How do the global stock markets influence one another? Evidence from finance big data and Granger causality directed network

The recent financial network analysis approach reveals that the topologies of financial markets have an important influence on market dynamics. However, the majority of existing Finance Big Data networks are built as undirected networks without information on the influence directions among prices. Rather than understanding the correlations, this research applies the Granger causality test to build the Granger Causality Directed Network for 33 global major stock market indices. The paper further analyzes how the markets influence one another by investigating the directed edges in the different filtered networks. The network topology that evolves in different market periods is analyzed via a sliding window approach and Finance Big Data visualization. By quantifying the influences of market indices, 33 global major stock markets from the Granger causality network are ranked in comparison with the result based on PageRank centrality algorithm. Results reveal that the ranking lists are similar in both approaches where the U.S. indices dominate the top position followed by other American, European, and Asian indices. The lead-lag analysis reveals that there is lag effects among the global indices. The result sheds new insights on the influences among global stock markets with implications for trading strategy design, global portfolio management, risk management, and markets regulation

Network Analysis of Economic Sectors: An Exploration of Structure using the HITS Algorithm.

This research aimed to investigate the structure of the national economic networks in Japan, Thailand, and Vietnam, at different stages of stock exchange development. Daily return data from the Refinitiv database were used, along with excess returns calculated by subtracting short-term government bond yields from index returns in each country. Key influencers and those heavily impacted by the economic system, were identified by applying Granger causality analysis and the HITS algorithm to nine industry indices. The results showed that the industrial sector (INDUS) significantly influenced other sectors in Japan and Thailand and that the economic sectors most affected by other industries varied by country. These findings have implications for policymakers seeking to manage and mitigate potential economic impacts from influential industrial sectors and identify the industry groups most susceptible to potential crises. This study contributes to the existing literature on the topic, enhancing understanding of economic networks, while further research is still needed in different countries and at various stages of economic development to fully comprehend the intricacies of economic networks

Synergistic information transfer in the global system of financial markets

Uncovering dynamic information flow between stock market indices has been the topic of several studies which exploited the notion of transfer entropy or Granger causality, its linear version. The output of the transfer entropy approach is a directed weighted graph measuring the information about the future state of each target provided by the knowledge of the state of each driving stock market index. In order to go beyond the pairwise description of the information flow, thus looking at higher order informational circuits, here we apply the partial information decomposition to triplets consisting of a pair of driving markets (belonging to America or Europe) and a target market in Asia. Our analysis, on daily data recorded during the years 2000 to 2019, allows the identification of the synergistic information that a pair of drivers carry about the target. By studying the influence of the closing returns of drivers on the subsequent overnight changes of target indexes, we find that (i) Korea, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Singapore are, in order, the most influenced Asian markets; (ii) US indices SP500 and Russell are the strongest drivers with respect to the bivariate Granger causality; and (iii) concerning higher order effects, pairs of European and American stock market indices play a major role as the most synergetic three-variables circuits. Our results show that the Synergy, a proxy of higher order predictive information flow rooted in information theory, provides details that are complementary to those obtained from bivariate and global Granger causality, and can thus be used to get a better characterization of the global financial system

NETpred: Network-based modeling and prediction of multiple connected market indices

Market prediction plays a major role in supporting financial decisions. An emerging approach in this domain is to use graphical modeling and analysis to for prediction of next market index fluctuations. One important question in this domain is how to construct an appropriate graphical model of the data that can be effectively used by a semi-supervised GNN to predict index fluctuations. In this paper, we introduce a framework called NETpred that generates a novel heterogeneous graph representing multiple related indices and their stocks by using several stock-stock and stock-index relation measures. It then thoroughly selects a diverse set of representative nodes that cover different parts of the state space and whose price movements are accurately predictable. By assigning initial predicted labels to such a set of nodes, NETpred makes sure that the subsequent GCN model can be successfully trained using a semi-supervised learning process. The resulting model is then used to predict the stock labels which are finally aggregated to infer the labels for all the index nodes in the graph. Our comprehensive set of experiments shows that NETpred improves the performance of the state-of-the-art baselines by 3%-5% in terms of F-score measure on different well-known data sets

Current landscape and influence of big data on finance

Big data is one of the most recent business and technical issues in the age of technology. Hundreds of millions of events occur every day. The financial field is deeply involved in the calculation of big data events. As a result, hundreds of millions of financial transactions occur in the financial world each day. Therefore, financial practitioners and analysts consider it an emerging issue of the data management and analytics of different financial products and services. Also, big data has significant impacts on financial products and services. Therefore, identifying the financial issues where big data has a significant influence is also an important issue to explore with the influences. Based on these concepts, the objective of this paper was to show the current landscape of finance dealing with big data, and also to show how big data influences different financial sectors, more specifically, its impact on financial markets, financial institutions, and the relationship with internet finance, financial management, internet credit service companies, fraud detection, risk analysis, financial application management, and so on. The connection between big data and financial-related components will be revealed in an exploratory literature review of secondary data sources. Since big data in the financial field is an extremely new concept, future research directions will be pointed out at the end of this study

Identifying big data’s opportunities, challenges, and implications in finance

One of the latest innovations in business and technology is the use of big data, as daily data is generated by billions of events. The big data issue is now considered in the accountants and finance professionals’ field as one of the most important sources for the analysis of financial products and services. This study is very innovative, aiming our research to identify the opportunities, challenges, and implications of big data in the finance area. It is our purpose to find competitive advantages in extents on which big data brings visible benefits, also pointing out the challenges that a company may face in this field, as are the cases of customers' data security or customer satisfaction processes. The identification of this kind of dynamics allows us to conclude about the big advantages of big data on these analyses and big data’s deep impact on finance. Very particularly, the big data is now commonly used by financial institutions and banks for analytical purposes in financial markets contexts. We have conducted an exploratory survey of the existing literature to highlight such connections. In the last part of our study, we also propose some directions for future research.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Advanced analytical methods for fraud detection: a systematic literature review

The developments of the digital era demand new ways of producing goods and rendering services. This fast-paced evolution in the companies implies a new approach from the auditors, who must keep up with the constant transformation. With the dynamic dimensions of data, it is important to seize the opportunity to add value to the companies. The need to apply more robust methods to detect fraud is evident. In this thesis the use of advanced analytical methods for fraud detection will be investigated, through the analysis of the existent literature on this topic. Both a systematic review of the literature and a bibliometric approach will be applied to the most appropriate database to measure the scientific production and current trends. This study intends to contribute to the academic research that have been conducted, in order to centralize the existing information on this topic