Application of Sigma Point Particle Filter Method for Passive State Estimation in Underwater

Bearings-only tracking (BOT) plays a vital role in underwater surveillance. In BOT, measurement is tangentially related to state of the system. This measurement is also corrupted with noise due to turbulent underwater environment. Hence state estimation process using BOT becomes nonlinear. This necessitates the use of nonlinear filtering algorithms in place of traditional linear filters like Kalman filter. In general, these nonlinear filters utilize the assumption of measurements being corrupted with Gaussian noise for state estimation. The measurements cannot be always corrupted with Gaussian noise because of the highly unstable sea environment. These problems indicate the necessity for development of nonlinear non-Gaussian filters like particle filter (PF) for underwater tracking. However, PF suffers from severe problems like sample degeneracy and impoverishment and also it is tedious to select an appropriate technique for resampling. To overcome these difficulties in PF implementation, the strategy of combining PF with another filter like unscented Kalman filter is proposed for target’s state estimation. The detailed analysis of the same is presented in comparison with other particle filter combinations using the simulation results obtained in Matlab

Time-Synchronized State Estimation Using Graph Neural Networks in Presence of Topology Changes

Recently, there has been a major emphasis on developing data-driven approaches involving machine learning (ML) for high-speed static state estimation (SE) in power systems. The emphasis stems from the ability of ML to overcome difficulties associated with model-based approaches, such as the handling of non-Gaussian measurement noise. However, topology changes pose a stiff challenge for performing ML-based SE because the training and test environments become different when such changes occur. This paper overcomes this challenge by formulating a graph neural network-based time-synchronized state estimator that considers the physical connections of the power system during the training itself. The superiority of the proposed approach over the model-based linear state estimator in the presence of non-Gaussian measurement noise and a regular deep neural network-based state estimator in the presence of topology changes is demonstrated for the IEEE 118-bus system.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Novel Computational Methods for State Space Filtering

The state-space formulation for time-dependent models has been long used invarious applications in science and engineering. While the classical Kalman filter(KF) provides optimal posterior estimation under linear Gaussian models, filteringin nonlinear and non-Gaussian environments remains challenging.Based on the Monte Carlo approximation, the classical particle filter (PF) can providemore precise estimation under nonlinear non-Gaussian models. However, it suffers fromparticle degeneracy. Drawing from optimal transport theory, the stochastic map filter(SMF) accommodates a solution to this problem, but its performance is influenced bythe limited flexibility of nonlinear map parameterisation. To account for these issues,a hybrid particle-stochastic map filter (PSMF) is first proposed in this thesis, wherethe two parts of the split likelihood are assimilated by the PF and SMF, respectively.Systematic resampling and smoothing are employed to alleviate the particle degeneracycaused by the PF. Furthermore, two PSMF variants based on the linear and nonlinearmaps (PSMF-L and PSMF-NL) are proposed, and their filtering performance is comparedwith various benchmark filters under different nonlinear non-Gaussian models.Although achieving accurate filtering results, the particle-based filters require expensive computations because of the large number of samples involved. Instead, robustKalman filters (RKFs) provide efficient solutions for the linear models with heavy-tailednoise, by adopting the recursive estimation framework of the KF. To exploit the stochasticcharacteristics of the noise, the use of heavy-tailed distributions which can fit variouspractical noises constitutes a viable solution. Hence, this thesis also introduces a novelRKF framework, RKF-SGαS, where the signal noise is assumed to be Gaussian and theheavy-tailed measurement noise is modelled by the sub-Gaussian α-stable (SGαS) distribution. The corresponding joint posterior distribution of the state vector and auxiliaryrandom variables is estimated by the variational Bayesian (VB) approach. Four differentminimum mean square error (MMSE) estimators of the scale function are presented.Besides, the RKF-SGαS is compared with the state-of-the-art RKFs under three kinds ofheavy-tailed measurement noises, and the simulation results demonstrate its estimationaccuracy and efficiency.One notable limitation of the proposed RKF-SGαS is its reliance on precise modelparameters, and substantial model errors can potentially impede its filtering performance. Therefore, this thesis also introduces a data-driven RKF method, referred to asRKFnet, which combines the conventional RKF framework with a deep learning technique. An unsupervised scheduled sampling technique (USS) is proposed to improve theistability of the training process. Furthermore, the advantages of the proposed RKFnetare quantified with respect to various traditional RKFs

Statistical Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter for Incorporating Non-Gaussian Uncertainties

The tracking of space objects requires frequent and accurate monitoring for collision avoidance. As even collision events with very low probability are important, accurate prediction of collisions require the representation of the full probability density function (PDF) of the random orbit state. Through representing the full PDF of the orbit state for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance, we can take advantage of the statistical information present in the heavy tailed distributions, more accurately representing the orbit states with low probability. The classical methods of orbit determination (i.e. Kalman Filter and its derivatives) provide state estimates based on only the second moments of the state and measurement errors that are captured by assuming a Gaussian distribution. Although the measurement errors can be accurately assumed to have a Gaussian distribution, errors with a non-Gaussian distribution could arise during propagation between observations. Moreover, unmodeled dynamics in the orbit model could introduce non-Gaussian errors into the process noise. A Particle Filter (PF) is proposed as a nonlinear filtering technique that is capable of propagating and estimating a more complete representation of the state distribution as an accurate approximation of a full PDF. The PF uses Monte Carlo runs to generate particles that approximate the full PDF representation. The PF is applied in the estimation and propagation of a highly eccentric orbit and the results are compared to the Extended Kalman Filter and Splitting Gaussian Mixture algorithms to demonstrate its proficiency

Outlier-robust Schmidt-Kalman filter using variational inference

The Schmidt-Kalman filter (SKF) achieves filtering consistency in the presence of biases in system dynamic and measurement models through accounting for their impacts when updating the state estimate and covariance. However, the performance of the SKF may break down when the measurements are subject to non-Gaussian and heavy-tail noise. To address this, we impose the Wishart prior distribution on the precision matrix of measurement noise, such that the measurement likelihood now has heavier tails than the Gaussian distribution to deal with the potential occurrence of outliers. Variational inference is invoked to establish analytically tractable methods for computing the posterior of the system state, system biases, and the measurement noise precision matrix. The principle of the SKF considers the effect of system biases but does not actively estimate them when two variants of outlier-robust SKFs are incorporated. We evaluate their performance in terms of estimation accuracy and filtering consistency using simulations and real-world data. Promising results are obtained

LQG for Constrained Linear Systems: Indirect Feedback Stochastic MPC with Kalman Filtering

We present an output feedback stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) approach for linear systems subject to Gaussian disturbances and measurement noise and probabilistic constraints on system states and inputs. The presented approach combines a linear Kalman filter for state estimation with an indirect feedback SMPC, which is initialized with a predicted nominal state, while feedback of the current state estimate enters through the objective of the SMPC problem. For this combination, we establish recursive feasibility of the SMPC problem due to the chosen initialization, and closed-loop chance constraint satisfaction thanks to an appropriate tightening of the constraints in the SMPC problem also considering the state estimation uncertainty. Additionally, we show that for specific design choices in the SMPC problem, the unconstrained linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) solution is recovered if it is feasible for a given initial condition and the considered constraints. We demonstrate this fact for a numerical example, and show that the resulting output feedback controller can provide non-conservative constraint satisfaction.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figur

Энергосберегающее устройство нагружения резервных электрогенераторов

The Kalman filter computes the minimum variance state estimate as a linear function of measurements in the case of a linear model with Gaussian noise processes. There are plenty of examples of non-linear estimators that outperform the Kalman filter when the noise processes deviate from Gaussianity, for instance in target tracking with occasionally maneuvering targets. Here we present, in a preliminary study, a detailed analysis of the well-known parameter estimation problem. This time with Gaussian mixture measurement noise. We compute the discrepancy of the best linear unbiased estimator BLUE and the Cramer-Rao lower bound, and based on this conclude when computationally intensive Kalman filter banks or particle filters may be used to improve performance