Probabilistic model checking mainly concentrates on techniques for reasoning
about the probabilities of certain path properties or expected values of
certain random variables. For the quantitative system analysis, however, there
is also another type of interesting performance measure, namely quantiles. A
typical quantile query takes as input a lower probability bound p and a
reachability property. The task is then to compute the minimal reward bound r
such that with probability at least p the target set will be reached before the
accumulated reward exceeds r. Quantiles are well-known from mathematical
statistics, but to the best of our knowledge they have not been addressed by
the model checking community so far.
In this paper, we study the complexity of quantile queries for until
properties in discrete-time finite-state Markov decision processes with
non-negative rewards on states. We show that qualitative quantile queries can
be evaluated in polynomial time and present an exponential algorithm for the
evaluation of quantitative quantile queries. For the special case of Markov
chains, we show that quantitative quantile queries can be evaluated in time
polynomial in the size of the chain and the maximum reward.Comment: 17 pages, 1 figure; typo in example correcte
