A fuzzy dynamic inoperability input-output model for strategic risk management in global production networks

Strategic decision making in Global Production Networks (GPNs) is quite challenging, especially due to the unavailability of precise quantitative knowledge, variety of relevant risk factors that need to be considered and the interdependencies that can exist between multiple partners across the globe. In this paper, a risk evaluation method for GPNs based on a novel Fuzzy Dynamic Inoperability Input Output Model (Fuzzy DIIM) is proposed. A fuzzy multi-criteria approach is developed to determine interdependencies between nodes in a GPN using experts’ knowledge. An efficient and accurate method based on fuzzy interval calculus in the Fuzzy DIIM is proposed. The risk evaluation method takes into account various risk scenarios relevant to the GPN and likelihoods of their occurrences. A case of beverage production from food industry is used to showcase the application of the proposed risk evaluation method. It is demonstrated how it can be used for GPN strategic decision making. The impact of risk on inoperability of alternative GPN configurations considering different risk scenarios is analysed

System-level prognostics based on inoperability input-output model

International audienceNowadays, the modern industry is increasingly demanding the availability and reliability of production systems as well as the reduction of maintenance costs. The techniques to achieving these goals are recognized and discussed under the term of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). However, the prognostics is often approached from a component point of view. The system-level prognostics (SLP), taking into account interdependencies and multi-interactions between system components, is still an underexplored area. Inspired from the inoperability input-output model (IIM), a new approach for SLP is proposed in this paper. The inoperability corresponds to the component’s degradation, i.e. the reduction of its performance in comparison to an ideal reference state. The interactions between component degradation and the effect of the environment are included when estimating the inoperability of components and also when predicting the system remaining useful life (SRUL). This approach can be applied to complex systems involving multi-heterogeneous components with a reasonable computational effort. Thus, it allows overcoming the lack of scope and scalability of the traditional approaches used in PHM. An illustrative example is presented and discussed in the paper to highlight the performance of the proposed approach

Risk Assessment Methodology for Critical Infrastructure Protection

The European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection is the main vehicle for the protection of critical infrastructures in Europe. The Directive 2008/114/EC is the legislative instrument of this programme. Risk assessment is an important element that is mentioned throughout the Directive text. However, there is no harmonized methodology in Europe for the assessment of interconnected infrastructures. The present work describes such a methodology and its implementation for the assessment of critical infrastructures of European dimension. The methodology accounts for impact at asset level, evaluates the propagation of a failure at network level due to interdependencies and assess the economic impact of critical infrastructure disruption at national level.JRC.G.6-Security technology assessmen

Study on the Recent Cyber Security-Attacks and the Economic Loss Due to the Growing of Cyber-Attacks

Economic damages caused by cyberattacks have been on the rise recently, on a global scale. However, there has not been enough research on the economic damage caused by cyberattacks to other industries; most studies have concentrated on the attacked enterprises. As a means of better damage prediction and other national measures, this study examined the economic damages inflicted on Japan by cyberattacks by employing the production function and the input-output model. We begin by outlining a production function–based approach to estimating the yearly direct harm by industry. Working hours lost due to cyber events are the major input dataset. Second, we used the input-output model to create a model that could estimate the national spillover damage. Thirdly, we explained how to estimate direct and spillover harm in all Japanese industries, even if the data on cyber damage was confined to interview data from the JNSA and the IPA. Therefore, we think our approach of estimating is workable and efficient on a nationwide scale

Elements of Critical Infrastructure Resilience

This Article points to key elements of Critical Infrastructure Resilience (CIR) and how they differ from Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP). CIP is still very important and one of the key systems that the society relies upon to ensure the continuity of operation of CI. However, CIP cannot predict an adequate number of major threats that would allow to conduct the preparedness and response at the level which would ensure the sufficient operation of CI in all cases. In that sense CIR sets a new paradigm with a quality that reduces vulnerability, minimizes the consequences of threats, accelerates response and recovery, and facilitates adaptation to a disruptive event. Some selected concepts of CIR with examples are presented in the Article that should assist in further development and enhancement of resilience of subsystems and infrastructures as a whole, resulting in more secure CI

Electricity Supply Interruptions: Sectoral Interdependencies and the Cost of Energy Not Served for the Scottish Economy

The power sector has a central role in modern economies and other interdependent infrastructures rely heavily upon secure electricity supplies. Due to interdependencies, major electricity supply interruptions result in cascading effects in other sectors of the economy. This paper investigates the economic effects of large power supply disruptions taking such interdependencies into account. We apply a dynamic inoperability input–output model (DIIM) to 101 sectors (including households) of the Scottish economy in 2009 in order to explore direct, indirect, and induced effects of electricity supply interruptions. We then estimate the societal cost of energy not supplied (SCENS) due to interruption, in the presence of interdependency among the sectors. The results show that the most economically affected industries, following an outage, can be different from the most inoperable ones. The results also indicate that SCENS varies with duration of a power cut, ranging from around £4300/MWh for a one-minute outage to around £8100/MWh for a three hour (and higher) interruption. The economic impact of estimates can be used to design policies for contingencies such as roll-out priorities as well as preventive investments in the sector

Modelling cascading failures in lifelines using temporal networks

Lifelines are critical infrastructure systems with high interdependency. During a disaster, the interdependency between the lifelines can lead to cascading failures. In the literature, the approaches used to analyze infrastructure interdependencies within the social, political, and economic domains do not properly describe the infrastructures’ emergency management. During an emergency, the response phase is very condensed in time, and the failures that occur are usually amplified through cascading effects in the long-term period. Because of these peculiarities, interdependencies need to be modeled considering the time dimension. The methodology proposed in this paper is based on a modified version of the Input-output Inoperability Model. The lifelines are modeled using graph theory, and perturbations are applied to the elements of the graph, simulating natural or man-made disasters. The cascading effect among the interdependent networks has been simulated using a spatial multilayer approach. The adjancency tensor has been used to for the temporal dimension and its effects. Finally, the numerical results of the simulations with the proposed model are represented by probabilities of failure for each node of the system. As a case study, the methodology has been applied to a nuclear power plant. The model can be adopted to run analysis at different scales, from the regional to the local scales

Modelling inoperability propagation mechanism in interdependent systems

This communication considers the issue of deriving a model to describ how the inoperating level of a particular system (a production unit, a transportation system, an energy supply plant, etc.) of interconnected or interdependent systems(neworking and interdependency are interchangeable in this communication) will impact the operating level of other systems for the purpose of analysis, simulation, prediction, risk assessment, etc. The mechanism of such impacting process may be very complex; for instance to impact the operating level of a system the inoperability of another system may need to reach a certain level (threshold), to combine (synergy) with other events or situations; there may exist some preemptivity condition (that is to destabilize a given system some particular conditions must be satisfied). The main purpose of this communication is therefore to establish a model of inoperability propagation in a networked systems when taking into account as much as possible phenomena such as thresholding, synergy, resilience, etc. Necessity of synergy appeals for a synergetic aggregation operator; to this end, we propose to consider using Choquet integral associeted with a weighted cardinal fuzzy meaure (wcfm) as the appropriate aggregation operator. Furthermore this association leads to a straightforward formula to compute the integral

An ontology supported risk assessment approach for the intelligent configuration of supply networks

As progress towards globalisation continues, organisations seek ever better ways with which to configure and reconfigure their global production networks so as to better understand and be able to deal with risk. Such networks are complex arrangements of different organisations from potentially diverse and divergent domains and geographical locations. Moreover, greater focus is being put upon global production network systems and how these can be better coordinated, controlled and assessed for risk, so that they are flexible and competitive advantage can be gained from them within the market place. This paper puts forward a reference ontology to support risk assessment for product-service systems applied to the domain of global production networks. The aim behind this is to help accelerate the development of information systems by way of developing a common foundation to improve interoperability and the seamless exchange of information between systems and organisations. A formal common logic based approach has been used to develop the reference ontology, utilising end user information and knowledge from three separate industrial domains. Results are presented which illustrate the ability of the approach, together with areas for further work