Computing Quantiles in Markov Reward Models

Probabilistic model checking mainly concentrates on techniques for reasoning about the probabilities of certain path properties or expected values of certain random variables. For the quantitative system analysis, however, there is also another type of interesting performance measure, namely quantiles. A typical quantile query takes as input a lower probability bound p and a reachability property. The task is then to compute the minimal reward bound r such that with probability at least p the target set will be reached before the accumulated reward exceeds r. Quantiles are well-known from mathematical statistics, but to the best of our knowledge they have not been addressed by the model checking community so far. In this paper, we study the complexity of quantile queries for until properties in discrete-time finite-state Markov decision processes with non-negative rewards on states. We show that qualitative quantile queries can be evaluated in polynomial time and present an exponential algorithm for the evaluation of quantitative quantile queries. For the special case of Markov chains, we show that quantitative quantile queries can be evaluated in time polynomial in the size of the chain and the maximum reward.Comment: 17 pages, 1 figure; typo in example correcte

Process Algebraic Modeling and Analysis of Power-Aware Real-Time Systems

The paper describes a unified formal framework for designing and reasoning about power-constrained, real-time systems. The framework is based on process algebra, a formalism which has been developed to describe and analyze communicating, concurrent systems. The proposed extension allows the modeling of probabilistic resource failures, priorities of resource usages, and power consumption by resources within the same formalism. Thus, it is possible to evaluate alternative power-consumption behaviors and tradeoffs under different real-time schedulers, resource limitations, resource failure probabilities, etc. This paper describes the modeling and analysis techniques, and illustrates them with examples, including a dynamic voltage-scaling algorithm

Analysis of Timed and Long-Run Objectives for Markov Automata

Markov automata (MAs) extend labelled transition systems with random delays and probabilistic branching. Action-labelled transitions are instantaneous and yield a distribution over states, whereas timed transitions impose a random delay governed by an exponential distribution. MAs are thus a nondeterministic variation of continuous-time Markov chains. MAs are compositional and are used to provide a semantics for engineering frameworks such as (dynamic) fault trees, (generalised) stochastic Petri nets, and the Architecture Analysis & Design Language (AADL). This paper considers the quantitative analysis of MAs. We consider three objectives: expected time, long-run average, and timed (interval) reachability. Expected time objectives focus on determining the minimal (or maximal) expected time to reach a set of states. Long-run objectives determine the fraction of time to be in a set of states when considering an infinite time horizon. Timed reachability objectives are about computing the probability to reach a set of states within a given time interval. This paper presents the foundations and details of the algorithms and their correctness proofs. We report on several case studies conducted using a prototypical tool implementation of the algorithms, driven by the MAPA modelling language for efficiently generating MAs.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1305.705

Quantitative Timed Analysis of Interactive Markov Chains

Abstract This paper presents new algorithms and accompanying tool support for analyzing interactive Markov chains (IMCs), a stochastic timed 1 1 2-player game in which delays are exponentially distributed. IMCs are compositional and act as semantic model for engineering for-malisms such as AADL and dynamic fault trees. We provide algorithms for determining the extremal expected time of reaching a set of states, and the long-run average of time spent in a set of states. The prototypical tool Imca supports these algorithms as well as the synthesis of ε-optimal piecewise constant timed policies for timed reachability objectives. Two case studies show the feasibility and scalability of the algorithms.

A tool for model-checking Markov chains

Markov chains are widely used in the context of the performance and reliability modeling of various systems. Model checking of such chains with respect to a given (branching) temporal logic formula has been proposed for both discrete [34, 10] and continuous time settings [7, 12]. In this paper, we describe a prototype model checker for discrete and continuous-time Markov chains, the Erlangen-Twente Markov Chain Checker EÎMC2, where properties are expressed in appropriate extensions of CTL. We illustrate the general benefits of this approach and discuss the structure of the tool. Furthermore, we report on successful applications of the tool to some examples, highlighting lessons learned during the development and application of EÎMC2

Process algebra for performance evaluation

This paper surveys the theoretical developments in the field of stochastic process algebras, process algebras where action occurrences may be subject to a delay that is determined by a random variable. A huge class of resource-sharing systems – like large-scale computers, client–server architectures, networks – can accurately be described using such stochastic specification formalisms. The main emphasis of this paper is the treatment of operational semantics, notions of equivalence, and (sound and complete) axiomatisations of these equivalences for different types of Markovian process algebras, where delays are governed by exponential distributions. Starting from a simple actionless algebra for describing time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains, we consider the integration of actions and random delays both as a single entity (like in known Markovian process algebras like TIPP, PEPA and EMPA) and as separate entities (like in the timed process algebras timed CSP and TCCS). In total we consider four related calculi and investigate their relationship to existing Markovian process algebras. We also briefly indicate how one can profit from the separation of time and actions when incorporating more general, non-Markovian distributions

On Combining Functional Verification and Performance Evaluation using CADP

Considering functional correctness and performance evaluation in a common framework is desirable, both for scientific and economic reasons. In this report, we describe how the CADP toolbox, originally designed for verifying the functional correctness of LOTOS specifications, can also be used for performance evaluation. We illustrate the proposed approach by the performance study of the SCSI-2 bus arbitration protocol