Situation Modeling of Regional Development in the Republic of Kazakhstan

The methodology of situation modeling was based on the application of fuzzy cognitive maps, indistinct regional data and indistinct time horizon. Based on indistinct number of involved concepts, the model enables users to create their own situations with fuzzy quantity of available concepts including both the existing and the added ones. The added concepts are characterized by the set properties and database related to no less than three fuzzy time horizons. The number of set impulses is fuzzy as well. Cognitive map training was based on the artificial intelligence element – the active Hebb learning rule. The impact of concepts was defined in the course of training. Fine adjustment of the fuzzy cognitive map was achieved by changing the training order using a rank scale and Saati’s sorting algorithm. The developed computer software was used in simulation modeling of regional socio-economic processes related to the project aiming at tourism development of the Alacol Lake in Almaty region. Research results are shown in the form of a fuzzy cognitive map reflecting internal and external relations within the region, graphs reflecting socio-economic development and the Bossel criterion. Simulation of allocations had a positive effect: GRP (Gross Regional Product) growth along with increase in employment and environmental improvement. The proposed approach provides a tool for forecasting of regional development and solution of different regional problems. This approach can be used with regard to any administrative-territorial entity, provided relevant statistical data

Situation Modeling of Regional Development in the Republic of Kazakhstan

The methodology of situation modeling was based on the application of fuzzy cognitive maps, indistinct regional data and indistinct time horizon. Based on indistinct number of involved concepts, the model enables users to create their own situations with fuzzy quantity of available concepts including both the existing and the added ones. The added concepts are characterized by the set properties and database related to no less than three fuzzy time horizons. The number of set impulses is fuzzy as well. Cognitive map training was based on the artificial intelligence element – the active Hebb learning rule. The impact of concepts was defined in the course of training. Fine adjustment of the fuzzy cognitive map was achieved by changing the training order using a rank scale and Saati’s sorting algorithm. The developed computer software was used in simulation modeling of regional socio-economic processes related to the project aiming at tourism development of the Alacol Lake in Almaty region. Research results are shown in the form of a fuzzy cognitive map reflecting internal and external relations within the region, graphs reflecting socio-economic development and the Bossel criterion. Simulation of allocations had a positive effect: GRP (Gross Regional Product) growth along with increase in employment and environmental improvement. The proposed approach provides a tool for forecasting of regional development and solution of different regional problems. This approach can be used with regard to any administrative-territorial entity, provided relevant statistical data

Software agents & human behavior

People make important decisions in emergencies. Often these decisions involve high stakes in terms of lives and property. Bhopal disaster (1984), Piper Alpha disaster (1988), Montara blowout (2009), and explosion on Deepwater Horizon (2010) are a few examples among many industrial incidents. In these incidents, those who were in-charge took critical decisions under various ental stressors such as time, fatigue, and panic. This thesis presents an application of naturalistic decision-making (NDM), which is a recent decision-making theory inspired by experts making decisions in real emergencies. This study develops an intelligent agent model that can be programed to make human-like decisions in emergencies. The agent model has three major components: (1) A spatial learning module, which the agent uses to learn escape routes that are designated routes in a facility for emergency evacuation, (2) a situation recognition module, which is used to recognize or distinguish among evolving emergency situations, and (3) a decision-support module, which exploits modules in (1) and (2), and implements an NDM based decision-logic for producing human-like decisions in emergencies. The spatial learning module comprises a generalized stochastic Petri net-based model of spatial learning. The model classifies routes into five classes based on landmarks, which are objects with salient spatial features. These classes deal with the question of how difficult a landmark turns out to be when an agent observes it the first time during a route traversal. An extension to the spatial learning model is also proposed where the question of how successive route traversals may impact retention of a route in the agent’s memory is investigated. The situation awareness module uses Markov logic network (MLN) to define different offshore emergency situations using First-order Logic (FOL) rules. The purpose of this module is to give the agent the necessary experience of dealing with emergencies. The potential of this module lies in the fact that different training samples can be used to produce agents having different experience or capability to deal with an emergency situation. To demonstrate this fact, two agents were developed and trained using two different sets of empirical observations. The two are found to be different in recognizing the prepare-to-abandon-platform alarm (PAPA ), and similar to each other in recognition of an emergency using other cues. Finally, the decision-support module is proposed as a union of spatial-learning module, situation awareness module, and NDM based decision-logic. The NDM-based decision-logic is inspired by Klein’s (1998) recognition primed decision-making (RPDM) model. The agent’s attitudes related to decision-making as per the RPDM are represented in the form of belief, desire, and intention (BDI). The decision-logic involves recognition of situations based on experience (as proposed in situation-recognition module), and recognition of situations based on classification, where ontological classification is used to guide the agent in cases where the agent’s experience about confronting a situation is inadequate. At the planning stage, the decision-logic exploits the agent’s spatial knowledge (as proposed in spatial-learning module) about the layout of the environment to make adjustments in the course of actions relevant to a decision that has already been made as a by-product of situation recognition. The proposed agent model has potential to be used to improve virtual training environment’s fidelity by adding agents that exhibit human-like intelligence in performing tasks related to emergency evacuation. Notwithstanding, the potential to exploit the basis provided here, in the form of an agent representing human fallibility, should not be ignored for fields like human reliability analysis

Semantic adaptability for the systems interoperability

In the current global and competitive business context, it is essential that enterprises adapt their knowledge resources in order to smoothly interact and collaborate with others. However, due to the existent multiculturalism of people and enterprises, there are different representation views of business processes or products, even inside a same domain. Consequently, one of the main problems found in the interoperability between enterprise systems and applications is related to semantics. The integration and sharing of enterprises knowledge to build a common lexicon, plays an important role to the semantic adaptability of the information systems. The author proposes a framework to support the development of systems to manage dynamic semantic adaptability resolution. It allows different organisations to participate in a common knowledge base building, letting at the same time maintain their own views of the domain, without compromising the integration between them. Thus, systems are able to be aware of new knowledge, and have the capacity to learn from it and to manage its semantic interoperability in a dynamic and adaptable way. The author endorses the vision that in the near future, the semantic adaptability skills of the enterprise systems will be the booster to enterprises collaboration and the appearance of new business opportunities

Interpretation of Natural-language Robot Instructions: Probabilistic Knowledge Representation, Learning, and Reasoning

A robot that can be simply told in natural language what to do -- this has been one of the ultimate long-standing goals in both Artificial Intelligence and Robotics research. In near-future applications, robotic assistants and companions will have to understand and perform commands such as set the table for dinner'', make pancakes for breakfast'', or cut the pizza into 8 pieces.'' Although such instructions are only vaguely formulated, complex sequences of sophisticated and accurate manipulation activities need to be carried out in order to accomplish the respective tasks. The acquisition of knowledge about how to perform these activities from huge collections of natural-language instructions from the Internet has garnered a lot of attention within the last decade. However, natural language is typically massively unspecific, incomplete, ambiguous and vague and thus requires powerful means for interpretation. This work presents PRAC -- Probabilistic Action Cores -- an interpreter for natural-language instructions which is able to resolve vagueness and ambiguity in natural language and infer missing information pieces that are required to render an instruction executable by a robot. To this end, PRAC formulates the problem of instruction interpretation as a reasoning problem in first-order probabilistic knowledge bases. In particular, the system uses Markov logic networks as a carrier formalism for encoding uncertain knowledge. A novel framework for reasoning about unmodeled symbolic concepts is introduced, which incorporates ontological knowledge from taxonomies and exploits semantically similar relational structures in a domain of discourse. The resulting reasoning framework thus enables more compact representations of knowledge and exhibits strong generalization performance when being learnt from very sparse data. Furthermore, a novel approach for completing directives is presented, which applies semantic analogical reasoning to transfer knowledge collected from thousands of natural-language instruction sheets to new situations. In addition, a cohesive processing pipeline is described that transforms vague and incomplete task formulations into sequences of formally specified robot plans. The system is connected to a plan executive that is able to execute the computed plans in a simulator. Experiments conducted in a publicly accessible, browser-based web interface showcase that PRAC is capable of closing the loop from natural-language instructions to their execution by a robot

Overview of contextual tracking approaches in information fusion

Proceedings of: Geospatial InfoFusion III. 2-3 May 2013 Baltimore, Maryland, United States.Many information fusion solutions work well in the intended scenarios; but the applications, supporting data, and capabilities change over varying contexts. One example is weather data for electro-optical target trackers of which standards have evolved over decades. The operating conditions of: technology changes, sensor/target variations, and the contextual environment can inhibit performance if not included in the initial systems design. In this paper, we seek to define and categorize different types of contextual information. We describe five contextual information categories that support target tracking: (1) domain knowledge from a user to aid the information fusion process through selection, cueing, and analysis, (2) environment-to-hardware processing for sensor management, (3) known distribution of entities for situation/threat assessment, (4) historical traffic behavior for situation awareness patterns of life (POL), and (5) road information for target tracking and identification. Appropriate characterization and representation of contextual information is needed for future high-level information fusion systems design to take advantage of the large data content available for a priori knowledge target tracking algorithm construction, implementation, and application.Publicad

Recognizing complex faces and gaits via novel probabilistic models

In the field of computer vision, developing automated systems to recognize people under unconstrained scenarios is a partially solved problem. In unconstrained sce- narios a number of common variations and complexities such as occlusion, illumi- nation, cluttered background and so on impose vast uncertainty to the recognition process. Among the various biometrics that have been emerging recently, this dissertation focus on two of them namely face and gait recognition. Firstly we address the problem of recognizing faces with major occlusions amidst other variations such as pose, scale, expression and illumination using a novel PRObabilistic Component based Interpretation Model (PROCIM) inspired by key psychophysical principles that are closely related to reasoning under uncertainty. The model basically employs Bayesian Networks to establish, learn, interpret and exploit intrinsic similarity mappings from the face domain. Then, by incorporating e cient inference strategies, robust decisions are made for successfully recognizing faces under uncertainty. PROCIM reports improved recognition rates over recent approaches. Secondly we address the newly upcoming gait recognition problem and show that PROCIM can be easily adapted to the gait domain as well. We scienti cally de ne and formulate sub-gaits and propose a novel modular training scheme to e ciently learn subtle sub-gait characteristics from the gait domain. Our results show that the proposed model is robust to several uncertainties and yields sig- ni cant recognition performance. Apart from PROCIM, nally we show how a simple component based gait reasoning can be coherently modeled using the re- cently prominent Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) by intuitively fusing imaging, logic and graphs. We have discovered that face and gait domains exhibit interesting similarity map- pings between object entities and their components. We have proposed intuitive probabilistic methods to model these mappings to perform recognition under vari- ous uncertainty elements. Extensive experimental validations justi es the robust- ness of the proposed methods over the state-of-the-art techniques.

Inferring Complex Activities for Context-aware Systems within Smart Environments

The rising ageing population worldwide and the prevalence of age-related conditions such as physical fragility, mental impairments and chronic diseases have significantly impacted the quality of life and caused a shortage of health and care services. Over-stretched healthcare providers are leading to a paradigm shift in public healthcare provisioning. Thus, Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) using Smart Homes (SH) technologies has been rigorously investigated to help address the aforementioned problems. Human Activity Recognition (HAR) is a critical component in AAL systems which enables applications such as just-in-time assistance, behaviour analysis, anomalies detection and emergency notifications. This thesis is aimed at investigating challenges faced in accurately recognising Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) performed by single or multiple inhabitants within smart environments. Specifically, this thesis explores five complementary research challenges in HAR. The first study contributes to knowledge by developing a semantic-enabled data segmentation approach with user-preferences. The second study takes the segmented set of sensor data to investigate and recognise human ADLs at multi-granular action level; coarse- and fine-grained action level. At the coarse-grained actions level, semantic relationships between the sensor, object and ADLs are deduced, whereas, at fine-grained action level, object usage at the satisfactory threshold with the evidence fused from multimodal sensor data is leveraged to verify the intended actions. Moreover, due to imprecise/vague interpretations of multimodal sensors and data fusion challenges, fuzzy set theory and fuzzy web ontology language (fuzzy-OWL) are leveraged. The third study focuses on incorporating uncertainties caused in HAR due to factors such as technological failure, object malfunction, and human errors. Hence, existing studies uncertainty theories and approaches are analysed and based on the findings, probabilistic ontology (PR-OWL) based HAR approach is proposed. The fourth study extends the first three studies to distinguish activities conducted by more than one inhabitant in a shared smart environment with the use of discriminative sensor-based techniques and time-series pattern analysis. The final study investigates in a suitable system architecture with a real-time smart environment tailored to AAL system and proposes microservices architecture with sensor-based off-the-shelf and bespoke sensing methods. The initial semantic-enabled data segmentation study was evaluated with 100% and 97.8% accuracy to segment sensor events under single and mixed activities scenarios. However, the average classification time taken to segment each sensor events have suffered from 3971ms and 62183ms for single and mixed activities scenarios, respectively. The second study to detect fine-grained-level user actions was evaluated with 30 and 153 fuzzy rules to detect two fine-grained movements with a pre-collected dataset from the real-time smart environment. The result of the second study indicate good average accuracy of 83.33% and 100% but with the high average duration of 24648ms and 105318ms, and posing further challenges for the scalability of fusion rule creations. The third study was evaluated by incorporating PR-OWL ontology with ADL ontologies and Semantic-Sensor-Network (SSN) ontology to define four types of uncertainties presented in the kitchen-based activity. The fourth study illustrated a case study to extended single-user AR to multi-user AR by combining RFID tags and fingerprint sensors discriminative sensors to identify and associate user actions with the aid of time-series analysis. The last study responds to the computations and performance requirements for the four studies by analysing and proposing microservices-based system architecture for AAL system. A future research investigation towards adopting fog/edge computing paradigms from cloud computing is discussed for higher availability, reduced network traffic/energy, cost, and creating a decentralised system. As a result of the five studies, this thesis develops a knowledge-driven framework to estimate and recognise multi-user activities at fine-grained level user actions. This framework integrates three complementary ontologies to conceptualise factual, fuzzy and uncertainties in the environment/ADLs, time-series analysis and discriminative sensing environment. Moreover, a distributed software architecture, multimodal sensor-based hardware prototypes, and other supportive utility tools such as simulator and synthetic ADL data generator for the experimentation were developed to support the evaluation of the proposed approaches. The distributed system is platform-independent and currently supported by an Android mobile application and web-browser based client interfaces for retrieving information such as live sensor events and HAR results