Multi-wavelength investigation of energy release and chromospheric evaporation in solar flares

For a comprehensive understanding of the energy release and chromospheric evaporation processes in solar flares it is necessary to perform a combined multi-wavelength analysis using observations from space-based and ground-based observatories, and compare the results with predictions of the radiative hydrodynamic (RHD) flare models. Initially, the case study of spatially-resolved chromospheric evaporation properties for an M 1.0-class solar flare (SOL2014-06-12T21:12) using data form IRIS (Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph), HMI/SDO (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory), and VIS/GST (Visible Imaging Spectrometer at Goode Solar Telescope), demonstrate a complicated nature of evaporation and its connection to the magnetic field topology. Following this study, the Interactive Multi-Instrument Database of Solar Flares (IMIDSF) is designed for efficient search, integration, and representation of solar flares for statistical studies. Comparison of the energy release and chromospheric evaporation properties for seven solar flares simultaneously observed by IRIS and RHESSI (Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager) with predictions of the RHD electron beam-heating flare models reveals weak correlations between deposited energy fluxes and Doppler shifts of IRIS lines for observations and strong fore models, together with other quantitative discrepancies. Statistical analysis of properties of Soft X-Ray (SXR) emission, plasma temperature (T), and emission measure (EM), derived from GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) observations demonstrate that flares form two groups, “T-controlled” and “EM-controlled”, distinguished by different contribution of T and EM to the SXR peak formation and presumably evolving in loops of different lengths. Also, the modeling of the SDO/HMI line-of-sight observables for RHD flare models highlights that for relatively high deposited energy fluxes (≥ 5.0 x 1010 erg cm-2 s-1) the sharp magnetic transients and Doppler velocities observed during the solar flares by HMI/SDO should be interpreted with caution. Finally, problems of the solar flare prediction and the role of the magnetic field Polarity Inversion Lines (PIL) in the initiation and development of flares are considered. In particular, the possibility to enhance the daily operational forecasts of M-class flares by considering jointly PIL and other magnetic field and SXR characteristics is demonstrated, with corresponding Brier Skill Scores (BSS = 0.29 ± 0.04) higher than for the SWPC NOAA operational probabilities (BSS = 0.09 ± 0.04)

The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie

Machine learning in solar physics

The application of machine learning in solar physics has the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of the complex processes that take place in the atmosphere of the Sun. By using techniques such as deep learning, we are now in the position to analyze large amounts of data from solar observations and identify patterns and trends that may not have been apparent using traditional methods. This can help us improve our understanding of explosive events like solar flares, which can have a strong effect on the Earth environment. Predicting hazardous events on Earth becomes crucial for our technological society. Machine learning can also improve our understanding of the inner workings of the sun itself by allowing us to go deeper into the data and to propose more complex models to explain them. Additionally, the use of machine learning can help to automate the analysis of solar data, reducing the need for manual labor and increasing the efficiency of research in this field.Comment: 100 pages, 13 figures, 286 references, accepted for publication as a Living Review in Solar Physics (LRSP

Determining of Solar Power by Using Machine Learning Methods in a Specified Region

In this study, it is aimed to estimate the solar power according to the hourly meteorological data of the specified location measured between 2002 and 2006 by using different Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. Data Mining Processes (DMP) were used to select the most appropriate input variables from these measured data. Data groups created using DMP were evaluated according to three different ML algorithms such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). It can be concluded that DMP-ML based prediction models are more successful than models developed using all available data. The most successful model developed among these models estimated the hourly solar power potential with an accuracy of 97%. Also, different error measurement statistics were used to evaluate ML algorithms. According to Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error, 6.12%, 7.22% and 12.72% values were found in the most successful prediction models developed using ANN, KNN and SVR, respectively. In addition, from the meteorological data used in this study the most effective data on solar power as a result of DMP were shown to be Temperature and Hourly Sunshine Duration

Review of solar energetic particle models

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars. Thus, it is critical to improve the scientific understanding of SEP events and use this understanding to develop and improve SEP forecasting capabilities to support operations. Many SEP models exist or are in development using a wide variety of approaches and with differing goals. These include computationally intensive physics-based models, fast and light empirical models, machine learning-based models, and mixed-model approaches. The aim of this paper is to summarize all of the SEP models currently developed in the scientific community, including a description of model approach, inputs and outputs, free parameters, and any published validations or comparisons with data.</p

Predicting Pilot Misperception of Runway Excursion Risk Through Machine Learning Algorithms of Recorded Flight Data

The research used predictive models to determine pilot misperception of runway excursion risk associated with unstable approaches. The Federal Aviation Administration defined runway excursion as a veer-off or overrun of the runway surface. The Federal Aviation Administration also defined a stable approach as an aircraft meeting the following criteria: (a) on target approach airspeed, (b) correct attitude, (c) landing configuration, (d) nominal descent angle/rate, and (e) on a straight flight path to the runway touchdown zone. Continuing an unstable approach to landing was defined as Unstable Approach Risk Misperception in this research. A review of the literature revealed that an unstable approach followed by the failure to execute a rejected landing was a common contributing factor in runway excursions. Flight Data Recorder data were archived and made available by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for public use. These data were collected over a four-year period from the flight data recorders of a fleet of 35 regional jets operating in the National Airspace System. The archived data were processed and explored for evidence of unstable approaches and to determine whether or not a rejected landing was executed. Once identified, those data revealing evidence of unstable approaches were processed for the purposes of building predictive models. SAS™ Enterprise MinerR was used to explore the data, as well as to build and assess predictive models. The advanced machine learning algorithms utilized included: (a) support vector machine, (b) random forest, (c) gradient boosting, (d) decision tree, (e) logistic regression, and (f) neural network. The models were evaluated and compared to determine the best prediction model. Based on the model comparison, the decision tree model was determined to have the highest predictive value. The Flight Data Recorder data were then analyzed to determine predictive accuracy of the target variable and to determine important predictors of the target variable, Unstable Approach Risk Misperception. Results of the study indicated that the predictive accuracy of the best performing model, decision tree, was 99%. Findings indicated that six variables stood out in the prediction of Unstable Approach Risk Misperception: (1) glideslope deviation, (2) selected approach speed deviation (3) localizer deviation, (4) flaps not extended, (5) drift angle, and (6) approach speed deviation. These variables were listed in order of importance based on results of the decision tree predictive model analysis. The results of the study are of interest to aviation researchers as well as airline pilot training managers. It is suggested that the ability to predict the probability of pilot misperception of runway excursion risk could influence the development of new pilot simulator training scenarios and strategies. The research aids avionics providers in the development of predictive runway excursion alerting display technologies

Computational Optimizations for Machine Learning

The present book contains the 10 articles finally accepted for publication in the Special Issue “Computational Optimizations for Machine Learning” of the MDPI journal Mathematics, which cover a wide range of topics connected to the theory and applications of machine learning, neural networks and artificial intelligence. These topics include, among others, various types of machine learning classes, such as supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning, deep neural networks, convolutional neural networks, GANs, decision trees, linear regression, SVM, K-means clustering, Q-learning, temporal difference, deep adversarial networks and more. It is hoped that the book will be interesting and useful to those developing mathematical algorithms and applications in the domain of artificial intelligence and machine learning as well as for those having the appropriate mathematical background and willing to become familiar with recent advances of machine learning computational optimization mathematics, which has nowadays permeated into almost all sectors of human life and activity

Plantwide simulation and monitoring of offshore oil and gas production facility

Monitoring is one of the major concerns in offshore oil and gas production platform since the access to the offshore facilities is difficult. Also, it is quite challenging to extract oil and gas safely in such a harsh environment, and any abnormalities may lead to a catastrophic event. The process data, including all possible faulty scenarios, is required to build an appropriate monitoring system. Since the plant wide process data is not available in the literature, a dynamic model and simulation of an offshore oil and gas production platform is developed by using Aspen HYSYS. Modeling and simulations are handy tools for designing and predicting the accurate behavior of a production plant. The model was built based on the gas processing plant at the North Sea platform reported in Voldsund et al. (2013). Several common faults from different fault categories were simulated in the dynamic system, and their impacts on the overall hydrocarbon production were analyzed. The simulated data are then used to build a monitoring system for each of the faulty states. A new monitoring method has been proposed by combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Dynamic PCA (DPCA) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The application of ANN to process systems is quite difficult as it involves a very large number of input neurons to model the system. Training of such large scale network is time-consuming and provides poor accuracy with a high error rate. In PCA-ANN and DPCA-ANN monitoring system, PCA and DPCA are used to reduce the dimension of the training data set and extract the main features of measured variables. Subsequently ANN uses this lower-dimensional score vectors to build a training model and classify the abnormalities. It is found that the proposed approach reduces the time to train ANN and successfully diagnose, detects and classifies the faults with a high accuracy rate