Bayesian Inference for Predicting the Monetization Percentage in Free-to-Play Games

Free-to-play has become one of the most popular monetization models, and as a consequence game developers need to get the players to purchase in the game instead of getting players to buy the game. Game analytics and player monetization prediction are important parts in estimating the profitability of a free-to-play game. In this paper, we concentrate on predicting the fraction of monetizing players among all players. Our method is based on a survival analysis mixture cure model, and can be applied to unlabeled data collected from any free-to-play game. We formulate a statistical model and use the Expectation Maximization algorithm to solve the latent monetization percentage and the monetization rate. The original method is modified by using Bayesian inference, and the results of the versions are compared. The method can be applied as a preliminary profitability study in situations where there is no extensive historical game data available, such as game and business development scenarios that need to utilize real time analytics. Index Terms—Bayesian Inference, Free-to-play, Monetization, Survival Analysis</p

The Fish Tank Model for Mobile Game Publishing Business Performance Evaluation

Business intelligence has been applied in the area of game development research for many years. However, few systematic research efforts are focusing on the game publishing side, especially for the mobile game publishing business. We aim to identify and remedy the shortcomings of the existing ARM funnel model for free-to-play mobile game analytics by introducing a new model, the Fish Tank Model, which combines the analysis of players’ behavior with in-game system data to drive the whole process of mobile game publishing. Based on the new model, we also bring and create relevant metrics for effectively measuring the business performance of mobile game publishing. Our main contributions are a survey of business intelligence used in game research and an analysis to reveal the insufficiency of an existing model for game publishing. Finally, we discuss business requirements for mobile game publishing and propose a brand-new model which better suits the free-to-play mobile game publishing business performance evaluation

Designing Game Analytics For A City-Builder Game

The video game industry continues to grow. Competition is tough as games become more and more popular and easier for the users to get, thanks to digital distribution and social media platforms that support games. Thanks to the readily available internet connections and games using them, data of player behaviour can be acquired. This is where game analytics come in. What sort of player actions provide meaningful information that can be used to iterate the game? Typically game analytics is applied to multiplayer games or free-to-play social network games, not to single player games. This case study focuses on the design of game analytics for Cities: Skylines (Paradox, 2015), a modern city-building sandbox game. The writer of the thesis is the lead designer of Cities: Skylines, so the perspective to the work is from inside the games industry and on how metrics are designed alongside game design. The results of this study show that some practices used with free-to-play game’s analytics can be used with more classic games, but that sandbox simulation games are very challenging for game analysis. This is due to how sandbox games strive to support player self-expression and cater to many different playing styles

App Review Analytics Of Free Games Listed On Google Play

Smartphones have become popular in recent years; in turn, the number of application developers and publishers has grown rapidly. To understand users’ app preferences, many platforms such as Google Play provide different mechanism that allows users to rank apps. However, more detailed insights on user’s feelings, experiences, critiques, suggestions, or preferences are missing due to a lack of additional written comments. This research attempts to investigate the review analytics of Android games listed on Google Play using a proposed text analytic approach to extract all user reviews from game apps in Chinese. A total of 207,048 reviews of 4,268 free games from February to March 2013 are extracted and analyzed according to various metrics including game type and game attribute. The findings indicate there is high dependency between users’ gender and game type, males and females have differing opinions on game attributes. In particular, users of different game types prefer different game attributes. The results reveal product usage insights, as well as best practices for developers

Measuring Greatness in the NBA

The “greatest player ever” debate stems from the controversy of how to measure a player’s effectiveness and contributions. Some analysts focus their arguments on a player’s statistics and advanced analytics. Another analyst may argue that awards play the largest role in a player’s worth to a team. Even though the tendency is to focus on one category of comparison, a player’s career is too complex to use only one category to rank players. In basketball, there are also so many exceptions in these points of comparison due to the team aspect of the sport. These factors all play a role in determining who is the greatest NBA player of all-time

Integration of Forecasting, Scheduling, Machine Learning, and Efficiency Improvement Methods into the Sport Management Industry

Sport management is a complicated and economically impactful industry and involves many crucial decisions: such as which players to retain or release, how many concession vendors to add, how many fans to expect, what teams to schedule, and many others are made each offseason and changed frequently. The task of making such decisions effectively is difficult, but the process can be made easier using methods of industrial and systems engineering (ISE). Integrating methods such as forecasting, scheduling, machine learning, and efficiency improvement from ISE can be revolutionary in helping sports organizations and franchises be consistently successful. Research shows areas including player evaluation, analytics, fan attendance, stadium design, accurate scheduling, play prediction, player development, prevention of cheating, and others can be improved when ISE methods are used to target inefficient or wasteful areas

Project sanitarium:playing tuberculosis to its end game

Interdisciplinary and collaborative projects between industry and academia provide exceptional opportunities for learning. Project Sanitarium is a serious game for Windows PC and Tablet which aims to embed learning about tuberculosis (TB) through the player taking on the role of a doctor and solving cases across the globe. The project developed as a collaboration between staff and undergraduate students at the School of Arts, Media and Computer Games at Abertay University working with academics and researchers from the Infection Group at the University of St Andrews. The project also engaged industry partners Microsoft and DeltaDNA. The project aimed to educate students through a workplace simulation pedagogical model, encourage public engagement at events and through news coverage and lastly to prototype whether games could be used to simulate a virtual clinical trial. The project was embedded in the Abertay undergraduate programme where students are presented with real world problems to solve through design and technology. The result was a serious game prototype that utilized game design techniques and technology to demystify and educate players about the diagnosis and treatment of one of the world’s oldest and deadliest diseases, TB. Project Sanitarium aims to not only educate the player, but allows the player to become a part of a simulated drug trial that could potentially help create new treatments in the fight against TB. The game incorporates a mathematical model that is based on data from real-world drug trials. The interdisciplinary pedagogical model provides undergraduates with workplace simulation, wider industry collaboration and access to academic expertise to solve challenging and complex problems

Sports, Inc. Volume 9, Issue 2

The ILR Cornell Sports Business Society magazine is a semester publication titled Sports, Inc. This publication serves as a space for our membership to publish and feature in-depth research and well-thought out ideas to advance the world of sport. The magazine can be found in the Office of Student Services and is distributed to alumni who come visit us on campus. Issues are reproduced here with permission of the ILR Cornell Sports Business Society.https://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/sportsinc/1012/thumbnail.jp