Possibility/Necessity-Based Probabilistic Expectation Models for Linear Programming Problems with Discrete Fuzzy Random Variables

This paper considers linear programming problems (LPPs) where the objective functions involve discrete fuzzy random variables (fuzzy set-valued discrete random variables). New decision making models, which are useful in fuzzy stochastic environments, are proposed based on both possibility theory and probability theory. In multi-objective cases, Pareto optimal solutions of the proposed models are newly defined. Computational algorithms for obtaining the Pareto optimal solutions of the proposed models are provided. It is shown that problems involving discrete fuzzy random variables can be transformed into deterministic nonlinear mathematical programming problems which can be solved through a conventional mathematical programming solver under practically reasonable assumptions. A numerical example of agriculture production problems is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed models to real-world problems in fuzzy stochastic environments

Developing collaborative planning support tools for optimised farming in Western Australia

Land-use (farm) planning is a highly complex and dynamic process. A land-use plan can be optimal at one point in time, but its currency can change quickly due to the dynamic nature of the variables driving the land-use decision-making process. These include external drivers such as weather and produce markets, that also interact with the biophysical interactions and management activities of crop production.The active environment of an annual farm planning process can be envisioned as being cone-like. At the beginning of the sowing year, the number of options open to the manager is huge, although uncertainty is high due to the inability to foresee future weather and market conditions. As the production year reveals itself, the uncertainties around weather and markets become more certain, as does the impact of weather and management activities on future production levels. This restricts the number of alternative management options available to the farm manager. Moreover, every decision made, such as crop type sown in a paddock, will constrains the range of management activities possible in that paddock for the rest of the growing season.This research has developed a prototype Land-use Decision Support System (LUDSS) to aid farm managers in their tactical farm management decision making. The prototype applies an innovative approach that mimics the way in which a farm manager and/or consultant would search for optimal solutions at a whole-farm level. This model captured the range of possible management activities available to the manager and the impact that both external (to the farm) and internal drivers have on crop production and the environment. It also captured the risk and uncertainty found in the decision space.The developed prototype is based on a Multiple Objective Decision-making (MODM) - á Posteriori approach incorporating an Exhaustive Search method. The objective set used for the model is: maximising profit and minimising environmental impact. Pareto optimisation theory was chosen as the method to select the optimal solution and a Monte Carlo simulator is integrated into the prototype to incorporate the dynamic nature of the farm decision making process. The prototype has a user-friendly front and back end to allow farmers to input data, drive the application and extract information easily

Improved two-phase solution strategy for multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with uncertain probability distribution

Multiobjective Fuzzy Stochastic Linear Programming (MFSLP) problem where the linear inequalities on the probability are fuzzy is called a Multiobjective Fuzzy Stochastic Linear Programming problem with Fuzzy Linear Partial Information on Probability Distribution (MFSLPPFI). The uncertainty presents unique difficulties in constrained optimization problems owing to the presence of conflicting goals and randomness surrounding the data. Most existing solution techniques for MFSLPPFI problems rely heavily on the expectation optimization model, the variance minimization model, the probability maximization model, pessimistic/optimistic values and compromise solution under partial uncertainty of random parameters. Although these approaches recognize the fact that the interval values for probability distribution have important significance, nevertheless they are restricted by the upper and lower limitations of probability distribution and neglected the interior values. This limitation motivated us to search for more efficient strategies for MFSLPPFI which address both the fuzziness of the probability distributions, and the fuzziness and randomness of the parameters. The proposed strategy consists two phases: fuzzy transformation and stochastic transformation. First, ranking function is used to transform the MFSLPPFI to Multiobjective Stochastic Linear Programming Problem with Fuzzy Linear Partial Information on Probability Distribution (MSLPPFI). The problem is then transformed to its corresponding Multiobjective Linear Programming (MLP) problem by using a-cut technique of uncertain probability distribution and linguistic hedges. In addition, Chance Constraint Programming (CCP), and expectation of random coefficients are applied to the constraints and the objectives respectively. Finally, the MLP problem is converted to a single-objective Linear Programming (LP) problem via an Adaptive Arithmetic Average Method (AAAM), and then solved by using simplex method. The algorithm used to obtain the solution requires fewer iterations and faster generation of results compared to existing solutions. Three realistic examples are tested which show that the approach used in this study is efficient in solving the MFSLPPFI

Methodological review of multicriteria optimization techniques: aplications in water resources

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an umbrella approach that has been applied to a wide range of natural resource management situations. This report has two purposes. First, it aims to provide an overview of advancedmulticriteriaapproaches, methods and tools. The review seeks to layout the nature of the models, their inherent strengths and limitations. Analysis of their applicability in supporting real-life decision-making processes is provided with relation to requirements imposed by organizationally decentralized and economically specific spatial and temporal frameworks. Models are categorized based on different classification schemes and are reviewed by describing their general characteristics, approaches, and fundamental properties. A necessity of careful structuring of decision problems is discussed regarding planning, staging and control aspects within broader agricultural context, and in water management in particular. A special emphasis is given to the importance of manipulating decision elements by means ofhierarchingand clustering. The review goes beyond traditionalMCDAtechniques; it describes new modelling approaches. The second purpose is to describe newMCDAparadigms aimed at addressing the inherent complexity of managing water ecosystems, particularly with respect to multiple criteria integrated with biophysical models,multistakeholders, and lack of information. Comments about, and critical analysis of, the limitations of traditional models are made to point out the need for, and propose a call to, a new way of thinking aboutMCDAas they are applied to water and natural resources management planning. These new perspectives do not undermine the value of traditional methods; rather they point to a shift in emphasis from methods for problem solving to methods for problem structuring. Literature review show successfully integrations of watershed management optimization models to efficiently screen a broad range of technical, economic, and policy management options within a watershed system framework and select the optimal combination of management strategies and associated water allocations for designing a sustainable watershed management plan at least cost. Papers show applications in watershed management model that integrates both natural and human elements of a watershed system including the management of ground and surface water sources, water treatment and distribution systems, human demands,wastewatertreatment and collection systems, water reuse facilities,nonpotablewater distribution infrastructure, aquifer storage and recharge facilities, storm water, and land use

State-of-the-Art Report on Systems Analysis Methods for Resolution of Conflicts in Water Resources Management

Water is an important factor in conflicts among stakeholders at the local, regional, and even international level. Water conflicts have taken many forms, but they almost always arise from the fact that the freshwater resources of the world are not partitioned to match the political borders, nor are they evenly distributed in space and time. Two or more countries share the watersheds of 261 major rivers and nearly half of the land area of the wo rld is in international river basins. Water has been used as a military and political goal. Water has been a weapon of war. Water systems have been targets during the war. A role of systems approach has been investigated in this report as an approach for resolution of conflicts over water. A review of systems approach provides some basic knowledge of tools and techniques as they apply to water management and conflict resolution. Report provides a classification and description of water conflicts by addressing issues of scale, integrated water management and the role of stakeholders. Four large-scale examples are selected to illustrate the application of systems approach to water conflicts: (a) hydropower development in Canada; (b) multipurpose use of Danube river in Europe; (c) international water conflict between USA and Canada; and (d) Aral See in Asia. Water conflict resolution process involves various sources of uncertainty. One section of the report provides some examples of systems tools that can be used to address objective and subjective uncertainties with special emphasis on the utility of the fuzzy set theory. Systems analysis is known to be driven by the development of computer technology. Last section of the report provides one view of the future and systems tools that will be used for water resources management. Role of the virtual databases, computer and communication networks is investigated in the context of water conflicts and their resolution.https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/wrrr/1005/thumbnail.jp

Multi-criteria governmental crop planning problem based on an integrated AHP-PROMETHEE approach

The study uses analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and preference ranking organisation method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE) to deal with the crop planning problem as a multi-criteria decision-making problem, for governmental lands in Gaza Strip under two conditions: the normal economy condition and the resistant economy condition. These two conditions are studied from the governmental point of view. The study goal is to rank crops according to some considered criteria. Crops are divided into eight types that include vegetables, fruits, citrus, olives, palms, export crops, field crops and medical and aromatic crops. The developed AHP and PROMETHEE compare crops with respect to seven main criteria, namely; economical, financial, marketing, environmental, technical, political and social criteria. AHP is used to obtain criteria weights to be used as input for PROMETHEE to outrank alternatives. The

Multistage scenario-based interval-stochastic programming for planning water resources allocation

In this study, a multistage scenario-based interval-stochastic programming (MSISP) method is developed for water-resources allocation under uncertainty. MSISP improves upon the existing multistage optimization methods with advantages in uncertainty reflection, dynamics facilitation, and risk analysis. It can directly handle uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions, and can support the assessment of the reliability of satisfying (or the risk of violating) system constraints within a multistage context. It can also reflect the dynamics of system uncertainties and decision processes under a representative set of scenarios. The developed MSISP method is then applied to a case of water resources management planning within a multi-reservoir system associated with joint probabilities. A range of violation levels for capacity and environment constraints are analyzed under uncertainty. Solutions associated different risk levels of constraint violation have been obtained. They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help water managers to identify desired policies under various economic, environmental and system-reliability conditions. Besides, sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the violation of the environmental constraint has a significant effect on the system benefit

Optimization Models Using Fuzzy Sets and Possibility Theory

Optimization is of central concern to a number of disciplines. Operations Research and Decision Theory are often considered to be identical with optimization. But also in other areas such as engineering design, regional policy, logistics and many others, the search for optimal solutions is one of the prime goals. The methods and models which have been used over the last decades in these areas have primarily been "hard" or "crisp", i.e. the solutions were considered to be either feasible or unfeasible, either above a certain aspiration level or below. This dichotomous structure of methods very often forced the modeler to approximate real problem situations of the more-or-less type by yes-or-no-type models, the solutions of which might turn out not to be the solutions to the real problems. This is particularly true if the problem under consideration includes vaguely defined relationships, human evaluations, uncertainty due to inconsistent or incomplete evidence, if natural language has to be modeled or if state variables can only be described approximately. Until recently, everything which was not known with certainty, i.e. which was not known to be either true or false or which was not known to either happen with certainty or to be impossible to occur, was modeled by means of probabilities. This holds in particular for uncertainties concerning the occurrence of events. probability theory was used irrespective of whether its axioms (such as, for instance, the law of large numbers) were satisfied or not, or whether the "events" could really be described unequivocally and crisply. In the meantime one has become aware of the fact that uncertainties concerning the occurrence as well as concerning the description of events ought to be modeled in a much more differentiated way. New concepts and theories have been developed to do this: the theory of evidence, possibility theory, the theory of fuzzy sets have been advanced to a stage of remarkable maturity and have already been applied successfully in numerous cases and in many areas. Unluckily, the progress in these areas has been so fast in the last years that it has not been documented in a way which makes these results easily accessible and understandable for newcomers to these areas: text-books have not been able to keep up with the speed of new developments; edited volumes have been published which are very useful for specialists in these areas, but which are of very little use to nonspecialists because they assume too much of a background in fuzzy set theory. To a certain degree the same is true for the existing professional journals in the area of fuzzy set theory. Altogether this volume is a very important and appreciable contribution to the literature on fuzzy set theory

Dependent-Chance Goal Programming for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty

Without sufficient data, consulting experts is a good way to quantify unknown parameters in water resources management which will result in human uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to introduce a new tool-uncertainty theory to deal with such uncertainty which is treated as uncertain variable with uncertainty distribution. And a dependent-chance goal programming (DCGP) model is provided for water resources management under such circumstance. In the model uncertain measure is used to measure possibility that an event will occur which is maximized by minimizing the deviation (positive or negative deviation) from target of objective event under a given priority structure. In the end, the developed model is applied to a numerical example to illustrate the effectiveness of the model. The result obtained contributes to the desired water-allocation schemes for decision-markers

A comparative study of multiple-criteria decision-making methods under stochastic inputs

This paper presents an application and extension of multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods to account for stochastic input variables. More in particular, a comparative study is carried out among well-known and widely-applied methods in MCDM, when applied to the reference problem of the selection of wind turbine support structures for a given deployment location. Along with data from industrial experts, six deterministic MCDM methods are studied, so as to determine the best alternative among the available options, assessed against selected criteria with a view toward assigning confidence levels to each option. Following an overview of the literature around MCDM problems, the best practice implementation of each method is presented aiming to assist stakeholders and decision-makers to support decisions in real-world applications, where many and often conflicting criteria are present within uncertain environments. The outcomes of this research highlight that more sophisticated methods, such as technique for the order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Preference Ranking Organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE), better predict the optimum design alternative