227 research outputs found
Identifying spatial invasion of pandemics on metapopulation networks via anatomizing arrival history
Spatial spread of infectious diseases among populations via the mobility of
humans is highly stochastic and heterogeneous. Accurate forecast/mining of the
spread process is often hard to be achieved by using statistical or mechanical
models. Here we propose a new reverse problem, which aims to identify the
stochastically spatial spread process itself from observable information
regarding the arrival history of infectious cases in each subpopulation. We
solved the problem by developing an efficient optimization algorithm based on
dynamical programming, which comprises three procedures: i, anatomizing the
whole spread process among all subpopulations into disjoint componential
patches; ii, inferring the most probable invasion pathways underlying each
patch via maximum likelihood estimation; iii, recovering the whole process by
assembling the invasion pathways in each patch iteratively, without burdens in
parameter calibrations and computer simulations. Based on the entropy theory,
we introduced an identifiability measure to assess the difficulty level that an
invasion pathway can be identified. Results on both artificial and empirical
metapopulation networks show the robust performance in identifying actual
invasion pathways driving pandemic spread.Comment: 14pages, 8 figures; Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Cybernetic
A Metapopulation Model for Chikungunya Including Populations Mobility on a Large-Scale Network
In this work we study the influence of populations mobility on the spread of
a vector-borne disease. We focus on the chikungunya epidemic event that
occurred in 2005-2006 on the R\'eunion Island, Indian Ocean, France, and
validate our models with real epidemic data from the event. We propose a
metapopulation model to represent both a high-resolution patch model of the
island with realistic population densities and also mobility models for humans
(based on real-motion data) and mosquitoes. In this metapopulation network, two
models are coupled: one for the dynamics of the mosquito population and one for
the transmission of the disease. A high-resolution numerical model is created
out from real geographical, demographical and mobility data. The Island is
modeled with an 18 000-nodes metapopulation network. Numerical results show the
impact of the geographical environment and populations' mobility on the spread
of the disease. The model is finally validated against real epidemic data from
the R\'eunion event.Comment: Accepted in Journal of Theoretical biolog
A framework for epidemic spreading in multiplex networks of metapopulations
We propose a theoretical framework for the study of epidemics in structured
metapopulations, with heterogeneous agents, subjected to recurrent mobility
patterns. We propose to represent the heterogeneity in the composition of the
metapopulations as layers in a multiplex network, where nodes would correspond
to geographical areas and layers account for the mobility patterns of agents of
the same class. We analyze both the classical Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible
and the Susceptible-Infected-Removed epidemic models within this framework, and
compare macroscopic and microscopic indicators of the spreading process with
extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are in excellent agreement with
the simulations. We also derive an exact expression of the epidemic threshold
on this general framework revealing a non-trivial dependence on the mobility
parameter. Finally, we use this new formalism to address the spread of diseases
in real cities, specifically in the city of Medellin, Colombia, whose
population is divided into six socio-economic classes, each one identified with
a layer in this multiplex formalism.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figure
Epidemic processes in complex networks
In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence
for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide
range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of
real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and
nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of
epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of
dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic
spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel
analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical
relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity
concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful
theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear.
Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists
share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar
models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and
innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the
paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results
concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally,
the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in
coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio
Targeted Recovery as an Effective Strategy against Epidemic Spreading
We propose a targeted intervention protocol where recovery is restricted to
individuals that have the least number of infected neighbours. Our recovery
strategy is highly efficient on any kind of network, since epidemic outbreaks
are minimal when compared to the baseline scenario of spontaneous recovery. In
the case of spatially embedded networks, we find that an epidemic stays
strongly spatially confined with a characteristic length scale undergoing a
random walk. We demonstrate numerically and analytically that this dynamics
leads to an epidemic spot with a flat surface structure and a radius that grows
linearly with the spreading rate.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure
Persistence, extinction and spatio-temporal synchronization of SIRS cellular automata models
Spatially explicit models have been widely used in today's mathematical
ecology and epidemiology to study persistence and extinction of populations as
well as their spatial patterns. Here we extend the earlier work--static
dispersal between neighbouring individuals to mobility of individuals as well
as multi-patches environment. As is commonly found, the basic reproductive
ratio is maximized for the evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) on diseases'
persistence in mean-field theory. This has important implications, as it
implies that for a wide range of parameters that infection rate will tend
maximum. This is opposite with present results obtained in spatial explicit
models that infection rate is limited by upper bound. We observe the emergence
of trade-offs of extinction and persistence on the parameters of the infection
period and infection rate and show the extinction time having a linear
relationship with respect to system size. We further find that the higher
mobility can pronouncedly promote the persistence of spread of epidemics, i.e.,
the phase transition occurs from extinction domain to persistence domain, and
the spirals' wavelength increases as the mobility increasing and ultimately, it
will saturate at a certain value. Furthermore, for multi-patches case, we find
that the lower coupling strength leads to anti-phase oscillation of infected
fraction, while higher coupling strength corresponds to in-phase oscillation.Comment: 12page
Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseases
Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of realistic scenarios that include population heterogeneity, social structures, and mobility processes down to the individual level. The advances in the realism of epidemic description call for the explicit modeling of individual behavioral responses to the presence of disease within modeling frameworks. Here we formulate and analyze a metapopulation model that incorporates several scenarios of self-initiated behavioral changes into the mobility patterns of individuals. We find that prevalence-based travel limitations do not alter the epidemic invasion threshold. Strikingly, we observe in both synthetic and data-driven numerical simulations that when travelers decide to avoid locations with high levels of prevalence, this self-initiated behavioral change may enhance disease spreading. Our results point out that the real-time availability of information on the disease and the ensuing behavioral changes in the population may produce a negative impact on disease containment and mitigation
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