Smoothing and filtering with a class of outer measures

Filtering and smoothing with a generalised representation of uncertainty is considered. Here, uncertainty is represented using a class of outer measures. It is shown how this representation of uncertainty can be propagated using outer-measure-type versions of Markov kernels and generalised Bayesian-like update equations. This leads to a system of generalised smoothing and filtering equations where integrals are replaced by supremums and probability density functions are replaced by positive functions with supremum equal to one. Interestingly, these equations retain most of the structure found in the classical Bayesian filtering framework. It is additionally shown that the Kalman filter recursion can be recovered from weaker assumptions on the available information on the corresponding hidden Markov model

Theoretical Interpretations and Applications of Radial Basis Function Networks

Medical applications usually used Radial Basis Function Networks just as Artificial Neural Networks. However, RBFNs are Knowledge-Based Networks that can be interpreted in several way: Artificial Neural Networks, Regularization Networks, Support Vector Machines, Wavelet Networks, Fuzzy Controllers, Kernel Estimators, Instanced-Based Learners. A survey of their interpretations and of their corresponding learning algorithms is provided as well as a brief survey on dynamic learning algorithms. RBFNs' interpretations can suggest applications that are particularly interesting in medical domains

Power System Parameters Forecasting Using Hilbert-Huang Transform and Machine Learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. Apart from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The section 2 presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learning-based algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting

AX-GADGET: a new code for cosmological simulations of Fuzzy Dark Matter and Axion models

We present a new module of the parallel N-Body code P-GADGET3 for cosmological simulations of light bosonic non-thermal dark matter, often referred as Fuzzy Dark Matter (FDM). The dynamics of the FDM features a highly non-linear Quantum Potential (QP) that suppresses the growth of structures at small scales. Most of the previous attempts of FDM simulations either evolved suppressed initial conditions, completely neglecting the dynamical effects of QP throughout cosmic evolution, or resorted to numerically challenging full-wave solvers. The code provides an interesting alternative, following the FDM evolution without impairing the overall performance. This is done by computing the QP acceleration through the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) routines, with improved schemes to ensure precise and stable derivatives. As an extension of the P-GADGET3 code, it inherits all the additional physics modules implemented up to date, opening a wide range of possibilities to constrain FDM models and explore its degeneracies with other physical phenomena. Simulations are compared with analytical predictions and results of other codes, validating the QP as a crucial player in structure formation at small scales.Comment: 18 page

Review of Nature-Inspired Forecast Combination Techniques

Effective and efficient planning in various areas can be significantly supported by forecasting a variable like an economy growth rate or product demand numbers for a future point in time. More than one forecast for the same variable is often available, leading to the question whether one should choose one of the single models or combine several of them to obtain a forecast with improved accuracy. In the almost 40 years of research in the area of forecast combination, an impressive amount of work has been done. This paper reviews forecast combination techniques that are nonlinear and have in some way been inspired by nature

Similarity networks for classification: a case study in the Horse Colic problem

This paper develops a two-layer neural network in which the neuron model computes a user-defined similarity function between inputs and weights. The neuron transfer function is formed by composition of an adapted logistic function with the mean of the partial input-weight similarities. The resulting neuron model is capable of dealing directly with variables of potentially different nature (continuous, fuzzy, ordinal, categorical). There is also provision for missing values. The network is trained using a two-stage procedure very similar to that used to train a radial basis function (RBF) neural network. The network is compared to two types of RBF networks in a non-trivial dataset: the Horse Colic problem, taken as a case study and analyzed in detail.Postprint (published version

Predictive intelligence to the edge through approximate collaborative context reasoning

We focus on Internet of Things (IoT) environments where a network of sensing and computing devices are responsible to locally process contextual data, reason and collaboratively infer the appearance of a specific phenomenon (event). Pushing processing and knowledge inference to the edge of the IoT network allows the complexity of the event reasoning process to be distributed into many manageable pieces and to be physically located at the source of the contextual information. This enables a huge amount of rich data streams to be processed in real time that would be prohibitively complex and costly to deliver on a traditional centralized Cloud system. We propose a lightweight, energy-efficient, distributed, adaptive, multiple-context perspective event reasoning model under uncertainty on each IoT device (sensor/actuator). Each device senses and processes context data and infers events based on different local context perspectives: (i) expert knowledge on event representation, (ii) outliers inference, and (iii) deviation from locally predicted context. Such novel approximate reasoning paradigm is achieved through a contextualized, collaborative belief-driven clustering process, where clusters of devices are formed according to their belief on the presence of events. Our distributed and federated intelligence model efficiently identifies any localized abnormality on the contextual data in light of event reasoning through aggregating local degrees of belief, updates, and adjusts its knowledge to contextual data outliers and novelty detection. We provide comprehensive experimental and comparison assessment of our model over real contextual data with other localized and centralized event detection models and show the benefits stemmed from its adoption by achieving up to three orders of magnitude less energy consumption and high quality of inference