Decision support model for the selection of asphalt wearing courses in highly trafficked roads

The suitable choice of the materials forming the wearing course of highly trafficked roads is a delicate task because of their direct interaction with vehicles. Furthermore, modern roads must be planned according to sustainable development goals, which is complex because some of these might be in conflict. Under this premise, this paper develops a multi-criteria decision support model based on the analytic hierarchy process and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution to facilitate the selection of wearing courses in European countries. Variables were modelled using either fuzzy logic or Monte Carlo methods, depending on their nature. The views of a panel of experts on the problem were collected and processed using the generalized reduced gradient algorithm and a distance-based aggregation approach. The results showed a clear preponderance by stone mastic asphalt over the remaining alternatives in different scenarios evaluated through sensitivity analysis. The research leading to these results was framed in the European FP7 Project DURABROADS (No. 605404).The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under Grant Agreement No. 605404

A FUZZY DECISION MAKING APPROACH IN EVALUATING FERRY SERVICE QUALITY

The service quality evaluation is undeniably important especially in highly competitive service related industry. However, service quality evaluation is not always straightforward as criteria in evaluation and customer perceptions toward services are intangible measures. This paper presents a fuzzy multi-criteria decision making approach for evaluating the service quality of ferry that transport customers between the mainland of Peninsular Malaysia and a tourist spot island. Service quality is a composite of various criteria, among them many criteria are intangible and difficult to measure. Fuzzy numbers and linguistic level based on fuzzy sets theory as a method to overcome vaguely judgment in evaluation. The crisp survey results were collected via a ten-service criteria questionnaire from eighty seven customers and computed using Best non-Fuzzy Performance and Degree of Similarity. Based on the concept of the defuzzification, the ranking of service performance is obtained. Degree of Similarity provides the level of satisfaction and its degrees for each criterion. The criterion of ‘service efficiency of ferry personnel’ was the first in the ranking. All the criteria received ‘good’ and ‘very good’ for the level of satisfaction. These evaluation results facilitate the ferry operator to upgrade its ferry services and eventually meet its customers’ needs.Service quality, fuzzy number, satisfaction level, defuzzification.

An experimental methodology for a fuzzy set preference model

A flexible fuzzy set preference model first requires approximate methodologies for implementation. Fuzzy sets must be defined for each individual consumer using computer software, requiring a minimum of time and expertise on the part of the consumer. The amount of information needed in defining sets must also be established. The model itself must adapt fully to the subject's choice of attributes (vague or precise), attribute levels, and importance weights. The resulting individual-level model should be fully adapted to each consumer. The methodologies needed to develop this model will be equally useful in a new generation of intelligent systems which interact with ordinary consumers, controlling electronic devices through fuzzy expert systems or making recommendations based on a variety of inputs. The power of personal computers and their acceptance by consumers has yet to be fully utilized to create interactive knowledge systems that fully adapt their function to the user. Understanding individual consumer preferences is critical to the design of new products and the estimation of demand (market share) for existing products, which in turn is an input to management systems concerned with production and distribution. The question of what to make, for whom to make it and how much to make requires an understanding of the customer's preferences and the trade-offs that exist between alternatives. Conjoint analysis is a widely used methodology which de-composes an overall preference for an object into a combination of preferences for its constituent parts (attributes such as taste and price), which are combined using an appropriate combination function. Preferences are often expressed using linguistic terms which cannot be represented in conjoint models. Current models are also not implemented an individual level, making it difficult to reach meaningful conclusions about the cause of an individual's behavior from an aggregate model. The combination of complex aggregate models and vague linguistic preferences has greatly limited the usefulness and predictive validity of existing preference models. A fuzzy set preference model that uses linguistic variables and a fully interactive implementation should be able to simultaneously address these issues and substantially improve the accuracy of demand estimates. The parallel implementation of crisp and fuzzy conjoint models using identical data not only validates the fuzzy set model but also provides an opportunity to assess the impact of fuzzy set definitions and individual attribute choices implemented in the interactive methodology developed in this research. The generalized experimental tools needed for conjoint models can also be applied to many other types of intelligent systems

The Effect of Uncertainty on Contingent Valuation Estimates: A Comparison

We examine the impact of uncertainty on contingent valuation responses using (1) a survey of Canadian landowners about willingness to accept compensation for converting cropland to forestry and (2) a survey of Swedish residents about willingness to pay for forest conservation. Five approaches from the literature for incorporating respondent uncertainty are used and compared to the traditional RUM model with assumed certainty. The results indicate that incorporating uncertainty has the potential to increase fit, but could introduce additional variance. While some methods for uncertainty are an improvement over traditional approaches, we caution against systematic judgments about the effect of uncertainty on contingent valuation responses.respondent uncertainty, willingness to accept, contingent valuation

A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis

Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share prediction)

A psychometric modeling approach to fuzzy rating data

Modeling fuzziness and imprecision in human rating data is a crucial problem in many research areas, including applied statistics, behavioral, social, and health sciences. Because of the interplay between cognitive, affective, and contextual factors, the process of answering survey questions is a complex task, which can barely be captured by standard (crisp) rating responses. Fuzzy rating scales have progressively been adopted to overcome some of the limitations of standard rating scales, including their inability to disentangle decision uncertainty from individual responses. The aim of this article is to provide a novel fuzzy scaling procedure which uses Item Response Theory trees (IRTrees) as a psychometric model for the stage-wise latent response process. In so doing, fuzziness of rating data is modeled using the overall rater's pattern of responses instead of being computed using a single-item based approach. This offers a consistent system for interpreting fuzziness in terms of individual-based decision uncertainty. A simulation study and two empirical applications are adopted to assess the characteristics of the proposed model and provide converging results about its effectiveness in modeling fuzziness and imprecision in rating data

Modeling random and non-random decision uncertainty in ratings data: A fuzzy beta model

Modeling human ratings data subject to raters' decision uncertainty is an attractive problem in applied statistics. In view of the complex interplay between emotion and decision making in rating processes, final raters' choices seldom reflect the true underlying raters' responses. Rather, they are imprecisely observed in the sense that they are subject to a non-random component of uncertainty, namely the decision uncertainty. The purpose of this article is to illustrate a statistical approach to analyse ratings data which integrates both random and non-random components of the rating process. In particular, beta fuzzy numbers are used to model raters' non-random decision uncertainty and a variable dispersion beta linear model is instead adopted to model the random counterpart of rating responses. The main idea is to quantify characteristics of latent and non-fuzzy rating responses by means of random observations subject to fuzziness. To do so, a fuzzy version of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm is adopted to both estimate model's parameters and compute their standard errors. Finally, the characteristics of the proposed fuzzy beta model are investigated by means of a simulation study as well as two case studies from behavioral and social contexts.Comment: 24 pages, 0 figures, 5 table

Condition Assessment Models for Sewer Pipelines

Underground pipeline system is a complex infrastructure system that has significant impact on social, environmental and economic aspects. Sewer pipeline networks are considered to be an extremely expensive asset. This study aims to develop condition assessment models for sewer pipeline networks. Seventeen factors affecting the condition of sewer network were considered for gravity pipelines in addition to the operating pressure for pressurized pipelines. Two different methodologies were adopted for models’ development. The first method by using an integrated Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) and Monte-Carlo simulation and the second method by using FANP, fuzzy set theory (FST) and Evidential Reasoning (ER). The models’ output is the assessed pipeline condition. In order to collect the necessary data for developing the models, questionnaires were distributed among experts in sewer pipelines in the state of Qatar. In addition, actual data for an existing sewage network in the state of Qatar was used to validate the models’ outputs. The “Ground Disturbance” factor was found to be the most influential factor followed by the “Location” factor with a weight of 10.6% and 9.3% for pipelines under gravity and 8.8% and 8.6% for pipelines under pressure, respectively. On the other hand, the least affecting factor was the “Length” followed by “Diameter” with weights of 2.2% and 2.5% for pipelines under gravity and 2.5% and 2.6% for pipelines under pressure. The developed models were able to satisfactorily assess the conditions of deteriorating sewer pipelines with an average validity of approximately 85% for the first approach and 86% for the second approach. The developed models are expected to be a useful tool for decision makers to properly plan for their inspections and provide effective rehabilitation of sewer networks.1)- NPRP grant # (NPRP6-357-2-150) from the QatarNational Research Fund (Member of Qatar Foundation) 2)-Tarek Zayed, Professor of Civil Engineeringat Concordia University for his support in the analysis part, the Public Works 3)-Authority of Qatar (ASHGAL) for their support in the data collection