Fitting Prediction Rule Ensembles with R Package pre

Prediction rule ensembles (PREs) are sparse collections of rules, offering highly interpretable regression and classification models. This paper presents the R package pre, which derives PREs through the methodology of Friedman and Popescu (2008). The implementation and functionality of package pre is described and illustrated through application on a dataset on the prediction of depression. Furthermore, accuracy and sparsity of PREs is compared with that of single trees, random forest and lasso regression in four benchmark datasets. Results indicate that pre derives ensembles with predictive accuracy comparable to that of random forests, while using a smaller number of variables for prediction

The role of social interaction in farmers' climate adaptation choice

Adaptation to climate change might not always occur, with potentially\ud catastrophic results. Success depends on coordinated actions at both\ud governmental and individual levels (public and private adaptation). Even for a “wet” country like the Netherlands, climate change projections show that the frequency and severity of droughts are likely to increase. Freshwater is an important factor for agricultural production. A deficit causes damage to crop production and consequently to a loss of income. Adaptation is the key to decrease farmers’ vulnerability at the micro level and the sector’s vulnerability at the macro level. Individual adaptation decision-making is determined by the behavior of economic agents and social interaction among them. This can be best studied with agentbased modelling. Given the uncertainty about future weather conditions and the costs and effectiveness of adaptation strategies, a farmer in the model uses a cognitive process (or heuristic) to make adaptation decisions. In this process, he can rely on his experiences and on information from interactions within his social network. Interaction leads to the spread of information and knowledge that causes learning. Learning changes the conditions for individual adaptation decisionmaking. All these interactions cause emergent phenomena: the diffusion of adaptation strategies and a change of drought vulnerability of the agricultural sector. In this paper, we present a conceptual model and the first implementation of an agent-based model. The aim is to study the role of interaction in a farmer’s social network on adaptation decisions and on the diffusion of adaptation strategies\ud and vulnerability of the agricultural sector. Micro-level survey data will be used to parameterize agents’ behavioral and interaction rules at a later stage. This knowledge is necessary for the successful design of public adaptation strategies, since governmental adaptation actions need to be fine-tuned to private adaptation behavior

Open source environment to define constraints in route planning for GIS-T

Route planning for transportation systems is strongly related to shortest path algorithms, an optimization problem extensively studied in the literature. To find the shortest path in a network one usually assigns weights to each branch to represent the difficulty of taking such branch. The weights construct a linear preference function ordering the variety of alternatives from the most to the least attractive.Postprint (published version

The vulnerability of rules in complex work environments: dynamism and uncertainty pose problems for cognition

Many complex work environments rely heavily on cognitive operators using rules. Operators sometimes fail to implement rules, with catastrophic human, social and economic costs. Rule-based error is widely reported, yet the mechanisms of rule vulnerability have received less attention. This paper examines rule vulnerability in the complex setting of airline transport operations. We examined ‘the stable approach criteria rule’, which acts as a system defence during the approach to land. The study experimentally tested whether system state complexity influenced rule failure. The results showed increased uncertainty and dynamism led to increased likelihood of rule failure. There was also an interaction effect, indicating complexity from different sources can combine to further constrain rule-based response. We discuss the results in relation to recent aircraft accidents and suggest that ‘rule-based error’ could be progressed to embrace rule vulnerability, fragility and failure. This better reflects the influence that system behaviour and cognitive variety have on rule-based response. Practitioner Summary: In this study, we examined mechanisms of rule vulnerability in the complex setting of airline transport operations. The results suggest work scenarios featuring high uncertainty and dynamism constrain rule-based response, leading to rules becoming vulnerable, fragile or failing completely. This has significant implications for rule-intensive, safety critical work environments

Refining interaction search through signed iterative Random Forests

Advances in supervised learning have enabled accurate prediction in biological systems governed by complex interactions among biomolecules. However, state-of-the-art predictive algorithms are typically black-boxes, learning statistical interactions that are difficult to translate into testable hypotheses. The iterative Random Forest algorithm took a step towards bridging this gap by providing a computationally tractable procedure to identify the stable, high-order feature interactions that drive the predictive accuracy of Random Forests (RF). Here we refine the interactions identified by iRF to explicitly map responses as a function of interacting features. Our method, signed iRF, describes subsets of rules that frequently occur on RF decision paths. We refer to these rule subsets as signed interactions. Signed interactions share not only the same set of interacting features but also exhibit similar thresholding behavior, and thus describe a consistent functional relationship between interacting features and responses. We describe stable and predictive importance metrics to rank signed interactions. For each SPIM, we define null importance metrics that characterize its expected behavior under known structure. We evaluate our proposed approach in biologically inspired simulations and two case studies: predicting enhancer activity and spatial gene expression patterns. In the case of enhancer activity, s-iRF recovers one of the few experimentally validated high-order interactions and suggests novel enhancer elements where this interaction may be active. In the case of spatial gene expression patterns, s-iRF recovers all 11 reported links in the gap gene network. By refining the process of interaction recovery, our approach has the potential to guide mechanistic inquiry into systems whose scale and complexity is beyond human comprehension

Piloting VAKE (Values and Knowledge Education) in the Education for Practice of Nurses.

Imagine the following situation: You are a nurse for elderly people, going to the homes of your patients. A female patient tells you on our first visit after hospital discharge following a hip fracture surgery that she does not want to be at home, because she is not well enough to be alone and she needs therapy with oxygen in permanent basis until she recovers from a respiratory temporary infection situa¬tion. This kind of situations is the starting point for an educational sequence that ad-dresses both values (here: life, human dignity, respect, loneliness) and knowledge (different medical treatments, legal rules, etc.). The example shows how intensely interrelated the values and the facts are. Based on this example we introduce the constructivist didactical tool VaKE (Values and Knowledge Education) that permits to combine both issues, and present a pilot study using this method in the education of nurses.Tempus/LLAF; VAKEinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Towards self-protecting ubiquitous systems : monitoring trust-based interactions

The requirement for spontaneous interaction in ubiquitous computing creates security issues over and above those present in other areas of computing, deeming traditional approaches ineffective. As a result, to support secure collaborations entities must implement self-protective measures. Trust management is a solution well suited to this task as reasoning about future interactions is based on the outcome of past ones. This requires monitoring of interactions as they take place. Such monitoring also allows us to take corrective action when interactions are proceeding unsatisfactorily. In this vein, we first present a trust-based model of interaction based on event structures. We then describe our ongoing work in the development of a monitor architecture which enables self-protective actions to be carried out at critical points during principal interaction. Finally, we discuss some potential directions for future work

Налогообложение в реформах управления государственными финансами

Общепринятые теоретические подходы к реформированию государственной экономики, как правило, вполне пригодны для целей управления изменениями налоговых систем и их составляющих. В частности, в налоговом администрировании особенно проблемным представляется всемерное обеспечение реализации принципов горизонтальной справедливости, а также внедрение подходов, при которых для налогоплательщиков выполнение обязательств по внесению платежей становится более выгодным, чем уклонение от их уплаты. Во многих развивающихся странах неспособность правительства в связи с политическими причинами реализовать задекларированные программы часто является основным препятствием социально-экономического развития. Имплементация многих инициатив по реформированию не всегда успешна из-за отсутствия четких стратегий в государственной политике структурных изменений. Широко известны модели применения новых подходов в системах управления государственными финансами, в частности, при формировании и движении доходов, расходов и долгов. При стандартном анализе налоговых систем часто игнорируется результативность налогового администрирования, связанная с трансакционными издержками и влиянием теневой экономики: речь идет о затратах плательщиков обязательных платежей и сборов и налоговых органов, а также об иных, не подлежащих количественной оценке составляющих налогообложения, включая мотивацию нарушений законодательства. Большое значение имеет налоговое поведение, предотвращение оппортунизма, регулирование способов публичного раскрытия информации, применение системных инструментов взимания налогов. При разработке детальных планов реформирования необходимо стремиться к максимальной эффективности непрерывных циклов движения финансовых ресурсов в доходах и расходах, а также учитывать угрозы нарушения бюджетных процессов, при этом одним из главных должен быть вопрос выбора целей и приоритетов. Известны случаи, когда донорское сообщество и международные организации настаивали на необходимости внедрения определенных образцов «лучшей практики», особенно если реформирование осуществлялось при их финансовой поддержке. Отдавая должное многим позитивным примерам, следует иметь в виду, что для налоговой системы каждой страны характерны специфические черты, поэтому эффективность ее реформирования во многом будет зависеть от учета местных особенностей. В целом задача управления изменениями в системах государственных финансов усложняется внешними и внутренними факторами неопределенности, поэтому при любых обстоятельствах необходимо обеспечивать непрерывность бюджетного процесса и исполнение государством своих конституционных обязательств. Регуляторная функция экономики должна быть направлена на реализацию целей устойчивого экономического развития, соответственно, в рамках налоговой системы, как стратегического элемента госрегулирования, должны работать эффективные механизмы налогов, сборов, а также льгот и преференций во взаимосвязи с расходными статьями, трансфертами и субсидиями.Generally, standard theoretical approaches to reforming national economy are quite usable for goals of managing changes of taxation systems and their components. In particular, of most problematic issue for tax administration is all-round provision of implementing principles of horizontal justice, as well as introducing the approaches which allow the execution of commitments on making payments by taxpayers to be more profitable than evasion. In many developing countries, due to political reasons the government’s inability to implement their declared programs is frequently the main obstacle to improving the socio-economic progress. Implementation of many reform initiatives is not always successful due to absence of clear strategies in governmental policy of structural transformations. There are wide known models of applying new approaches in systems of public finance management (PFM), particularly, in regard of formation and dynamics of revenues, expenses, debts. The standard analysis of tax systems ignores, as a rule, the efficiency of tax administration connected with transaction costs and shadow economy influence: the issue is about the expenses, on one hand, for payers of obligatory payments and levies, and on the other hand, for taxation authorities, as well as about the other taxation components, non-subject to quantitative assessment, including motivation of breaching legislation. Of great significance is tax behavior, prevention of opportunism, regulation of not only tax rates and taxation basis but also of ways of public information accessibility, application of systemic toolkits of tax collection. While developing detailed plans of reforming, it is necessary to strain after maximum efficiency of continuous cycles of financial resource movements in terms of revenues and expenditures, as well as to consider challenges for interruption of the budget processes. At that, one of the main issue is, obviously, selection of targets and priorities. There are known cases, when the donor community and international organizations insist on “the best practices” introduction, especially if the reforming is carried out with their financial support. In justice to numerous positive examples, it should be borne in mind that each taxation system of every country is characterized by their specific traits, so the efficiency of its reforming will at large depend on considering local features. On the whole, the task of managing changes in the public finance systems is getting more complicated in the context of external and internal factors of uncertainty. Thus, in any circumstances it is vital to ensure continuity of the budget process, as well as execution by the state of its constitutional obligations. The regulatory potential of economy should be focused on implementing sustainable economic development goals. Accordingly, in the taxation system framework, as a strategic tool for governmental regulation, there must function efficient mechanisms of taxes and levies, as well as benefits and preferences in coordination with expenditure items, transfers and subsidies