Impact of misinformation in temporal network epidemiology

We investigate the impact of misinformation about the contact structure on the ability to predict disease outbreaks. We base our study on 31 empirical temporal networks and tune the frequencies in errors in the node identities or timestamps of contacts. We find that for both these spreading scenarios, the maximal misprediction of both the outbreak size and time to extinction follows an stretched exponential convergence as a function of the error frequency. We furthermore determine the temporal-network structural factors influencing the parameters of this convergence

BIG DATA APPLICATIONS AND CHALLENGES IN GISCIENCE (CASE STUDIES: NATURAL DISASTER AND PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS MANAGEMENT)

This dissertation examines the application and significance of user-generated big data in Geographic Information Science (GIScience), with a focus on managing natural disasters and public health crises. It explores the role of social media data in understanding human-environment interactions and in informing disaster management and public health strategies. A scalable computational framework will be developed to model extensive unstructured geotagged data from social media, facilitating systematic spatiotemporal data analysis.The research investigates how individuals and communities respond to high-impact events like natural disasters and public health emergencies, employing both qualitative and quantitative methods. In particular, it assesses the impact of socio-economic-demographic characteristics and the digital divide on social media engagement during such crises. In addressing the opioid crisis, the dissertation delves into the spatial dynamics of opioid overdose deaths, utilizing Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression to discern local versus broader-scale determinants. This analysis foregrounds the necessity for targeted public health responses and the importance of localized data in crafting effective interventions, especially within communities that are ethnically diverse and economically disparate. Using Hurricane Irma as a case study, this dissertation analyzes social media activity in Florida in September 2017, leveraging Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression to explore spatial variations in social media discourse, its correlation with damage severity, and the disproportionate impact on racialized communities. It integrates social media data analysis with political-ecological perspectives and spatial analytical techniques to reveal structural inequalities and political power differentials. The dissertation also tackles the dissemination of false information during the COVID-19 pandemic, examining Twitter activity in the United States from April to July 2020. It identifies misinformation patterns, their origins, and their association with the pandemic\u27s incidence rates. Discourse analysis pinpoints tweets that downplay the pandemic\u27s severity or spread disinformation, while spatial modeling investigates the relationship between social media discourse and disease spread. By concentrating on the experiences of racialized communities, this research aims to highlight and address the environmental and social injustices they face. It contributes empirical and methodological insights into effective policy formulation, with an emphasis on equitable responses to public health emergencies and natural disasters. This dissertation not only provides a nuanced understanding of crisis responses but also advances GIScience research by incorporating social media data into both traditional and critical analytical frameworks

Identifying Fake News from the Variables that Governs the Spread of Fake News

Several researchers have attempted to investigate the processes that govern and support the spread of fake news. This paper collates and identifies these variables. This paper then categorises these variables based on three key players that are involved in the process: Users, Content, and Social Networks. The authors conducted an extensive review of the literature and a reflection on the key variables that are involved in the process. The paper has identified a total of twenty-seven variables. Then the paper presents a series of tasks to mitigate or eliminate these variables in a holistic process that could be automated to reduce or eliminate fake news propagation. Finally, the paper suggests further research into testing the method in lab conditions

When Infodemic Meets Epidemic: a Systematic Literature Review

Epidemics and outbreaks present arduous challenges requiring both individual and communal efforts. Social media offer significant amounts of data that can be leveraged for bio-surveillance. They also provide a platform to quickly and efficiently reach a sizeable percentage of the population, hence their potential impact on various aspects of epidemic mitigation. The general objective of this systematic literature review is to provide a methodical overview of the integration of social media in different epidemic-related contexts. Three research questions were conceptualized for this review, resulting in over 10000 publications collected in the first PRISMA stage, 129 of which were selected for inclusion. A thematic method-oriented synthesis was undertaken and identified 5 main themes related to social media enabled epidemic surveillance, misinformation management, and mental health. Findings uncover a need for more robust applications of the lessons learned from epidemic post-mortem documentation. A vast gap exists between retrospective analysis of epidemic management and result integration in prospective studies. Harnessing the full potential of social media in epidemic related tasks requires streamlining the results of epidemic forecasting, public opinion understanding and misinformation propagation, all while keeping abreast of potential mental health implications. Pro-active prevention has thus become vital for epidemic curtailment and containment

Measuring the Interference Effect of Bots in Disseminating Opposing Viewpoints Related to COVID-19 on Twitter Using Epidemiological Modeling

The activity of bots can influence the opinions and behavior of people, especially within the political landscape where hot-button issues are debated. To evaluate the bot presence among the propagation trends of opposing politically-charged viewpoints on Twitter, we collected a comprehensive set of hashtags related to COVID-19. We then applied both the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) and the SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics) epidemiological models to three different dataset states including, total tweets in a dataset, tweets by bots, and tweets by humans. Our results show the ability of both models to model the diffusion of opposing viewpoints on Twitter, with the SEIZ model outperforming the SIR. Additionally, although our results show that both models can model the diffusion of information spread by bots with some difficulty, the SEIZ model outperforms. Our analysis also reveals that the magnitude of the bot-induced diffusion of this type of information varies by subject

Digital Data Sources and Their Impact on People's Health: A Systematic Review of Systematic Reviews

Background: Digital data sources have become ubiquitous in modern culture in the era of digital technology but often tend to be under-researched because of restricted access to data sources due to fragmentation, privacy issues, or industry ownership, and the methodological complexity of demonstrating their measurable impact on human health. Even though new big data sources have shown unprecedented potential for disease diagnosis and outbreak detection, we need to investigate results in the existing literature to gain a comprehensive understanding of their impact on and benefits to human health. / Objective: A systematic review of systematic reviews on identifying digital data sources and their impact area on people's health, including challenges, opportunities, and good practices. Methods: A multidatabase search was performed. Peer-reviewed papers published between January 2010 and November 2020 relevant to digital data sources on health were extracted, assessed, and reviewed. / Results: The 64 reviews are covered by three domains, that is, universal health coverage (UHC), public health emergencies, and healthier populations, defined in WHO's General Programme of Work, 2019-2023, and the European Programme of Work, 2020-2025. In all three categories, social media platforms are the most popular digital data source, accounting for 47% (N = 8), 84% (N = 11), and 76% (N = 26) of studies, respectively. The second most utilized data source are electronic health records (EHRs) (N = 13), followed by websites (N = 7) and mass media (N = 5). In all three categories, the most studied impact of digital data sources is on prevention, management, and intervention of diseases (N = 40), and as a tool, there are also many studies (N = 10) on early warning systems for infectious diseases. However, they could also pose health hazards (N = 13), for instance, by exacerbating mental health issues and promoting smoking and drinking behavior among young people. / Conclusions: The digital data sources presented are essential for collecting and mining information about human health. The key impact of social media, electronic health records, and websites is in the area of infectious diseases and early warning systems, and in the area of personal health, that is, on mental health and smoking and drinking prevention. However, further research is required to address privacy, trust, transparency, and interoperability to leverage the potential of data held in multiple datastores and systems. This study also identified the apparent gap in systematic reviews investigating the novel big data streams, Internet of Things (IoT) data streams, and sensor, mobile, and GPS data researched using artificial intelligence, complex network, and other computer science methods, as in this domain systematic reviews are not common

Essays on the Economics of Vaccination

I examine vaccination behavior during a measles outbreak. By abandoning the rationalexpectations framework, I develop a model of vaccine behavior which recreates empirically observed vaccine hesitancy, as well as vaccination spikes during an outbreak. I use an agent-based model to simulate disease spread and agent behavior in a measles outbreak, in which rational agents minimize their expected costs by choosing their vaccination state. I allow some agents to instead use a heuristic, and others to have misinformation regarding vaccine risks, and finds that both reduce welfare. Including a social network has an ambiguous effect, as using more relevant local data allows agents to better estimate their risk from disease, but the same social network amplifies the impact of misinformation. I then examine a series of regulator interventions, and find that using a social media campaign to change agent’s perceptions of their peers’ views is the most cost-effective intervention. This presents regulators with a new framework with which to understand vaccine hesitancy, and an expanded menu of options to employ in the event of an outbreak

Epidemics on Networks: Reducing Disease Transmission Using Health Emergency Declarations and Peer Communication

Understanding individual decisions in a world where communications and information move instantly via cell phones and the internet, contributes to the development and implementation of policies aimed at stopping or ameliorating the spread of diseases. In this manuscript, the role of official social network perturbations generated by public health officials to slow down or stop a disease outbreak are studied over distinct classes of static social networks. The dynamics are stochastic in nature with individuals (nodes) being assigned fixed levels of education or wealth. Nodes may change their epidemiological status from susceptible, to infected and to recovered. Most importantly, it is assumed that when the prevalence reaches a pre-determined threshold level, P*, information, called awareness in our framework, starts to spread, a process triggered by public health authorities. Information is assumed to spread over the same static network and whether or not one becomes a temporary informer, is a function of his/her level of education or wealth and epidemiological status. Stochastic simulations show that threshold selection P* and the value of the average basic reproduction number impact the final epidemic size differentially. For the Erdos-Renyi and Small-world networks, an optimal choice for P* that minimize the final epidemic size can be identified under some conditions while for Scale-free networks this is not case