A robust fuzzy possibilistic AHP approach for partner selection in international strategic alliance

The international strategic alliance is an inevitable solution for making competitive advantage and reducing the risk in today’s business environment. Partner selection is an important part in success of partnerships, and meanwhile it is a complicated decision because of various dimensions of the problem and inherent conflicts of stockholders. The purpose of this paper is to provide a practical approach to the problem of partner selection in international strategic alliances, which fulfills the gap between theories of inter-organizational relationships and quantitative models. Thus, a novel Robust Fuzzy Possibilistic AHP approach is proposed for combining the benefits of two complementary theories of inter-organizational relationships named, (1) Resource-based view, and (2) Transaction-cost theory and considering Fit theory as the perquisite of alliance success. The Robust Fuzzy Possibilistic AHP approach is a noveldevelopment of Interval-AHP technique employing robust formulation; aimed at handling the ambiguity of the problem and let the use of intervals as pairwise judgments. The proposed approach was compared with existing approaches, and the results show that it provides the best quality solutions in terms of minimum error degree. Moreover, the framework implemented in a case study and its applicability were discussed

Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System

Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors, given sufficient informative data. However, another type of uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty) must be accounted for in the modeling, due to incomplete knowledge of the phenomena and imprecise evaluation of the related characteristic parameters. In circumstances of few informative data, this type of uncertainty calls for alternative methods of representation, propagation, analysis and interpretation. In this study, we make a first attempt to identify, model, and jointly propagate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the context of DG systems modeling for adequacy assessment. Probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. Evidence theory is used to incorporate the two uncertainties under a single framework. Based on the plausibility and belief functions of evidence theory, the hybrid propagation approach is introduced. A demonstration is given on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder. Compared to the pure probabilistic approach, it is shown that the hybrid propagation is capable of explicitly expressing the imprecision in the knowledge on the DG parameters into the final adequacy values assessed. It also effectively captures the growth of uncertainties with higher DG penetration levels

Induction of Interpretable Possibilistic Logic Theories from Relational Data

The field of Statistical Relational Learning (SRL) is concerned with learning probabilistic models from relational data. Learned SRL models are typically represented using some kind of weighted logical formulas, which make them considerably more interpretable than those obtained by e.g. neural networks. In practice, however, these models are often still difficult to interpret correctly, as they can contain many formulas that interact in non-trivial ways and weights do not always have an intuitive meaning. To address this, we propose a new SRL method which uses possibilistic logic to encode relational models. Learned models are then essentially stratified classical theories, which explicitly encode what can be derived with a given level of certainty. Compared to Markov Logic Networks (MLNs), our method is faster and produces considerably more interpretable models.Comment: Longer version of a paper appearing in IJCAI 201