are discussed. The results of these compromises will be summarized by examining the positive attributes and shortcomings of this particular benchmark case

Climate in architecture: revision of early origins

This dissertation expands the comprehension of the history of climate in architecture by examining the evolution of the architectural meanings, uses, representations, and simulations of climate between 1800 and the present by means of a historical critical analysis of two scientific artifacts that attempted to model climate for the first time in the fields of geography and architecture. The Naturgemälde (1799 – Alexander von Humboldt) was a type of infographic image that simulated conceptually climate as a global system. The Climatron (1954 – Victor Olgyay) was a laboratory machine that physically simulated climate to test building scaled-models. Primary data was collected in the places where both artifacts were created, and where related archival materials are currently held. The method of analysis compared the models against each other, against contemporary computer simulations of climate for architects, and against their early theoretical foundations. The dissertation reflected on the universality of science in architecture and the role of the places and the technology involved to produce knowledge about climate, while challenged the concept of climate in architecture. It endeavored to find more holistic scientific approaches to design-with-climate that consider hard data alongside art. The tangible outcomes are four articles advised by one of the committee members according to their expertise: MODELS OF CLIMATE AND WEATHER explains the attempts to simulate conceptually and materially climate and weather in order to reduce their complexity to a human scale; ARCHITECTURAL INSIGHTS FROM EARLY DRAWINGS OF CLIMATE AND WEATHER: NATURGEMÄLDE, ISOTHERMS, CLIMATE PORTRAITS, AND THE BIOCLIMATIC CHART, reflects about the paradox of drawing climate and weather; PACKAGING NATURE FOR ARCHITECTS: EARLY ORIGINS OF DESIGNING WITH NATURAL MORPHOLOGY AND CLIMATE, focuses on how ideas travel from environmental sciences into architecture; and UNDERSTANDING THE CHARACTER OF PLACE: HUMBOLDT’S PHYSIOGNOMY OF NATURE, VICTOR OLGYAY’S BIOCLIMATIC REGIONALISM AND THE OUTLINE OF A PHYSIOGNOMY OF CLIMATE examines, from an architectural standpoint, the role of the beauty of climate in the understanding of the character of a place

A cost effectiveness analysis of preventative mitigation options for wildland urban interface homes threatened by wildfire

Fire seasons in the western United States (US) during the years 2000-2006 have put issues surrounding structure protection from wildfires squarely in the public land management limelight with large amounts of money and firefighter exposure needed to protect residences from wildfire. No single modeling tool is currently capable of predicting wildfire ignition risk to WUI residences. This dissertation demonstrates the construction of an existing thirty-year wildfire hazard estimate at each house by pioneering a modeling system that combines results from a structure ignition assessment model (SIAM) with wildfire probability results from an ecological disturbance model (SIMPPLLE). Analysis of western Montana study area data reveal that nearly all of the structure ignition probability results modeled with extreme wildfire weather for visited homes are 1.0. This contrasts the low probabilities (0-0.05) that wildfire will reach the vegetation polygons hosting these houses. The result of the modeling system equation is that the average existing thirty-year ignition hazard estimate across the study area is roughly half of one percent. Two suites of mitigation options are then designed, one concentrating on structural modification and fuels removal / replacement within 100 feet of each home (generally homeowner responsibility), and one using an optimization tool (MAGIS) to schedule thinning and prescribed burning treatments within 1.5 miles of homes (generally land management agency responsibility). The effectiveness of the mitigation options on both the individual model results and the combined average hazard estimates range from zero to 63 percent. While both home ignition zone mitigations and silvicultural treatments can markedly reduce wildfire hazard estimates, the former appear to provide a more linear reduction in hazard as correlated with budgets. Future work should focus on upgrading SIAM, stabilizing SIMPPLLE predictions or substituting a wildfire behavior model, and integrating the modeling system into a user-friendly GIS tool

Spatial processes in environmental economics: empirics and theory

Economic activities are fundamentally influenced by their location in space, which determines the physical and natural environment in which they take place. Likewise, location defines the social context of economic activity prescribing the particular laws, regulations and social norms to which it should conform. Moreover, spatial location defines proximity, which shapes the costs of accessing factor inputs, product markets and other economic and social institutions. In fact, spatial location mediates most forms of interaction, intended and unintended, that may arise from communication and connections between economic agents. These spatial processes have important implications for estimation, policy evaluation and prediction in models of economic activity. This thesis is comprised of two parts. Part I presents a broad range of issues that arise in estimation due to space and frames these as general spatial omitted variables. I explore the use of semi-parametric estimators to identify the parameters of interest in this general model and derive identification conditions for fixed and local adaptive spatial smoothing estimators. The properties of these estimators are contrasted to OLS and spatial econometric estimators. Part II addresses issues in policy evaluation and prediction. I derive an equilibrium sorting model with endogenous tenure choice that can be used to evaluate the general equilibrium welfare effects of policies that affect local environmental quality. Using a series of simulations, motivated by a real world policy application, I contrast the welfare changes derived under this model to a conventional static approach. By allowing for rental and purchase markets the model I develop provides a far richer characterisation of the complex adjustments that propagate through the property market following policy changes and the contrary impact such policies can have upon renters and owners. The usefulness of the model for applied policy analysis is demonstrated through two applications: The Polegate Bypass and Mortgage Interest Deduction reform

Towards simulating the emergence of environmentally responsible behavior among natural resource users : an integration of complex systems theory, machine learning and geographic information science

La gouvernance pour le développement durable comporte de nombreux défis. L'un de ces défis consiste à mieux comprendre les systèmes socio-écologiques gouvernés. Dans de tels systèmes, l'apprentissage par essais et erreurs implique le risque de conséquences inattendues, irréversibles et néfastes. De plus, en raison de la complexité des systèmes socio-écologiques, les leçons tirées d'expériences à petite échelle ne peuvent pas toujours être applicables à des problèmes à grande échelle. Un autre aspect difficile des problèmes de développement durable est que ces problèmes sont souvent multidisciplinaires et composés de composants qui sont chacun étudiés individuellement dans une discipline différente, mais il existe peu d'informations sur leur comportement ensemble. Un troisième défi de la gouvernance pour le développement durable est qu'il est souvent nécessaire d'impliquer les parties prenantes dans des actions de gestion et des mesures d'intervention coûteuses pour les individus qui y participent. De plus, dans de nombreuses situations de ce type, les incitations financières et l'application des réglementations se soldent par un échec et ne constituent donc pas des options de gouvernance. Dans cette thèse, les défis ci-dessus sont abordés dans un exemple de contrôle des perturbations forestières avec une approche intégrée. Pour éviter le problème des effets indésirables irréversibles et pour permettre des expériences répétées, une approche de simulation est utilisée. Pour relever le défi de la multidisciplinarité des problèmes des systèmes socio-écologiques, deux modèles sont développés indépendamment - portant sur les aspects sociaux et écologiques du système de l'étude - et ils sont ensuite couplés de telle sorte que la sortie de chaque modèle est utilisée comme entrée pour l'autre modèle. Pour résoudre le problème de l'engagement des parties prenantes, un plan est proposé pour la promotion d'un comportement respectueux de l'environnement. Ce plan est basé sur l'offre de reconnaissance à ceux qui adoptent volontairement le comportement responsable. Le modèle écologique de cette étude, qui simule la propagation d'une perturbation forestière, est construit à l'aide de l’apprentissage automatique supervisé. Le modèle social de cette étude, qui simule l'émergence d'une nouvelle norme de comportement, est construit à l'aide de l'apprentissage par renforcement. Les deux modèles sont testés et validés avant couplage. Le modèle couplé est ensuite utilisé comme un laboratoire virtuel, où plusieurs expériences sont réalisées dans un cadre hypothétique et selon différents scénarios. Chacune de ces expériences est une simulation. A travers ces simulations, cette étude montre qu'avec un algorithme de prise de décision approprié et avec suffisamment de temps pour l'interaction entre une entité gouvernante et la société, il est possible de créer une motivation pour un comportement responsable dans la société. En d'autres termes, il est possible d'encourager la participation volontaire des acteurs à l'action pour le développement durable, sans que l'entité gouvernante ait besoin d'utiliser des incitations financières ou d'imposer son autorité. Ces résultats peuvent être applicables à d'autres contextes où un comportement responsable des individus ou des entreprises est recherché afin d'atténuer l'impact d'une perturbation, de protéger une ressource écologique, ou de faciliter une transition sectorielle vers la durabilité.Governance for sustainable development involves many challenges. One of those challenges is to gain insight about the social-ecological systems being governned. In such systems, learning by trial and error involve the risk of unexpected, irreversible and adverse consequences. Moreover, due to complexity of social-ecological systems, lessons learned from small scale experiments may not be applicable in large-scale problems. Another challenging aspect of problems of sustainable development is that these problems are often multidisciplinary and comprised of components that are each studied individually in a different discipline, but little information exists about their behavior together as a whole. A third challenge in governance for sustainable development is that often it is necessary to involve stakeholders in management actions and intervention measures that are costly for individuals who participate in them. Moreover, in many of these situations financial incentives or enforcement of regulations result in failure, and are thus not options for governance. In this thesis, the above challenges are addressed in an example case of forest disturbance control with an integrated approach. To avoid the problem of irreversible adverse effects and to allow repeated experiments, a simulation approach is used. To tackle the challenge of multidisciplinarity of problems of social-ecological systems, two models are independently developed – pertaining to social and ecological aspects of the system of the study – and they are subsequently coupled in such a way that the output of each model served as an input for the other. To address the problem of engagement of stakeholders, a scheme is proposed for promotion of environmentally responsible behavior. This scheme is based on offering recognition to those who voluntarily perform the responsible behavior. The ecological model of this study, which simulates the spread of a forest disturbance, is built using Supervised Machine Learning. The social model of this study, which simulates the emergence of a new norm of behavior, is built using Reinforcement Learning. Both models are tested and validated before coupling. The coupled model is then used as a virtual laboratory, where several experiments are performed in a hypothetical setting and under various scenarios. Each such experiment is a simulation. Through these simulations, this study shows that with an appropriate decision-making algorithm and with sufficient time for interaction between a governing entity and the society, it is possible to create motivation for responsible behavior in the society. In other words, it is possible to encourage voluntary participation of stakeholders in action for sustainable development, without the need for the governing entity to use financial incentives or impose its authority. These results may be applicable to other contexts where responsible behavior by individuals or enterprises is sought in order to mitigate the impact of a disturbance, protect an ecological resource, or facilitate a sectoral transition towards sustainability

Comparison of the Glover-Balmer solution with a calibrated groundwater model to estimate aquifer-stream interactions in an irrigated alluvial valley

2014 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.In many alluvial valleys wherein streams are hydraulically connected to the aquifer system, understanding and quantifying the impact of aquifer stresses (e.g. pumping, injection, recharge) on streamflow is of primary importance. Due to their relative simplicity and straightforward application, analytical models such as the Glover-Balmer solution often are employed to quantify these impacts. However, the predictive capacity of such models in intensively-irrigated systems, wherein canals, spatially-varying irrigation application patterns, and spatially-variable aquifer characteristics are often present, is not well known. In this study, the Glover-Balmer solution is compared to a calibrated MODFLOW-UZF numerical model for a study area within the Lower Arkansas River Valley in southeastern Colorado, USA. Comparison is made by simulating field-scale water extraction, addition, and fallowing scenarios, and comparing the predictions by both models of stream depletion or accretion. To create an ideal comparison, inputs to the Glover-Balmer model (stress, aquifer parameters) are obtained from the calibrated numerical model. Results for a few fallowing scenarios and from 52 extraction and addition scenarios from a variety of distances from the Arkansas River show that, under certain circumstances, the two models have good agreement in results, particularly in regions close (< about 0.5 to 1 km) to the river. However, due to aquifer heterogeneity and the overall hydrologic complexity in the natural system, results of the two models often diverge, with the Glover-Balmer model typically estimating greater impacts on the stream than the MODFLOW-UZF model. Suggested considerations are given for applying the Glover-Balmer solution, including the consideration of hydrologic components that may intercept or contribute to groundwater flow (such as irrigation canals, upflux to ET, groundwater storage, and tributaries), the potential influence of unsaturated zone processes, and changes in depletion/accretion locations and timing due to aquifer heterogeneity

Simulating academic entrepreneurship and inter-organisational collaboration in university ecosystems, a hybrid system dynamics agent-based simulation

Universities are increasingly expected to actively contribute to socio-economic development. Academic entrepreneurship and the evolution of the entrepreneurial university within ecosystems have received increasing attention from both policymakers and academic communities over the last decades. However, most studies on universities' external engagement have focused on individual activities and single universities, hereby neglecting the feedback effects between different activities and how universities are linked through an overlap of their ecosystems. The result is an incomplete understanding of how universities interact with their ecosystem and the resulting inter- and intra-organisational dynamics. This research addresses this issue by developing a hybrid system dynamics agent-based model, which captures feedback structure and the internal decision-making of universities and companies. Both the conceptual and simulation model are based on a triangulation of the literature, interviews with representatives of Scottish universities, and secondary data for Scottish universities and UK businesses. This research makes several theoretical, methodological, and empirical contributions. From a theoretical perspective, it contributes in two distinct ways to the field of entrepreneurship by defining university ecosystems in new way that provides a basis for future research and developing a multi-modal simulation model that can be applied in tested in different contexts. The methodological contributions to the field of modelling and simulation in management science include a modelling process for hybrid simulations, new practices for modelling the size of agent populations through different designs of stocks and flows in the system dynamics module in hybrid simulations, and complex events for recognising emergent behaviour. Lastly, this research makes two empirical contributions to the field of entrepreneurship. This research shines a light on the dynamics of academic entrepreneurship and how universities can partially overcome a low research prestige to increase academic entrepreneurship. Implications for policy and practice are outlined and opportunities for future research conclude this thesis.Universities are increasingly expected to actively contribute to socio-economic development. Academic entrepreneurship and the evolution of the entrepreneurial university within ecosystems have received increasing attention from both policymakers and academic communities over the last decades. However, most studies on universities' external engagement have focused on individual activities and single universities, hereby neglecting the feedback effects between different activities and how universities are linked through an overlap of their ecosystems. The result is an incomplete understanding of how universities interact with their ecosystem and the resulting inter- and intra-organisational dynamics. This research addresses this issue by developing a hybrid system dynamics agent-based model, which captures feedback structure and the internal decision-making of universities and companies. Both the conceptual and simulation model are based on a triangulation of the literature, interviews with representatives of Scottish universities, and secondary data for Scottish universities and UK businesses. This research makes several theoretical, methodological, and empirical contributions. From a theoretical perspective, it contributes in two distinct ways to the field of entrepreneurship by defining university ecosystems in new way that provides a basis for future research and developing a multi-modal simulation model that can be applied in tested in different contexts. The methodological contributions to the field of modelling and simulation in management science include a modelling process for hybrid simulations, new practices for modelling the size of agent populations through different designs of stocks and flows in the system dynamics module in hybrid simulations, and complex events for recognising emergent behaviour. Lastly, this research makes two empirical contributions to the field of entrepreneurship. This research shines a light on the dynamics of academic entrepreneurship and how universities can partially overcome a low research prestige to increase academic entrepreneurship. Implications for policy and practice are outlined and opportunities for future research conclude this thesis

Computers (Basel)

Suicide is a leading cause of death and a global public health problem, representing more than one in every 100 deaths in 2019. Modeling and Simulation (M&S) is widely used to address public health problems, and numerous simulation models have investigated the complex, dependent, and dynamic risk factors contributing to suicide. However, no review has been dedicated to these models, which prevents modelers from effectively learning from each other and raises the risk of redundant efforts. To guide the development of future models, in this paper we perform the first scoping review of simulation models for suicide prevention. Examining ten articles, we focus on three practical questions. First, which interventions are supported by previous models? We found that four groups of models collectively support 53 interventions. We examined these interventions through the lens of global recommendations for suicide prevention, highlighting future areas for model development. Second, what are the obstacles preventing model application? We noted the absence of cost effectiveness in all models reviewed, meaning that certain simulated interventions may be infeasible. Moreover, we found that most models do not account for different effects of suicide prevention interventions across demographic groups. Third, how much confidence can we place in the models? We evaluated models according to four best practices for simulation, leading to nuanced findings that, despite their current limitations, the current simulation models are powerful tools for understanding the complexity of suicide and evaluating suicide prevention interventions.CC999999/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHSUnited States

The No-Scale Multiverse at the LHC

We present a contemporary perspective on the String Landscape and the Multiverse of plausible string, M- and F-theory vacua, seeking to demonstrate a non-zero probability for the existence of a universe matching our own observed physics within the solution ensemble, arguing for the importance of No-Scale Supergravity as an essential common underpinning. Our context is a highly detailed phenomenological probe of No-Scale F-SU(5), a model representing the intersection of the F-lipped SU(5) X U(1)_X Grand Unified Theory (GUT) with extra TeV-Scale vector-like multiplets derived out of F-theory, and the dynamics of No-Scale Supergravity. We present a highly constrained "Golden" region with tan(beta) \sim 15, m_t = 173.0 - 174.4 GeV, M_1/2 = 455 - 481 GeV, and M_V = 691 - 1020 GeV, which simultaneously satisfies all known experimental constraints. We supplement this bottom-up phenomenological perspective with a top-down theoretical analysis of the one-loop effective Higgs potential, achieving a striking consonance via the dynamic determination of tan(beta) and M_1/2 at the local secondary minimization of the spontaneously broken electroweak Higgs vacuum V_min. We present the distinctive signatures of No-Scale F-SU(5) at the LHC, where a light stop and gluino are expected to generate a surplus of ultra-high multiplicity (>= 9) hadronic jet events. We propose modest alterations to the canonical background selection cut strategy which would enhance resolution of these events, while readily suppressing the contribution of all Standard Model processes, and allowing a clear differentiation from competing models of new physics. Detection by the LHC of the ultra-high jet signal would constitute a suggestive evocation of the intimately linked stringy origins of F-SU(5), and could provide a glimpse into the fundamental string moduli, and possibly even the workings of the No-Scale Multiverse.Comment: A review of recent work, submitted to the DICE 2010 Workshop proceedings, based on the invited talk by D.V.N. (20 Pages, 5 Tables, 18 Figures