40 research outputs found

    A Behavioural Decision-Making Framework For Agent-Based Models

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    In the last decades, computer simulation has become one of the mainstream modelling techniques in many scientific fields. Social simulation with Agent-based Modelling (ABM) allows users to capture higher-level system properties that emerge from the interactions of lower-level subsystems. ABM is itself an area of application of Distributed Artificial Intelligence and Multiagent Systems (MAS). Despite that, researchers using ABM for social science studies do not fully benefit from the development in the field of MAS. It is mainly because the MAS architectures and frameworks are built upon cognitive and computer science foundations and principles, creating a gap in concepts and methodology between the two fields. Building agent frameworks based on behaviour theory is a promising direction to minimise this gap. It can provide a standard practice in interdisciplinary teams and facilitate better usage of MAS technological advancement in social research. From our survey, Triandis' Theory of Interpersonal Behaviour (TIB) was chosen due to its broad set of determinants and inclusion of an additive value function to calculate utility values of different outcomes. As TIB's determinants can be organised in a tree-like structure, we utilise layered architectures to formalise the agent's components. The additive function of TIB is then used to combine the utilities of different level determinants. The framework is then applied to create models for different case studies from various domains to test its ability to explain the importance of multiple behavioural aspects and environmental properties. The first case study simulates the mobility demand for Swiss households. We propose an experimental method to test and investigate the impact of core determinants in the TIB on the usage of different transportation modes. The second case study presents a novel solution to simulate trust and reputation by applying subjective logic as a metric to measure an agent's belief about the consequence(s) of action, which can be updated through feedback. The third case study investigates the possibility of simulating bounded rationality effects in an agent's decision-making scheme by limiting its capability of perceiving information. In the final study, a model is created to simulate migrants' choice of activities in centres by applying our framework in conjunction with Maslow's hierarchy of needs. The experiment can then be used to test the impact of different combinations of core determinants on the migrants' activities. Overall, the design of different components in our framework enables adaptations for various contexts, including transportation modal choice, buying a vehicle or daily activities. Most of the work can be done by changing the first-level determinants in the TIB's model based on the phenomena simulated and the available data. Several environmental properties can also be considered by extending the core components or employing other theoretical assumptions and concepts from the social study. The framework can then serve the purpose of theoretical exposition and allow the users to assess the causal link between the TIB's determinants and behaviour output. This thesis also highlights the importance of data collection and experimental design to capture better and understand different aspects of human decision-making

    Modelling land use using demographic forecasting and local optimisation: A case study of general education provision in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

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    Globally accepted guidelines for land use allocation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia have been based on an outmoded practice that was created over a century ago. This approach is based on a mix of predetermined population densities, walking distances, and per person area ratios. The latter criterion is essentially based on a worldwide average for facility areas and user numbers. The fundamental criticism levelled at such practices is their insensitivity to population trends and limited land resources. In this context, this research is aimed at updating common practice in the light of population growth and residential mobility projections at the city and district levels. The models introduced aim to provide comprehensive and adaptable simulation tools for optimising any type of land use provision standard over a specified time period. The simulation environment makes use of an agent-based framework that adapts and integrates a number of well-known methodologies, including Cohort Component Modelling (CCM) for population projection, Spatial Interaction (SI) modelling for residential mobility, and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for various ratio extrapolation. Additionally, new hybrid concepts and approaches have been evaluated, including a household based CCM and the use of Neural Network algorithms (NN) to forecast residential mobility. The case study focuses on Saudi populations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia where the three general education stages at elementary, middle, and secondary levels were optimised for both genders. Moreover, the optimisation time horizon spans 50 years, from 2020 to 2070 while the focus of research at the city level optimises the conventional ratio of area per student based on the present stock of education allocated land and a land consumption ratio defined for every five years. The district level optimisation, on the other hand, balances the demand and supply of education over 50 years by utilising the Ministry of Education's (MOE) predesigned school prototypes. The research findings demonstrate the feasibility of developing a tool for optimising land use guidelines that is capable of producing acceptable outcomes while being sensitive to demographic change and land resource availability

    Multi-agent Spatiotemporal Simulation of Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Operation

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    Autonomous vehicle fleets, consisting of self-driving vehicles, are at the forefront of transportation innovation. The appearance of autonomous vehicles (AVs) provides a new solution for traffic problems and a new market for transportation network companies such as DiDi and Uber. Conducting simulations in the present is indeed crucial to prepare for the eventual operation of autonomous vehicles, as their widespread adoption is expected to occur in the near future. This research adopts an Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) approach to understand and optimize the performance of autonomous vehicle systems. Moreover, Geographic Information System (GIS) technology also plays a crucial role in enhancing the effectiveness and accuracy of the simulation process. GIS enables the representation and manipulation of geospatial data, such as road networks, land-use patterns, and population distribution. The combination of ABM and GIS allows for the incorporation of real-world geographic data, providing a realistic and geographically accurate environment for the agents in the virtual environment. In this thesis, the multi-agent spatiotemporal simulation is conducted by the GAMA platform. The model simulates the behaviour and interactions of individual agents, which are fleet agents and commuters, to observe the emergent behaviour of the entire system. Within the experiment, different scenarios are considered for both people and fleets to explore a range of approaches and strategies. These scenarios aim to evaluate the effectiveness of various approaches in meeting dynamic commute needs and optimizing fleet operations. By simulating these different scenarios and analyzing their outcomes, the study aims to provide insights into the improvement of fleet size and deployment in autonomous vehicle systems. The ultimate goal is to identify effective strategies that lead to optimized fleet size in different scenarios, reduced idling time and emission, improved traffic management, and overall more efficient and sustainable autonomous vehicle systems

    Advances in Artificial Intelligence: Models, Optimization, and Machine Learning

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    The present book contains all the articles accepted and published in the Special Issue ā€œAdvances in Artificial Intelligence: Models, Optimization, and Machine Learningā€ of the MDPI Mathematics journal, which covers a wide range of topics connected to the theory and applications of artificial intelligence and its subfields. These topics include, among others, deep learning and classic machine learning algorithms, neural modelling, architectures and learning algorithms, biologically inspired optimization algorithms, algorithms for autonomous driving, probabilistic models and Bayesian reasoning, intelligent agents and multiagent systems. We hope that the scientific results presented in this book will serve as valuable sources of documentation and inspiration for anyone willing to pursue research in artificial intelligence, machine learning and their widespread applications

    Agent-based Modeling of Urban Exposome Interventions: Prospects, Model Architectures and Methodological Challenges

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    With ever more people living in cities worldwide, it becomes increasingly important to understand and improve the impact of the urban habitat on livability, health behaviors and health outcomes. However, implementing interventions that tackle the exposome in complex urban systems can be costly and have long-term, sometimes unforeseen, impacts. Hence, it is crucial to assess the health impact, cost-effectiveness, and social distributional impacts of possible urban exposome interventions before implementing them. Spatial agent-based modeling can capture complex behavior-environment interactions, exposure dynamics, and social outcomes in a spatial context. This paper discusses model architectures and methodological challenges for successfully modeling urban exposome interventions using spatial agent-based modeling. We review the potential and limitations of the method; model components required to capture active and passive exposure and intervention effects; human-environment interactions and their integration into the macro-level health impact assessment and social costs benefit analysis; strategies for model calibration. Major challenges for a successful application of agent-based modeling to urban exposome intervention assessment are (1) the design of realistic behavioral models that can capture different types of exposure and that respond to urban interventions, (2) the mismatch between the possible granularity of exposure estimates and the evidence for corresponding exposure-response functions, (3) the scalability issues that emerge when aiming to estimate long-term effects such as health and social impacts based on high-resolution models of human-environment interactions, (4) as well as the data- and computational complexity of calibrating the resulting agent-based model. Although challenges exist, strategies are proposed to improve the implementation of ABM in exposome research

    Pedestrian Evacuation: Vulnerable Group Member Influence on the Group Leadersā€™ Decision-Making and the Impact on Evacuation Time

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    As pedestrian evacuations of buildings, outdoor venues, and special events occur, dynamic interactions between pedestrians and vehicles during egress are possible. To model pedestrian and vehicle evacuations, simulation models have evolved to incorporate more realistic crowd characteristics and behaviors to provide improved results. Past studies using modeling and simulation, specifically agent-based modeling, have explored pedestrian behaviors such as decision-making, navigation within a virtual environment, group formations, intra-group interactions, inter-group dynamics, crowd behaviors such as queuing and herding, and pedestrianvehicle interactions. These studies have led to relevant insights helpful to improving the accuracy of evacuation times for normal and emergency egress for preparedness and management purposes. As evacuating crowds are composed of individual pedestrians and social or familial groups, this project contributes to the study of pedestrian evacuation by exploring the incorporation of a subgroup not often considered in this area. Vulnerable individuals, such as the physically disabled, elderly, and children, can change the decision-making dynamic of a group leader while evacuating to safety. Current agent-based simulation models explore the intra- and inter- action and the effects on evacuation times; however, the vulnerable group members\u27 influence is neglected. This project presents enhancements to pedestrian evacuations with vehicle interaction using an agent-based simulation model that includes the presence of vulnerable group members and their impact on decision-making and evacuation times. This project explores how changing behaviors due to the presence of vulnerable group members can collectively cause delays and increase evacuation times. Utilizing verification and validation methods, the credibility and reliability of the simulation model and its results are increased. The results show that the group leaders\u27 decision-making differs when leading a vulnerable group versus a non-vulnerable group. Also, evacuation times increase with increased percentages of vulnerable groups within an evacuating crowd. A simulation tool can be utilized by end-users to explore specific evacuation scenarios in preparation for upcoming events and glean insight into how evacuation times may vary with differing crowd population sizes and compositions. Including vulnerable pedestrians in simulation models for evacuations would improve output accuracy and ultimately improve event training and preparation for future evacuations

    Urban Informatics

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    This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently ā€“ to become ā€˜smartā€™ and ā€˜sustainableā€™. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ā€˜bigā€™ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity

    Urban Informatics

    Get PDF
    This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently ā€“ to become ā€˜smartā€™ and ā€˜sustainableā€™. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ā€˜bigā€™ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity

    Dynamics in Logistics

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    This open access book highlights the interdisciplinary aspects of logistics research. Featuring empirical, methodological, and practice-oriented articles, it addresses the modelling, planning, optimization and control of processes. Chiefly focusing on supply chains, logistics networks, production systems, and systems and facilities for material flows, the respective contributions combine research on classical supply chain management, digitalized business processes, production engineering, electrical engineering, computer science and mathematical optimization. To celebrate 25 years of interdisciplinary and collaborative research conducted at the Bremen Research Cluster for Dynamics in Logistics (LogDynamics), in this book hand-picked experts currently or formerly affiliated with the Cluster provide retrospectives, present cutting-edge research, and outline future research directions
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