Temporal constraints on reproduction and growth in a seasonal environment

The variety of life forms is one of the most striking phenomena that have stimulated research in evolutionary biology and ecology over recent decades. The crucial role in defining the most characteristic features of living organisms is dedicated to so-called life history traits (Stearns 1992, Roff 2002). Biological species are characterized by several life history traits such as lifespan, rate of ageing, sexual size dimorphism, but also traits investigated in this work: body size, growth rate, mode of reproduction, and timing and synchrony of breeding. Those traits define functional features of species with consequences going far beyond simple classification. From individual to the ecosystem level, life history traits affect physiology, behaviour but also interactions between species (Davies et al. 2012). Hence, the knowledge about how life history traits evolve is central for understanding important scientific questions but also practical ecological or conservation issues (Allen 2006, Jørgensen et al. 2007, Heino et al. 2015). The great meaning and the potential of our understanding of the sources of evolution of life history traits for understanding ecosystem functioning is the main motivation of my research presented in this thesis. In my thesis I combine theoretical models and empirical work. I aimed at testing hypotheses on the evolution of life history traits in the context of one of the key life history compromises: the evolutionary trade-off between current and future reproduction (Williams 1966). My work was inspired by life histories of species living at a high-latitude Arctic ecosystem of Svalbard archipelago. The empirical part of my thesis, performed to test the predictions of my theoretical research, was conducted in Svalbard in years 2015 2020. The research questions regarding the evolution of body size, growth rate, mode of reproduction and, timing and synchrony of breeding presented in this thesis are oriented around the two subjects described below: the life history trade-off between current and future reproduction under temporal constraints generally and in a high latitude Arctic ecosystem particularly.Doktorgradsavhandlin

Eco-evolutionary dynamics. Experiments in a model system

Understanding the consequences of environmental change on both long- and short-term ecological and evolutionary dynamics is a basic pre-requisite for any effective conservation or management programme but inherently problematic because of the complex interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes. Components of such complexity have been described in isolation or within conceptual models on numerous occasions. What remains lacking are studies that characterise effectively the coupled ecological and evolutionary dynamics, to demonstrate feedback mechanisms that influence both phenotypic change, and its effects on population demography, in organisms with complex life histories. We present a systems-based approach that brings together multiple effects that 'shape' an organism's life history (e.g. direct and delayed life-history consequences of environmental variation) and the resulting eco-evolutionary population dynamics. Using soil mites in microcosms, we characterise ecological, phenotypic and evolutionary dynamics in replicated populations in response to experimental manipulations of environment (e.g. the competitive environment, female age, male quality). Our results demonstrate that population dynamics are complex and are affected by both plastic and evolved responses to past and present environments, and that the emergent population dynamic itself shaped the landscape for natural selection to act on in subsequent generations. Evolutionary and ecological effects on dynamics can therefore be almost impossible to partition, which needs to be considered and appreciated in research, management and conservation. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd

Unexpected patterns of plastic energy allocation in stochastic environments

When environmental conditions vary stochastically, individuals accrue fitness benefits by exhibiting phenotypic plasticity. Such benefits may be counterbalanced by costs of plasticity that increase with the exhibited degree of plasticity. Here we introduce and analyze a general dynamic- programming model describing an individuals optimal energy allocation in a stochastic environment. After maturation, individuals decide repeatedly how to allocate incoming energy between reproduction and maintenance. We investigate the optimal fraction of energy invested into reproduction and the resultant degree of plasticity in dependence on the variability and predictability of the environment. Our analyses reveal unexpected patterns of optimal energy allocation. In environments with very low energy availability, all energy is allocated to reproduction, although this implies that individuals will not survive after reproduction. Above a certain threshold of energy availability, the optimal reproductive investment rapidly decreases to a minimum, and even vanishes entirely when the environment is highly variable. With further improvement of energy availability, optimal reproductive investment gradually increases again, until almost all energy is allocated to reproduction. Costs of plasticity affect this allocation pattern only quantitatively. Our results show that optimal reproductive investment does not increase monotonically with growing energy availability and that small changes in energy availability can lead to major variations in optimal energy allocation. Our results help to unify two apparently opposing predictions from life-history theory, that organisms should increase reproductive investment both with improved environmental conditions and when conditions deteriorate ('terminal investment')

The role of visual adaptation in cichlid fish speciation

D. Shane Wright (1) , Ole Seehausen (2), Ton G.G. Groothuis (1), Martine E. Maan (1) (1) University of Groningen; GELIFES; EGDB(2) Department of Fish Ecology & Evolution, EAWAG Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Biogeochemistry, Kastanienbaum AND Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Aquatic Ecology, University of Bern.In less than 15,000 years, Lake Victoria cichlid fishes have radiated into as many as 500 different species. Ecological and sexual sel ection are thought to contribute to this ongoing speciation process, but genetic differentiation remains low. However, recent work in visual pigment genes, opsins, has shown more diversity. Unlike neighboring Lakes Malawi and Tanganyika, Lake Victoria is highly turbid, resulting in a long wavelength shift in the light spectrum with increasing depth, providing an environmental gradient for exploring divergent coevolution in sensory systems and colour signals via sensory drive. Pundamilia pundamila and Pundamilia nyererei are two sympatric species found at rocky islands across southern portions of Lake Victoria, differing in male colouration and the depth they reside. Previous work has shown species differentiation in colour discrimination, corresponding to divergent female preferences for conspecific male colouration. A mechanistic link between colour vision and preference would provide a rapid route to reproductive isolation between divergently adapting populations. This link is tested by experimental manip ulation of colour vision - raising both species and their hybrids under light conditions mimicking shallow and deep habitats. We quantify the expression of retinal opsins and test behaviours important for speciation: mate choice, habitat preference, and fo raging performance

Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics

Funding: This work was supported by the Isaac Newton Institute (EPSRC grant no. EP/R014604/1). MEK was supported by grants from The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw), grant number 10430022010001, and grant number 91216062, and by the H2020 Project 101003480 (CORESMA). RNT was supported by the UKRI, grant number EP/V053507/1. GR was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) project reference 131_596787873. and by the VERDI project 101045989 funded by the European Union. LP and CO are funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant 202562/Z/16/Z). LP is also supported by the UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (grant number MR/V038613/1) and by The Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence. HBS is funded by the Wellcome Trust and Royal Society (202562/Z/16/Z), and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. DV had support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development of Brazil (CNPq - Refs. 441057/2020-9, 424141/2018-3, 309569/2019-2). FS is supported by the UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (grant number MR/V038613/1). EF is supported by UKRI (Medical Research Council)/Department of Health and Social Care (National Insitute of Health Research) MR/V028618/1. JPG's work was supported by funding from the UK Health Security Agency and the UK Department of Health and Social Care.Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross-disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

What does it take to make integrated care work? A ‘cookbook’ for large-scale deployment of coordinated care and telehealth

The Advancing Care Coordination & Telehealth Deployment (ACT) Programme is the first to explore the organisational and structural processes needed to successfully implement care coordination and telehealth (CC&TH) services on a large scale. A number of insights and conclusions were identified by the ACT programme. These will prove useful and valuable in supporting the large-scale deployment of CC&TH. Targeted at populations of chronic patients and elderly people, these insights and conclusions are a useful benchmark for implementing and exchanging best practices across the EU. Examples are: Perceptions between managers, frontline staff and patients do not always match; Organisational structure does influence the views and experiences of patients: a dedicated contact person is considered both important and helpful; Successful patient adherence happens when staff are engaged; There is a willingness by patients to participate in healthcare programmes; Patients overestimate their level of knowledge and adherence behaviour; The responsibility for adherence must be shared between patients and health care providers; Awareness of the adherence concept is an important factor for adherence promotion; The ability to track the use of resources is a useful feature of a stratification strategy, however, current regional case finding tools are difficult to benchmark and evaluate; Data availability and homogeneity are the biggest challenges when evaluating the performance of the programmes