Modelling Temporal Diffusion of PV Microgeneration Systems in a Rural Developing Community

An agent-based model (ABM) is developed in Netlogo as a tool for evaluating temporal diffusion of PV-based communal grids in a rural developing community. ABMs model individual entities within a complex system and the rules that govern the interactions of the entities within the system, to capture the overall effect of such interactions. Results show that given various choices, small PV mircogeneration systems would emerge as the prefered source of electrification for many households. Also, with increasing power demands, many household would prefer communal grids to the national utility grid. Furthermore, introduction of favourable government policies in the form of subsidies and mircocredit facilities, coupled with increasing social acceptance, would lead to increased PV installations and correspondingly to increased communal grid connections. Specifically, introduction of a subsidy of $0.15/kWh would result in an increase of 249% in communal grid connections. Increasing the sensing radius from 1 km to 2 km would result in an increase of 118% in communal grid connections

Different storage-focused PV-based mini-grid architectures for rural developing communities

Impacts of grid architectures on temporal diffusion of PV-based communal grids (community owned minigrids or microgrids) in a rural developing community are modelled and simulated using MATLAB/Simulink and a survey-informed agent-based model (ABM) developed in NetLogo. Results show that decentralised control architectures stimulate minigrid formations and connections by allowing easy expansions of the minigrids as each decentralised PV system within a minigrid is treated equally and determines its own real and reactive power, eliminating the need for communication links. This also reduces the cost of implementing such a system; fewer connections are realized with centralised controls as such systems require high speed communication links which make them both difficult to expand and expensive to implement. Results also show that multi-master operation modes lead to more communal grid connections compared to single-master operation modes because in the former, all distributed PV systems within a communal grid have the same rank and can act as masters or can be operated as combinations of master generators (VSIs) and PQ inverters, allowing for more design flexibility and easy connections from potential customers

A heuristic approach to the decision-making process of energy prosumers in a circular economy

Renewable distributed energy and self-consumption are promising and sustainable solutions in the energy-transition scenario for moving toward a circular economy. In this future scheme, prosumers are expected to play a leading role in the forthcoming sustainable energy market, facing new technical, economic, and financial challenges as energy producers at a small scale. In fact, the adoption of photovoltaic (PV) self-consumption systems requires mobilizing capital for investment and their interaction with the market. In this scenario, the aim of this paper was to explore insights into the decision-making process of prosumers to enhance the understanding of self-consumption deployment and to support effective policymaking. This study contributes to the state of the art by defining and classifying determinants of the energy prosumers’ decision-making process and their relevance using a heuristic approach. Potential measuring tools and methods are analyzed through a specific case study of Spanish prosumers

Insentif dalam Perkembangan Panel Surya : Literatur Review

Kebijakan finansial yang diberikan berupa insentif untuk mengurangi biaya ataupun meningkatkan awareness menjadi salah satu pendorong perkembangan panel surya. Pemberian insentif banyak digunakan di berbagai negara dan dipelajari secara terus menerus. Studi ini melakukan tinjauan literatur sistematis untuk menganalisis jenis insentif dan pendekatan yang digunakan dalam penerapannya. Kerangka PRISMA digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi 28 artikel yang relevan dalam insentif panel surya. Hasil analisis menunjukan bahwa pendekatan dilakukan melalui dua metode yaitu metode kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Pendekatan kuantitatif menggunakan pemodelan sistem dan analisis biaya yang mengeksplore dampak jangka waktu dan finansial langsung . Sementara pendekatan kualitatif melalui review dan interview yang mengeksplore pengalaman program insentif sebelumnya. Dari pendekatan ini menghasilkan berbagai macam jenis insentif di antaranya Feed In Tariff (FIT), RnD Investment, Net Metering, Tax Incentive, Green Certificate dan Educational Program. Masing masing insentif memberikan dorongan dari segi sisi yang berbeda. Penelitian lanjutan difokuskan pada proses pendekatan interview dari berbagai jenis insentif guna mendalami kefektifan setiap insentif sebelum diterapkan dilapangan. Pemahaman yang lebih komplek terkait penggunaan insentif panel surya sangat penting sebagai upaya mendorong perkembangan panel surya

An investigation into modelling approaches for industrial symbiosis: a literature review

The aim of this paper is to understand how to model industrial symbiosis networks in order to favour its implementation and provide a framework to guide companies and policy makers towards it. Industrial symbiosis is a clear example of complex adaptive systems and traditional approaches (i.e., Input/Output analysis, Material flow analysis) are not capable to capture these dynamics behaviours. Therefore, the aim of this literature review is to investigate: i) the most used modelling and simulation approaches to analyse industrial symbiosis and ii) their characteristics in terms of simulation methods, interaction mechanisms and simulations software. Findings from our research suggest that a hybrid modelling and simulation approach, based on agent-based and system dynamics, could be an appropriate method for industrial symbiosis analysis and design

Investment determinants in self-consumption facilities: characterization and qualitative analysis in Spain

Self-consumption energy facilities are presented as viable and sustainable solutions in the energy transition scenario in which many countries are immersed. However, they rely on dispersed and private investments in the territory. Given the uneven growth in the number of self-consumption facilities in Europe, the main objective of this study is to identify and measure the investment determinants in self-consumption facilities. To this end, the main influential incentives and barriers are identified through the aggregate analysis of the regulatory framework for self-consumption in several European countries, and the empirical characterization of Spanish facilities as a multiple case study, to define the common features of the investments made. The technical, economic, and financial characterization of real self-consumption facilities in climatic zones of southern Europe is a significant contribution of the present work. There are few samples of this type in the studies published to date, which have mainly been prepared from case studies or statistical data without identifying particular facilities. Cost-related variables have been identified as the most important variables in private investment decisions, and potential influential factors on these variables that could be regulated have been pointed out as relevant. It is also worth highlighting the elaboration of an analytical framework based on this conceptual approach, which has been proven to be useful to depict regulatory scenarios and to compare the positioning for the development of self-consumption systems in different countries. A model that transfers the influence of the determining factors to the deployment of self-consumption under specific regulatory scenarios has been developed and applied to the case of Spain. As a general reflection, to increase the adoption of this kind of technology and encourage consumers to make private investments, policies for renewable energy must consider self-consumption and microgeneration as the main axis, by increasing the availability of energy when necessary. For instance, the promotion of energy storage from these kinds of facilities could receive priority treatment, as well as rewarding the electricity surplus in the interests of security of supply in a period of energy transition towards a new, more sustainable model. Incentive schemes, aids to compensate for the additional costs resulting from the battery storage or easing restrictions in terms of contracted power would foreseeably increase the rates of adoption of the technology, favoring its faster development in terms of research and development and product innovation

A holistic risk management framework for renewable energy investments

Private investments are critical enablers to achieving energy access for over 770 million people worldwide. Despite decreasing capital costs, investments in renewable energy (RE) projects in developing countries are low due to unattractive risk-return profiles. Through understanding key risks drivers and their interactions, actionable insights can be drawn to mitigate investment risks, making energy more accessible. This paper reviews RE risks and methods used for risk assessment and mitigation for developed and developing countries with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa countries (SSA). The review finds that while risk analysis and evaluation mainly employed semi-quantitative multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and system dynamics (SD) methods for developing countries, qualitative methods were used to identify mitigations. The methods assessed technical and economic risks at a minimum, while MCDA and SD methods can assess social, political, and policy risks. The efficacies of mitigations were tested using SD and quantitative methods such as agent-based modelling and Monte Carlo simulation. The paper further introduces a ‘holistic multi-dimensional investor risk management framework’ which can be used to identify actions to improve investment risks in a structured manner. The framework addresses four fundamental limitations observed in the existing literature, recognising that RE risks are complex and involve multidisciplinary perspectives having interactions and feedbacks with other risks, actors, and their actions. This review provides a valuable reference to investors, policymakers, and researchers, providing a catalogue of risks, methods deployed in literature, including a framework to identify impactful actions to improve risk levels

Optimizing the Implementation of Green Technologies Under Climate Change Uncertainty

In this study, we aim to investigate the application of the green technologies (i.e., green roofs (GRs), Photovoltaic (PV) panels, and battery integrated PV systems) under climate change-related uncertainty through three separate, but inherently related studies, and utilize optimization methods to provide new solutions or improve the currently available methodsFirst, we develop a model to evaluate and optimize the joint placement of PV panels and GRs under climate change uncertainty. We consider the efficiency drop of PV panels due to heat, savings from GRs, and the interaction between them. We develop a two-stage stochastic programming model to optimally place PV panels and GRs under climate change uncertainty to maximize the overall profit. We calibrate the model and then conduct a case study on the City of Knoxville, TN.Second, we study the diffusion rate of the green technologies under different climate projections for the City of Knoxville through the integration of simulation and dynamic programming. We aim to investigate the diffusion rates for PV panels and/or GRs under climate change uncertainty in the City of Knoxville, TN. We further investigate the effect of different and evaluate their effects on the diffusion rate. We first present the agent based framework and the mathematical model behind it. Then, we study the effects of different policies on the results and rate of diffusion.Lastly, We aim to study a Lithium-ion battery load connected to a PV system to store the excess generated electricity throughout the day. The stored energy is then used when the PV system is not able to generate electricity due to a lack of direct solar radiation. This study is an attempt to minimize the cost of electricity bill for a medium sized household by maximizing the battery package utilization. We develop a Markov decision processes (MDP) model to capture the stochastic nature of the panels\u27 output due to weather. Due to the minute reduction in the Li-ion battery capacity per day, we have to deal with an excessively large state space. Hence, we utilize reinforcement learning methods (i.e., Q-Learning) to find the optimal policy

Difusão de energia solar em centros urbanos : mudança estrutural e complexidade

Orientador: Prof. Dr. João Basílio Pereima NetoDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Econômico. Defesa : Curitiba, 21/02/2019Inclui referências: p.92-97Resumo: A geracao descentralizada de energia solar tornou-se uma das grandes alternativas energeticas para o mundo e esta em seus estagios iniciais de disseminacao, como uma nova tecnologia disruptiva, com efeitos sobre o desenvolvimento economico e a organizacao dos centros urbanos, gerando mudancas que atingem a forma de organizacao do mercado de energia, a dinamica das cidades e o comportamento das familias que passam a se comportar simultaneamente como consumidores e produtores de energia. Atualmente, existem poucos modelos descentralizados de difusao de geracao solar e muitos dos modelos atuais se concentram em alguns aspectos como: comportamento do consumidor, estabilidade da rede fisica ou minimizacao de perdas. Projetou-se nessa dissertacao um modelo de difusao tecnologica para superar as limitacoes existentes lancando mao de um modelo de simulacoes baseadas em agentes que cria uma cidade de topologia hipotetica que integra varias camadas e adiciona variaveis micro e macroeconomicas que sao importantes para uma compreensao sistemica do problema. As contribuicoes incluem: a) difusao espacialmente que depende da distribuicao topologica residencial de um centro urbano; b) interacao social das familias que interferem na decisao individual do investimento; c) a funcao de investimento micro financiado pelas familias; d) integracao entre a rede eletrica e decisoes economicas; e) formacao de precos endogenos; e finalmente f) Avaliacoes de politicas publicas de mercado, tais como subsidios, precos minimos e investimentos. Os resultados obtidos pela simulacao apresentaram no modelo proposto que a heterogeneidade de renda entre os bairros podem ser um empecilho para a difusao dos paineis. Alem de avaliar que diferentes politicas, precos e subsidios tem impactos na adocao dessa nova tecnologia. Palavras-chave: Difusao Tecnologica, Sistemas Complexos, Modelo Baseado em Agente, Energia Solar, Geracao Distribuida.Abstract: ABSTRACT Decentralized generation of solar power has become one of the great energy alternatives for the world and it is in its initial stages of dissemination as a new disruptive technology, with diverse effects on the economic development and the organization of the urban centers, generating structural changes that reach the energy market organization form, the urban centers dynamics and the familie's behavior which have a simultaneous role as consumer/producer. Currently, there are few decentralized solar generation diffusion models and many of the current models focus on some specific aspects including: consumer behavior, physical network stability, and loss minimization. We designed a technological diffusion model to overcome the existing limitations based on long-term agents in a city of hypothetical topology that integrates several layers and adds several micro and macroeconomic variables that are important for a systemic understanding of the problem. Relevant contributions include: a) Spatially localized diffusion that depends on the topological distribution of residences in an urban center; b) social interaction of families which interferes with the individual investment decision; c) the micro-funded investment function of families and system operators allowing aggregation of the dynamics of public and private investments); d) integration between the physical network (IEEE 33 standard) and economic decisions; e) endogenous price formation; and finally f) Market public policy evaluations, such as subsidies, minimum prices and investments. The results obtained by the simulation presented in the proposed model that the heterogeneity of income among the neighborhoods may be an obstacle to the diffusion of the panels. Besides evaluating that different policies, prices and subsidies have impacts on the adoption of this new technology. Keywords: Technological Diffusion, Solar Energy, Distributed Generation, Complex Systems, Agent-Based Model