Climate change effects on international stability : a white paper.

This white paper represents a summary of work intended to lay the foundation for development of a climatological/agent model of climate-induced conflict. The paper combines several loosely-coupled efforts and is the final report for a four-month late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project funded by the Advanced Concepts Group (ACG). The project involved contributions by many participants having diverse areas of expertise, with the common goal of learning how to tie together the physical and human causes and consequences of climate change. We performed a review of relevant literature on conflict arising from environmental scarcity. Rather than simply reviewing the previous work, we actively collected data from the referenced sources, reproduced some of the work, and explored alternative models. We used the unfolding crisis in Darfur (western Sudan) as a case study of conflict related to or triggered by climate change, and as an exercise for developing a preliminary concept map. We also outlined a plan for implementing agents in a climate model and defined a logical progression toward the ultimate goal of running both types of models simultaneously in a two-way feedback mode, where the behavior of agents influences the climate and climate change affects the agents. Finally, we offer some ''lessons learned'' in attempting to keep a diverse and geographically dispersed group working together by using Web-based collaborative tools

Forecasting Stability Levels for the Countries of the Former Soviet Union

United States intelligence officers and policymakers need reliable forecasts of country, regional, and global stability or instability. Such forecasts require a methodology for identifying and analyzing factors that contribute to stability. The anticipation of this stability level can facilitate crisis warning and diplomatic strategies for various timelines, including five, ten, and twenty year forecasts. While the problem of forecasting can be tackled in various ways, in the interest of time and space, I will only go into a few of them. The approach I will use is multiple linear regression to generate a short-term forecast for the stability levels of the countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). This model could ultimately be used to help formulate policies that enhance stability in developing or transitioning countries

Requirement analysis framework of naval military system for expeditionary warfare

Military systems are getting more complex due to the demands of various types of missions, rapidly evolving technologies, and budgetary constraints. In order to support complex military systems, there is a need to develop a new naval logistic asset that can respond to global missions effectively. This development is based on the requirement which must be satisfice-able within the budgetary constraints, address pressing real world needs, and allow designers to innovate. This research is conducted to produce feasible and viable requirements for naval logistic assets in complex military systems. The process to find these requirements has diverse uncertainties about logistics, environment and missions. To understand and address these uncertainties, this research includes instability analysis, operational analysis, sea state analysis and disembarkation analysis. By the adaptive Monte-Carlo simulation with maximum entropy, uncertainties are considered with corresponding probabilistic distribution. From Monte-Carlo simulation, the concept of Probabilistic Logistic Utility (PLU) was created as a measure of logistic ability. To demonstrate the usability of this research, this procedure is applied to a Medium Exploratory Connector (MEC) which is an Office of Naval Research (ONR) innovative naval prototype. Finally, the preliminary design and multi-criteria decision-making method become capable of including requirements considering uncertainties.Ph.D

The African Union and Intelligence Cooperation

The core research question is: how does intelligence and security services of Member States to the AU and established regional and continental security intelligence organisations collectively contribute to the implementation of the APSA? The study empirically reconstructs – descriptively, functionally and analytically – the mechanisms, magnitude and processes of intelligence cooperation at the regional and continental level within the framework of the APSA. In line with the above, the study answers these research questions: i. What are the contributions of the CEWS, as a form of open-source intelligence outfit, to the APSA? ii. What are the roles and contributions of CISSA to the AUC with particular reference to the APSA? iii. How does the Nouakchott and the Djibouti Processes contribute to implementing the APSA? Acknowledging that intelligence cooperation is strategically poised, the interest of this study is directed towards identifying, examining and evaluating established institutions and frameworks and their respective processes of intelligence cooperation. Thus, the study looks at the contribution of security intelligence towards the implementation of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) of the African Union (AU), and the thesis is divided into seven chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the study and outlines the research problem, methodology, sources and materials. The second chapter provides an overview of the academic debates around intelligence cooperation. The third chapter empirically reconstructs the configurations of the APSA and conceptualise the function and service roles of each pillar in a descriptive, functional and analytical lens. Chapter 4 reconstructs the operationalisation and institutionalisation of the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and further examine its methodology and how it aligns early warning to decision making and early action. Chapter 5 examined the roles and contributions of the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) to the African Union Commission (AUC) with particular reference to the APSA. Chapter 6 provides extensive analysis and reconstruction of the operationalisation of the APSA through intelligence cooperation in the Sahelo-Saharan, East and Horn of Africa regions through the Nouakchott Process and the Djibouti Process, respectively, and the last chapter concludes the study by synopsising and reflecting on the research questions and outlining the significant contributions of the study.:Acknowledgements ii List of Figures viii List of Abbreviations ix Chapter One 1 Introduction and Overview of the Study 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 State of the art 3 1.2.1 Global Intelligence Services 3 1.2.2 Intelligence Services in Africa 9 1.2.3 Intelligence Cooperation and the AU 11 1.3 Research Question 14 1.4 Research Design 15 1.4.1 Methodology 17 1.4.2 Methods 18 1.4.3 Sources and Materials 20 1.5 Organization of the thesis 21 Chapter Two 24 Intelligence Cooperation in International and Regional Organisations 24 2.1 Introduction 24 2.2 Intelligence Cooperation in International Organisations 25 2.3 Intelligence Cooperation in Regional Organisations 35 2.4 Intelligence Cooperation Typologies 44 2.5 Intelligence Cooperation Methodologies 47 2.6 Chapter Summary 49 Chapter Three 51 The African Peace and Security Architecture 51 3.1 Introduction 51 3.2 Structure of the APSA 52 3.2.1 Peace and Security Council 55 3.2.2 Panel of the Wise 60 3.2.3 Continental Early Warning System 67 3.2.4 African Standby Force 68 3.2.5 Peace Fund 73 3.3 APSA’s Strategic Priorities 75 3.4 APSA and RECs 80 3.5 Chapter Summary 84 Chapter Four 87 The CEWS, Intelligence cooperation and the APSA 87 4.1 Introduction 87 4.2 Intelligence Cooperation, Early Warning and the OAU 90 4.3 The PSC Protocol and the CEWS 97 4.4 The Operationalisation of the CEWS 100 4.5 The Institutionalisation of the CEWS 107 4.5.1 The Situation Room 107 4.5.2 The African Media Monitor 109 4.5.3 Africa Reporter 110 4.5.4 Africa Prospects 111 4.5.5 Indicators and Profile Module 111 4.5.6 The CEWS Portal 112 4.5 The CEWS Methodology 113 4.5.1 Information Collection and Monitoring 113 4.5.2 Conflict and Cooperation Analysis 118 4.5.3 Formulation of Options 121 4.5.4 Responses 123 4.6 Early Warning, Decision Making and Early Action 124 4.7 The CEWS and RECs 131 4.8 The CEWS and other Early Warning Mechanisms 134 4.8.1 Continental Structural Conflict Prevention Framework 135 4.8.2 African Peer Review Mechanism and Conflict Prevention 137 4.8.3 Horizon Scanning 139 4.9 Challenges to the CEWS 140 4.10 The Evolution and Future of the CEWS 146 4.11 Chapter Summary 149 Chapter Five 153 Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa and the APSA 153 5.1 Introduction 153 5.2 Genesis 154 5.3 Mandate, Vision and Mission 157 5.4 Objectives 157 5.5 Principles 162 5.6 Functions 163 5.7 Structures of CISSA and their Functions 164 5.7.1 The Conference 164 5.7.2 Panel of Experts 178 5.7.3 Bureau of the CISSA Conference 179 5.7.4 The CISSA Regions 180 5.7.5 Troika 182 5.7.6 The Secretariat 182 5.7.7 Specialised Technical Committees 187 5.8. Relationship between CISSA and the AU 188 5.9 The Intelligence and Security Committee \ CISSA Liaison Unit 189 5.10 CISSA and Regional Security Intelligence Institutions 196 5.11 Challenges to the performance of CISSA 198 5.12 Chapter Summary 210 Chapter Six 213 Intelligence Cooperation in the Nouakchott and Djibouti Processes, 2013-2021 213 6.1 Introduction 213 6.2 The Nouakchott Process 216 6.2.1 Genesis 216 6.2.2 Inauguration 219 6.2.3 Implementation of the Nouakchott Conclusions 228 6.2.4 The Nouakchott Declaration 233 6.2.5 The Nouakchott Process vis-à-vis other Regional Frameworks 236 6.2.6 Post-declaration, Challenges and Prospect 237 6.3 The Djibouti Process 245 6.3.1 Background 245 6.3.2 Rationale 246 6.3.3 Establishment 247 6.3.4 Implementation Meetings 252 6.4 The Nouakchott and the Djibouti Processes 257 6.4.1 Joint Meeting 257 6.4.2 Points for Action 259 6.5 Past for the future in the present 261 6.6 Influence and Power Contestations 265 6.7 Chapter Summary 273 Chapter Seven 275 Conclusion 275 7.1 Introduction 275 7.2 Summary of key arguments 276 7.3 Contributions and suggestions for future research 286 8. References 293 8.1 Sources 293 8.2 Literature 303 8.3 Interviews 337 Assurance 33

Forecasting Instability Indicators in the Horn of Africa Region

The forecasting of state failure and the associated indicators has been a topic of great interest to a number of different agencies. USAID, CENTCOM, the World Bank, the Center for Army Analyses, and others have all examined the subject based on their own specific objectives. Whether the goal is denying terrorists space in which to operate, deciding how to pre-position materials in anticipation of unrest, stabilizing foreign markets and trade, or preventing or mitigating humanitarian disasters, man made or otherwise, this topic has been of interest for over a decade. The Horn of Africa has been one of the least stable regions in the world over the past three decades, and a continual source of humanitarian crises as well as terrorist activity. Some of the initial modeling of instability was done in response to crises in the Horn of Africa, but research is ongoing. Current models forecasting instability suffer from lack of lead time, subjective predictions, and lack of specificity. The models demonstrated in this study provide 4 year forecasts of battle deaths per capita, refugees per capita, genocide, and undernourishment for Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. This thesis used principal component analysis, canonical correlation, ordinary least squares regression, logistic regression, and discriminant analysis to develop models of each instability indicator using 54 variables covering 32 years of observations. The key variables within each model are identified, and the accuracy of each model is compared with current models

NATURAL PHENOMENA AS POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON SOCIAL AND POLITICAL BEHAVIOR: THE EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD

Researchers use natural phenomena in a number of disciplines to help explain human behavioral outcomes. Research regarding the potential effects of magnetic fields on animal and human behavior indicates that fields could influence outcomes of interest to social scientists. Tests so far have been limited in scope. This work is a preliminary evaluation of whether the earth’s magnetic field influences human behavior it examines the baseline relationship exhibited between geomagnetic readings and a host of social and political outcomes. The emphasis on breadth of topical coverage in these statistical trials, rather than on depth of development for any one model, means that evidence is only suggestive – but geomagnetic readings frequently covary with social and political variables in a fashion that seems inexplicable in the absence of a causal relationship. The pattern often holds up in more-elaborate statistical models. Analysis provides compelling evidence that geomagnetic variables furnish valuable information to models. Many researchers are already aware of potential causal mechanisms that link human behavior to geomagnetic levels and this evidence provides a compelling case for continuing to develop the line of research with in-depth, focused analysis

Um modelo para suporte ao raciocínio diagnóstico diante da dinâmica do conhecimento sobre incertezas

Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia e Gestão do Conhecimento, Florianópolis, 2013A Engenharia do Conhecimento recorre a abordagens transdisciplinares objetivando oferecer soluções às demandas sociais, destacando-se, artefatos para suporte à decisão. A tomada de decisão humana pode ser de magnitude tão complexa que a atividade intensiva em conhecimento realizada pelo especialista demande assistência proveniente de modelos elaborados por uma visão sistêmica do engenheiro do conhecimento no espaço da solução. O problema desta pesquisa emerge da atividade do especialista médico em Classificação de Risco Metabólico em crianças e adolescentes. As variáveis deste cenário e o processo de classificação apresentam incertezas, manifestadas por causalidade e imprecisão. Redes Bayesianas são empregadas no suporte a classificação cujas variáveis que representam o conhecimento são de natureza probabilística. Contudo, o método bayesiano clássico, diante do fator imprecisão, pode convergir para resultados não qualificados em conformidade àqueles obtidos pelo raciocínio clínico. Por outro lado, Redes Fuzzy-Bayesianas aprimoraram o modelo clássico para suportar inferência sobre conceitos ambíguos. Esta pesquisa contribuiu com o desenvolvimento de um modelo de inferência fuzzy-bayesiano para variáveis não-dicotômicas oferecendo suporte ao raciocínio médico num cenário complexo cuja dinâmica da imprecisão é caracterizada por um tipo de superposição conceitual. Essencialmente dispõe de formalismo matemático modificando a equação do Teorema de Bayes, introduzindo qualificadores difusos para lidar com a imprecisão. Para verificar o modelo utilizou-se de simulações aplicadas sobre dados reais de prontuários. Os resultados obtidos mostraram-se convergentes com a interpretação do especialista e a característica notável foi à qualidade destes resultados nos intervalos próximos aos pontos de corte utilizados pelos especialistas e reproduzidos pelo método bayesiano clássico, problema este que não releva a imprecisão. O modelo distribuiu as probabilidades das hipóteses diagnósticas acompanhando a dinâmica inerente a imprecisão das evidências. Este efeito mostra que um paciente, mesmo que de modo gradual, pode estar evoluindo para um cenário de risco metabólico. O modelo é propenso de ser acoplado a metodologias da Engenharia do Conhecimento e sua implementação pode gerar uma ferramenta aliada à prática do diagnóstico clínico. Abstract : The Knowledge Engineering uses transdisciplinary approaches aiming to provide solutions to social demands, especially, artifacts for decision support. The human decision making can be so complex that the magnitude knowledge intensive activity undertaken by specialist demande assistance from models developed by a systemic view of the knowledge engineer in the solution space. The problem of this research emerges from the activity of the specialist physician in Metabolic Risk Rating in children and adolescents. The variables of this scenario and the classification process is uncertain, expressed by causality and imprecision. Bayesian networks are employed to support the classification whose variables representing knowledge are probabilistic in nature. However, the classical Bayesian method, given the uncertainty factor can converge to results unskilled in accordance to those obtained by clinical reasoning. On the other hand, improved Bayesian Networks Fuzzy-classical model to support inference about ambiguous concepts. This research contributed to the development of a fuzzy-Bayesian inference for non-dichotomous variables supporting the medical reasoning in a complex scenario whose dynamics of vagueness is characterized by a kind of conceptual overlay. Essentially offers mathematical formalism modifying the equation of Bayes Theorem, introducing fuzzy qualifiers to deal with imprecision. To verify the model we used simulations applied to real data from medical records. The results obtained were convergent with interpretation specialist and notable feature was the quality of these results in the ranges near the cutoff points used by experts and reproduced by classical Bayesian method, a problem that does not excuse the inaccuracy. The distributed model the odds of diagnostic hypotheses tracking the dynamics inherent imprecision of the evidence. This effect shows that a patient, even if gradually, may be evolving into a scenario of metabolic risk. The model is likely to be coupled to the Knowledge Engineering methodologies and their implementation can generate a tool coupled with the practice of clinical diagnosis