The Role of Dust in Models of Population Synthesis

We have employed state-of-the-art evolutionary models of low and intermediate-mass AGB stars, and included the effect of circumstellar dust shells on the spectral energy distribution (SED) of AGB stars, to revise the Padua library of isochrones (Bertelli et al. 1994). The major revision involves the thermally pulsing AGB phase, that is now taken from fully evolutionary calculations by Weiss & Ferguson (2009). Two libraries of about 600 AGB dust-enshrouded SEDs each have also been calculated, one for oxygen-rich M-stars and one for carbon-rich C-stars. Each library accounts for different values of input parameters like the optical depth {\tau}, dust composition, and temperature of the inner boundary of the dust shell. These libraries of dusty AGB spectra have been implemented into a large composite library of theoretical stellar spectra, to cover all regions of the Hertzsprung-Russell Diagram (HRD) crossed by the isochrones. With the aid of the above isochrones and libraries of stellar SEDs, we have calculated the spectro-photometric properties (SEDs, magnitudes, and colours) of single-generation stellar populations (SSPs) for six metallicities, more than fifty ages (from 3 Myr to 15 Gyr), and nine choices of the Initial Mass Function. The new isochrones and SSPs have been compared to the colour-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) of field populations in the LMC and SMC, with particular emphasis on AGB stars, and the integrated colours of star clusters in the same galaxies, using data from the SAGE (Surveying the Agents of Galaxy Evolution) catalogues. We have also examined the integrated colours of a small sample of star clusters located in the outskirts of M31. The agreement between theory and observations is generally good. In particular, the new SSPs reproduce the red tails of the AGB star distribution in the CMDs of field stars in the Magellanic Clouds.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Post-liquefaction reconsolidation of sand.

Loosely packed sand that is saturated with water can liquefy during an earthquake, potentially causing significant damage. Once the shaking is over, the excess pore water pressures that developed during the earthquake gradually dissipate, while the surface of the soil settles, in a process called post-liquefaction reconsolidation. When examining reconsolidation, the soil is typically divided in liquefied and solidified parts, which are modelled separately. The aim of this paper is to show that this fragmentation is not necessary. By assuming that the hydraulic conductivity and the one-dimensional stiffness of liquefied sand have real, positive values, the equation of consolidation can be numerically solved throughout a reconsolidating layer. Predictions made in this manner show good agreement with geotechnical centrifuge experiments. It is shown that the variation of one-dimensional stiffness with effective stress and void ratio is the most crucial parameter in accurately capturing reconsolidation.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Royal Society Publishing via https://doi.org10.1098/rspa.2015.074

Development and evaluation of a watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model

A watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed to predict spatially distributed short- and long-term rainfall runoff generation and routing using relatively simple methodologies and state-of-the-art spatial data in a GIS environment. In Distributed-Clark, spatially distributed excess rainfall estimated with the SCS curve number method and a GIS-based set of separated unit hydrographs (spatially distributed unit hydrograph) are utilized to calculate a direct runoff flow hydrograph, and time-varied SCS CN values and conditional unit hydrograph approach for different runoff depth-based flow convolution are also used to compute long-term rainfall-runoff flow hydrographs. Spatial data processing and model execution can be performed by Python script tools that were developed in a GIS platform. Model case studies of short- and long-term hydrologic application for four river watersheds to evaluate performance using spatially distributed (Thiessen polygon and NEXRAD radar-based) precipitation data demonstrate relatively good fit against observed streamflow as well as improved fit in comparison with the outputs of spatially averaged rainfall data simulations as follows: (1) application with 24 single storm events using Thiessen polygon distributed rainfall provided overall statistical results in ENS of 0.84 and R2 of 0.86 (improved ENS by 1.8% and R2 by 2.1% relative to averaged data inputs) for direct runoff, (2) simulation of direct runoff flow for the same storm events using NEXRAD data provided ENS of 0.85 and R2 of 0.89 (increase of ENS by 3.0% and R 2 by 6.0%), and (3) 6-year long-term daily NEXRAD data provided total simulated streamflow statistics of ENS 0.71 and R2 0.72 (increased ENS of 42.0% and R2 of 33.3%). These results also indicate that NEXRAD radar-based data are more appropriate for rainfall-runoff flow predictions than rain gauge observations by capturing spatially distributed rainfall amounts and having fewer missing or erroneous records. The Distributed-Clark model presented in this research is, therefore, potentially significant to improved implementation of hydrologic simulation, particularly for spatially distributed rainfall-runoff routing using gridded types of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) data in a GIS environment, as a relatively simple (few parameter) hydrologic model

Population Synthesis in the Blue IV: Accurate Model Predictions for Lick Indices and UBV Colors in Single Stellar Populations

[Abridged] We present new model predictions for 16 Lick absorption line indices from Hdelta through Fe5335, and UBV colors for single stellar populations (SPs) with ages ranging between 1 and 15 Gyr, [Fe/H] ranging from -1.3 to +0.3, and variable abundance ratios. We develop a method to estimate mean ages and abundances of Fe, C, N, Mg, and Ca that explores the sensitivity of the various indices to those parameters. When applied to high-S/N Galactic cluster data, the models match the clusters' elemental abundances and ages with high precision. Analyzing stacked SDSS spectra of early-type galaxies brighter than Lstar, we find mean luminosity-weighted ages of the order of ~ 8 Gyr and iron abundances slightly below solar. Abundance ratios, [X/Fe], are higher than solar, and correlate positively with galaxy luminosity. Nitrogen is the element whose abundance correlates the most strongly with luminosity, which seems to indicate secondary enrichment. This result may impose a lower limit of 50-200 Myr to the time-scale of star formation in early-type galaxies. Unlike in the case of clusters, in galaxies bluer Balmer lines yield younger ages than Hbeta. This age discrepancy is stronger for lower luminosity galaxies. We examine four scenarios to explain this trend. The most likely is the presence of small amounts of a young/intermediate-age SP component. Two-component models provide a better match to the data when the mass fraction of the young component is a few %. This result implies that star formation has been extended in early-type galaxies, and more so in less massive galaxies, lending support to the ``downsizing'' scenario. It also implies that SP synthesis models are capable of constraining not only the mean ages of SPs in galaxies, but also their age spread.Comment: To appear in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. 55 Pages, using emulateapj5.sty. Full version, containing all (enlarged) figures can be found at http://www.astro.virginia.edu/~rps7v/Models/ms.pdf . A number of useful tables in the Appendix can be obtained in advance of publication by request to the autho

Stormwater Disconnection: Transient Scenario Analysis of Intervention Flexibility

Urban drainage networks protect people, society, and the environment from the hazards presented by domestic and industrial effluent, and urban stormwater run-off. However, urban drainage networks are financially and carbon intensive, and their failure results in damage to people and the environment. The likelihood and magnitude of failure is anticipated to increase in the future as a result of pressures including climate change and urbanisation. The rate and extent of these pressures manifesting is uncertain. Sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) are structural measures that can be retrofitted to replace or augment an urban drainage network, reducing the likelihood of failure now and in the future. Adaptation of infrastructure to encroaching future pressures requires infrastructure constructed in the present to be flexible. An existing method for assessing flexibility is combined with transient scenario analysis to enable the flexibility of conventional solutions, and source-control and regional-control retrofit SuDS interventions to be compared in two real-world case-study catchments. A new multi-criteria assessment framework is proposed for the comparison of these interventions. A method for distributing retrofit SuDS within an urban drainage catchment is developed from first principles. It is a hydraulic modelling method based on identifying potentially disparate locations within an urban drainage catchment that possess similar times of concentration to a point of interest within the network. The concept of the efficiency of stormwater disconnection is introduced. The developed method is shown to be more effective at identifying efficient disconnection locations than existing methods in two real-world case study catchments

Electromechanical Wave Imaging

Cardiac conduction abnormalities and arrhythmias are associated with stroke, heart failure, and sudden cardiac death, and remain a major cause of death and disability. However, the imaging tools currently available to the physician to guide these treatments by mapping the activation sequence of the heart are invasive, ionizing, time-consuming, and costly. In this dissertation, Electromechanical Wave Imaging (EWI) is described with an aim to characterize normal and abnormal rhythms noninvasively, transmurally, at the point of care, and in real time. More specifically, the methods to map the electromechanical wave (EW), i.e., the transient deformations occurring in response to the electrical activation of the heart, are developed and optimized. The correlation between EW and the electrical activation sequence during both normal and abnormal rhythms is demonstrated in canines in vivo and in silico. Finally, EWI is shown to noninvasively detect and characterize arrhythmias and conduction disorders in humans. Novel ultrasound imaging methodologies were developed to track the EW. Radio-frequency (RF) frames acquired at high frame rates were used in conjunction with cross-correlation algorithms to map the onset of the small, localized, transient deformations resulting from the electrical activation and forming the EW. To validate the capability of the EW to characterize cardiac rhythm, it was compared against the electrical activation in vivo and in silico. A high correlation between the electrical and electromechanical activations was obtained in normal canines in vivo during various pacing schemes and sinus rhythm. An in vivo-in silico framework was also developed to demonstrate that this correlation is maintained transmurally and independently of the imaging angle. EWI was also validated in abnormal canine hearts in vivo during ischemia, left bundle branch block, or atrio-ventricular dissociation. In a clinical feasibility study, we demonstrated that EWI was capable of noninvasively mapping normal and abnormal activation patterns in all four cardiac chambers of human subjects using a readily available clinical ultrasound scanner. Specifically, EWI maps were generated for three heart failure patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) devices and for three patients with atrial flutter who subsequently underwent catheter mapping and radiofrequency ablation. Preliminary validation of EWI maps against invasive transcutaneous electroanatomical cardiac mapping was also demonstrated. EWI has the potential of becoming a noninvasive and highly translational technology that can serve as a unique imaging tool for the early detection, diagnosis and treatment monitoring and follow-up of arrhythmias and conduction disorders through ultrasound-based mapping of the transmural electromechanical activation sequence reliably, at the point of care, and in real time

Mapping the Substrate of Atrial Fibrillation: Tools and Techniques

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia that affects an estimated 33.5 million people worldwide. Despite its prevalence and economic burden, treatments remain relatively ineffective. Interventional treatments using catheter ablation have shown more success in cure rates than pharmacologic methods for AF. However, success rates diminish drastically in patients with more advanced forms of the disease. The focus of this research is to develop a mapping strategy to improve the success of ablation. To achieve this goal, I used a computational model of excitation in order to simulate atrial fibrillation and evaluate mapping strategies that could guide ablation. I first propose a substrate guided mapping strategy to allow patient-specific treatment rather than a one size fits all approach. Ablation guided by this method reduced AF episode durations compared to baseline durations and an equal amount of random ablation in computational simulations. Because the accuracy of electrogram mapping is dependent upon catheter-tissue contact, I then provide a method to identify the distance between the electrode recording sites and the tissue surface using only the electrogram signal. The algorithm was validated both in silico and in vivo. Finally, I develop a classification algorithm for the identification of activation patterns using simultaneous, multi-site electrode recordings to aid in the development of an appropriate ablation strategy during AF. These findings provide a framework for future mapping and ablation studies in humans and assist in the development of individualized ablation strategies for patients with higher disease burden

Co-creative public transport planning using a web -based stakeholder engagement tool

Thesis: S.M. in Transportation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2018.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (page 61).Using new technologies, such as web-based applications and online map visualizations, to help public engagement for public transit campaigns is an emerging trend in the urban planning field. Scenario simulations and map-based visualizations to show accessibility or travel time impacts can provide users insights into the possible results of new transportation projects. CoAXs (Collaborative Accessibility-based Stakeholder Engagement platform) is a web-based application that has been implemented in experimental public engagement exercises in three cities in the United States to test its potential for facilitating the public engagement process around public transit advocacy. In 2016 and 2017, two types of experiments were conducted using CoAXs in Boston, New Orleans and Atlanta. One used a workshop-based approach, in which participants were gathered in a room and used CoAXs with facilitators' help. The other experiment took an online, remote approach, in which people used CoAXs by themselves, with the help of an online tutorial. By using a web log and survey data, this research found that the self-learning process works in the remote version and the more a user uses it, the more s/he thinks CoAXs is easy to use. However, the remote version performed worse than the workshop approach in terms of usability and possibility for inspiring imagination.by Xin Zheng.S.M. in Transportatio

Refined parameters of the planet orbiting HD 189733

We report on the BVRI multi-band follow-up photometry of the transiting extrasolar planet HD 189733b. We revise the transit parameters and find planetary radius RP = 1.154+/- 0.032RJ and inclination i_P = 85.79+/-0.24deg. The new density (~ 1g cm-3) is significantly higher than the former estimate (~ 0.75g cm-3); this shows that from the current sample of 9 transiting planets, only HD 209458 (and possibly OGLE-10b) have anomalously large radii and low densities. We note that due to the proximity of the parent star, HD 189733b currently has one of the most precise radius determinations among extrasolar planets. We calculate new ephemerides: P = 2.218573+/-0.000020 days, T0 = 2453629.39420+/-0.00024 (HJD), and estimate the timing offsets of the 11 distinct transits with respect to the predictions of a constant orbital period, which can be used to reveal the presence of additional planets in the system.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Ap

Electromechanical Wave Imaging in the clinic: localization of atrial and ventricular arrhythmias and quantification of cardiac resynchronization therapy response

Cardiac conduction abnormalities can often lead to heart failure, stroke and sudden cardiac death. Heart disease stands as the leading cause of mortality and morbidity in the United States, accounting for 30% of all deaths. Early detection of malfunctions such as arrhythmias and systolic heart failure, the two heart conditions studied in this dissertation, would definitely help reduce the burden cardiovascular diseases have on public health and overcome the current clinical challenges. The imaging techniques currently available to doctors for cardiac activation sequence mapping are invasive, ionizing, time-consuming and costly. Thus, there is an undeniable urgent need for a non-invasive and reliable imaging tool, which could play a crucial role in the early diagnosis of conduction diseases and allow physicians to choose the best course of action. The 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is the current non-invasive clinical tool routinely used to diagnose and localize cardiac arrhythmias prior to intracardiac catheter ablation. However, it has limited accuracy and can be subject to operator bias. Besides, QRS complex narrowing on the clinical ECG after pacing device implantation is also used for response assessment in patients undergoing Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT). The latter is an established treatment for systolic heart failure patients who have Left Bundle Branch Block as well as a reduced ejection fraction and prolonged QRS duration. Yet, it is still not well understood why 30 to 40 % of CRT recipients do not respond. Echocardiography, due to its portability and ease-of-use, is the most frequently used imaging modality in clinical cardiology. In this dissertation, we assess the clinical performance of Electromechanical Wave Imaging (EWI) as a high frame rate ultrasound-based functional modality that can non-invasively map the electromechanical activation of the heart, i.e., the transient deformations immediately following the electrical activation. The objective of this dissertation is to demonstrate the potential clinical value of EWI for both arrhythmia detection and CRT characterization applications. The first step in translating EWI to the clinic was ensuring that the technique could reli- ably and reproducibly measure the electromechanical activation sequence independently of the probe angle and imaging view in healthy human volunteers (n=7). This dissertation then demonstrated the accuracy of EWI for localizing a variety of ventricular and atrial arrhythmias (accessory pathways in Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome, premature ventricular contractions, focal atrial tachycardia and macro-reentrant atrial flutter) in pediatric (n=14) and adult (n=55) patients prior to catheter ablation more accurately than 12-lead ECG predictions, as validated against electroanatomical mapping. Additionally, 3D-rendered EWI isochrones were illustrated to be capable of significantly distinguishing different biventricular pacing conditions (p≤0.05) with the RWAT and LWAT metrics, assessing the ventricular dyssynchrony change in heart failure patients (n=16) undergoing CRT, and visualizing it in 3D. EWI also provided quantification of % in CRT patients (n=38): the amount of left-ventricular resynchronized myocardium, which was found to be a reliable response predictor at 3-, 6-, or 9-month clinical follow-up through its post-CRT values by significantly identifying super-responders from non-responders within 24 hours of implantation (p≤0.05). Furthermore, 3D-rendered isochrones successfully characterized the ventricular activation resulting from His Bundle pacing for the first time (n=4), which was undistinguishable from true physiological activation in sinus rhythm healthy volunteers with the EWI-based activation time distribution dispersion metric. The dispersion was, however, reported to significantly discriminate novel His pacing from other more conventional biventricular pacing schemes (p≤0.01). Finally, we developed and optimized a fully automated zero-crossing algorithm towards a faster, more robust and less observer dependent EWI isochrone generation process. The support vector machine (SVM) and Random Forest machine learning models were both shown capable of successfully identifying the accessory pathway in WPW patients and the pacing electrode location in paced canines. Nevertheless, the best performing algorithm was hereby proven to be the Random Forest classifier with n=200 trees with a precision rising to 97%, and a predictivity that was not impacted by the type of testing dataset it was applied to (human or canine). Overall, in this dissertation, we established the clinical potential of EWI as a viable assisting visual feedback tool, that could not only be used for diagnosis and treatment planning prior to surgical procedures, but also for monitoring during, and assessing long-term resolution of arrhythmia after catheter ablation or heart failure after a CRT implant