Multidimensional prognostics for rotating machinery: A review

open access articleDetermining prognosis for rotating machinery could potentially reduce maintenance costs and improve safety and avail- ability. Complex rotating machines are usually equipped with multiple sensors, which enable the development of multidi- mensional prognostic models. By considering the possible synergy among different sensor signals, multivariate models may provide more accurate prognosis than those using single-source information. Consequently, numerous research papers focusing on the theoretical considerations and practical implementations of multivariate prognostic models have been published in the last decade. However, only a limited number of review papers have been written on the subject. This article focuses on multidimensional prognostic models that have been applied to predict the failures of rotating machinery with multiple sensors. The theory and basic functioning of these techniques, their relative merits and draw- backs and how these models have been used to predict the remnant life of a machine are discussed in detail. Furthermore, this article summarizes the rotating machines to which these models have been applied and discusses future research challenges. The authors also provide seven evaluation criteria that can be used to compare the reviewed techniques. By reviewing the models reported in the literature, this article provides a guide for researchers considering prognosis options for multi-sensor rotating equipment

CNC Machine Tool's wear diagnostic and prognostic by using dynamic bayesian networks.

International audienceThe failure of critical components in industrial systems may have negative consequences on the availability, the productivity, the security and the environment. To avoid such situations, the health condition of the physical system, and particularly of its critical components, can be constantly assessed by using the monitoring data to perform on-line system diagnostics and prognostics. The present paper is a contribution on the assessment of the health condition of a Computer Numerical Control (CNC) tool machine and the estimation of its Remaining Useful Life (RUL). The proposed method relies on two main phases: an off-line phase and an on-line phase. During the first phase, the raw data provided by the sensors are processed to extract reliable features. These latter are used as inputs of learning algorithms in order to generate the models that represent the wear's behavior of the cutting tool. Then, in the second phase, which is an assessment one, the constructed models are exploited to identify the tool's current health state, predict its RUL and the associated confidence bounds. The proposed method is applied on a benchmark of condition monitoring data gathered during several cuts of a CNC tool. Simulation results are obtained and discussed at the end of the paper

International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management, ISSN 2153-2648, 2017 019 1 A Condition Based Maintenance Implementation for an Automated People Mover Gearbox

Data-driven condition-based maintenance (CBM) can be an effective predictive maintenance strategy for components within complex systems with unknown dynamics, nonstationary vibration signatures or a lack of historical failure data. CBM strategies allow operators to maintain components based on their condition in lieu of traditional alternatives such as preventive or corrective strategies. In this paper, the authors present an outline of the CBM program and a field pilot study being conducted on the gearbox, a critical component in an automated cable-driven people mover (APM) system at Toronto’s Pearson airport. This CBM program utilizes a paired server-client “two-tier” configuration for fault detection and prognosis. At the first level, fault detection is performed in real-time using vibration data collected from accelerometers mounted on the APM gearbox. Time-domain condition indicators are extracted from the signals to establish the baseline condition of the system to detect faults in real-time. All tier one tasks are handled autonomously using a controller located on-site. In the second level pertaining to prognostics, these condition indicators are utilized for degradation modeling and subsequent remaining useful life (RUL) estimation using random coefficient and stochastic degradation models. Parameter estimation is undertaken using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Degradation parameters and the RUL model are updated in a feedback loop using the collected degradation data. While the case study presented will primarily focus on a cable-driven APM gearbox, the underlying theory and the tools developed to undertake diagnostics and prognostics tasks are broadly applicable to a wide range of other civil and industrial applications

Condition-based maintenance—an extensive literature review

This paper presents an extensive literature review on the field of condition-based maintenance (CBM). The paper encompasses over 4000 contributions, analysed through bibliometric indicators and meta-analysis techniques. The review adopts Factor Analysis as a dimensionality reduction, concerning the metric of the co-citations of the papers. Four main research areas have been identified, able to delineate the research field synthetically, from theoretical foundations of CBM; (i) towards more specific implementation strategies (ii) and then specifically focusing on operational aspects related to (iii) inspection and replacement and (iv) prognosis. The data-driven bibliometric results have been combined with an interpretative research to extract both core and detailed concepts related to CBM. This combined analysis allows a critical reflection on the field and the extraction of potential future research directions

Multidimensional prognostics for rotating machinery: A review

Determining prognosis for rotating machinery could potentially reduce maintenance costs and improve safety and availability. Complex rotating machines are usually equipped with multiple sensors, which enable the development of multidimensional prognostic models. By considering the possible synergy among different sensor signals, multivariate models may provide more accurate prognosis than those using single-source information. Consequently, numerous research papers focusing on the theoretical considerations and practical implementations of multivariate prognostic models have been published in the last decade. However, only a limited number of review papers have been written on the subject. This article focuses on multidimensional prognostic models that have been applied to predict the failures of rotating machinery with multiple sensors. The theory and basic functioning of these techniques, their relative merits and drawbacks and how these models have been used to predict the remnant life of a machine are discussed in detail. Furthermore, this article summarizes the rotating machines to which these models have been applied and discusses future research challenges. The authors also provide seven evaluation criteria that can be used to compare the reviewed techniques. By reviewing the models reported in the literature, this article provides a guide for researchers considering prognosis options for multi-sensor rotating equipment

DEVELOPMENT OF DIAGNOSTIC AND PROGNOSTIC METHODOLOGIES FOR ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS BASED ON MAHALANOBIS DISTANCE

Diagnostic and prognostic capabilities are one aspect of the many interrelated and complementary functions in the field of Prognostic and Health Management (PHM). These capabilities are sought after by industries in order to provide maximum operational availability of their products, maximum usage life, minimum periodic maintenance inspections, lower inventory cost, accurate tracking of part life, and no false alarms. Several challenges associated with the development and implementation of these capabilities are the consideration of a system's dynamic behavior under various operating environments; complex system architecture where the components that form the overall system have complex interactions with each other with feed-forward and feedback loops of instructions; the unavailability of failure precursors; unseen events; and the absence of unique mathematical techniques that can address fault and failure events in various multivariate systems. The Mahalanobis distance methodology distinguishes multivariable data groups in a multivariate system by a univariate distance measure calculated from the normalized value of performance parameters and their correlation coefficients. The Mahalanobis distance measure does not suffer from the scaling effect--a situation where the variability of one parameter masks the variability of another parameter, which happens when the measurement ranges or scales of two parameters are different. A literature review showed that the Mahalanobis distance has been used for classification purposes. In this thesis, the Mahalanobis distance measure is utilized for fault detection, fault isolation, degradation identification, and prognostics. For fault detection, a probabilistic approach is developed to establish threshold Mahalanobis distance, such that presence of a fault in a product can be identified and the product can be classified as healthy or unhealthy. A technique is presented to construct a control chart for Mahalanobis distance for detecting trends and biasness in system health or performance. An error function is defined to establish fault-specific threshold Mahalanobis distance. A fault isolation approach is developed to isolate faults by identifying parameters that are associated with that fault. This approach utilizes the design-of-experiment concept for calculating residual Mahalanobis distance for each parameter (i.e., the contribution of each parameter to a system's health determination). An expected contribution range for each parameter estimated from the distribution of residual Mahalanobis distance is used to isolate the parameters that are responsible for a system's anomalous behavior. A methodology to detect degradation in a system's health using a health indicator is developed. The health indicator is defined as the weighted sum of a histogram bin's fractional contribution. The histogram's optimal bin width is determined from the number of data points in a moving window. This moving window approach is utilized for progressive estimation of the health indicator over time. The health indicator is compared with a threshold value defined from the system's healthy data to indicate the system's health or performance degradation. A symbolic time series-based health assessment approach is developed. Prognostic measures are defined for detecting anomalies in a product and predicting a product's time and probability of approaching a faulty condition. These measures are computed from a hidden Markov model developed from the symbolic representation of product dynamics. The symbolic representation of a product's dynamics is obtained by representing a Mahalanobis distance time series in symbolic form. Case studies were performed to demonstrate the capability of the proposed methodology for real time health monitoring. Notebook computers were exposed to a set of environmental conditions representative of the extremes of their life cycle profiles. The performance parameters were monitored in situ during the experiments, and the resulting data were used as a training dataset. The dataset was also used to identify specific parameter behavior, estimate correlation among parameters, and extract features for defining a healthy baseline. Field-returned computer data and data corresponding to artificially injected faults in computers were used as test data

Increasing the robustness of autonomous systems to hardware degradation using machine learning

Autonomous systems perform predetermined tasks (missions) with minimum supervision. In most applications, the state of the world changes with time. Sensors are employed to measure part or whole of the world’s state. However, sensors often fail amidst operation; feeding as such decision-making with wrong information about the world. Moreover, hardware degradation may alter dynamic behaviour, and subsequently the capabilities, of an autonomous system; rendering the original mission infeasible. This thesis applies machine learning to yield powerful and robust tools that can facilitate autonomy in modern systems. Incremental kernel regression is used for dynamic modelling. Algorithms of this sort are easy to train and are highly adaptive. Adaptivity allows for model adjustments, whenever the environment of operation changes. Bayesian reasoning provides a rigorous framework for addressing uncertainty. Moreover, using Bayesian Networks, complex inference regarding hardware degradation can be answered. Specifically, adaptive modelling is combined with Bayesian reasoning to yield recursive estimation algorithms that are robust to sensor failures. Two solutions are presented by extending existing recursive estimation algorithms from the robotics literature. The algorithms are deployed on an underwater vehicle and the performance is assessed in real-world experiments. A comparison against standard filters is also provided. Next, the previous algorithms are extended to consider sensor and actuator failures jointly. An algorithm that can detect thruster failures in an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle has been developed. Moreover, the algorithm adapts the dynamic model online to compensate for the detected fault. The performance of this algorithm was also tested in a real-world application. One step further than hardware fault detection, prognostics predict how much longer can a particular hardware component operate normally. Ubiquitous sensors in modern systems render data-driven prognostics a viable solution. However, training is based on skewed datasets; datasets where the samples from the faulty region of operation are much fewer than the ones from the healthy region of operation. This thesis presents a prognostic algorithm that tackles the problem of imbalanced (skewed) datasets

Contribution au pronostic de défaillances guidé par des données

Ce mémoire d’Habilitation à Diriger des Recherche (HDR) présente, dans la première partie, une synthèse de mes travaux d’enseignement et de recherche réalisés au sein de l’École Nationale Supérieure de Mécanique et des Microtechniques (ENSMM) et de l’Institut FEMTO-ST. Ces travaux s’inscrivent dans la thématique du PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) et concernent le développement d’une approche intégrée de pronostic de défaillances guidée par des données. L’approche proposée repose sur l’acquisition de données représentatives des dégradations de systèmes physiques, l’extraction de caractéristiques pertinentes et la construction d’indicateurs de santé, la modélisation des dégradations, l’évaluation de l’état de santé et la prédiction de durées de fonctionnement avant défaillances (RUL : Remaining Useful Life). Elle fait appel à deux familles d’outils : d’un côté des outils probabilistes/stochastiques, tels que les réseaux Bayésiens dynamiques, et de l’autre côté les modèles de régression non linéaires, notamment les machines à vecteurs de support pour la régression. La seconde partie du mémoire présente le projet de recherche autour du PHM de systèmes complexes et de MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems), avec une orientation vers l’approche de pronostic hybride en combinant l’approche guidée par des données et l’approche basée sur des modèles physiques.This Habilitation manuscript presents, in the first part, a synthesis of my teaching and research works achieved at the National Institute of Mechanics and Microtechnologies (ENSMM) and at FEMTO-ST Institute. These works are within the topic of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) and concern the development of an integrated data-driven failure prognostic approach. The proposed approach relies on acquisition of data which are representative of systems degradations, extraction of relevant features and construction of health indicators, degradation modeling, health assessment and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. This approach uses two groups of tools: probabilistic/stochastic tools, such as dynamic Bayesian networks, from one hand, and nonlinear regression models such as support vector machine for regression and Gaussian process regression, from the other hand. The second part of the manuscript presents the research project related to PHM of complex systems and MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems), with an orientation towards a hybrid prognostic approach by considering both model-based and data-driven approaches

Unsupervised Methods for Condition-Based Maintenance in Non-Stationary Operating Conditions

Maintenance and operation of modern dynamic engineering systems requires the use of robust maintenance strategies that are reliable under uncertainty. One such strategy is condition-based maintenance (CBM), in which maintenance actions are determined based on the current health of the system. The CBM framework integrates fault detection and forecasting in the form of degradation modeling to provide real-time reliability, as well as valuable insight towards the future health of the system. Coupled with a modern information platform such as Internet-of-Things (IoT), CBM can deliver these critical functionalities at scale. The increasingly complex design and operation of engineering systems has introduced novel problems to CBM. Characteristics of these systems - such as the unavailability of historical data, or highly dynamic operating behaviour - has rendered many existing solutions infeasible. These problems have motivated the development of new and self-sufficient - or in other words - unsupervised CBM solutions. The issue, however, is that many of the necessary methods required by such frameworks have yet to be proposed within the literature. Key gaps pertaining to the lack of suitable unsupervised approaches for the pre-processing of non-stationary vibration signals, parameter estimation for fault detection, and degradation threshold estimation, need to be addressed in order to achieve an effective implementation. The main objective of this thesis is to propose set of three novel approaches to address each of the aforementioned knowledge gaps. A non-parametric pre-processing and spectral analysis approach, termed spectral mean shift clustering (S-MSC) - which applies mean shift clustering (MSC) to the short time Fourier transform (STFT) power spectrum for simultaneous de-noising and extraction of time-varying harmonic components - is proposed for the autonomous analysis of non-stationary vibration signals. A second pre-processing approach, termed Gaussian mixture model operating state decomposition (GMM-OSD) - which uses GMMs to cluster multi-modal vibration signals by their respective, unknown operating states - is proposed to address multi-modal non-stationarity. Applied in conjunction with S-MSC, these two approaches form a robust and unsupervised pre-processing framework tailored to the types of signals found in modern engineering systems. The final approach proposed in this thesis is a degradation detection and fault prediction framework, termed the Bayesian one class support vector machine (B-OCSVM), which tackles the key knowledge gaps pertaining to unsupervised parameter and degradation threshold estimation by re-framing the traditional fault detection and degradation modeling problem as a degradation detection and fault prediction problem. Validation of the three aforementioned approaches is performed across a wide range of machinery vibration data sets and applications, including data obtained from two full-scale field pilots located at Toronto Pearson International Airport. The first of which is located on the gearbox of the LINK Automated People Mover (APM) train at Toronto Pearson International Airport; and, the second which is located on a subset of passenger boarding tunnel pre-conditioned air units (PCA) in Terminal 1 of Pearson airport. Results from validation found that the proposed pre-processing approaches and combined pre-processing framework provides a robust and computationally efficient and robust methodology for the analysis of non-stationary vibration signals in unsupervised CBM. Validation of the B-OCSVM framework showed that the proposed parameter estimation approaches enables the earlier detection of the degradation process compared to existing approaches, and the proposed degradation threshold provides a reasonable estimate of the fault manifestation point. Holistically, the approaches proposed in thesis provide a crucial step forward towards the effective implementation of unsupervised CBM in complex, modern engineering systems