MODELLING EXPECTATIONS WITH GENEFER- AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPROACH

Economic modelling of financial markets means to model highly complex systems in which expectations can be the dominant driving forces. Therefore it is necessary to focus on how agents form their expectations. We believe that they look for patterns, hypothesize, try, make mistakes, learn and adapt. AgentsÆ bounded rationality leads us to a rule-based approach which we model using Fuzzy Rule-Bases. E. g. if a single agent believes the exchange rate is determined by a set of possible inputs and is asked to put their relationship in words his answer will probably reveal a fuzzy nature like: "IF the inflation rate in the EURO-Zone is low and the GDP growth rate is larger than in the US THEN the EURO will rise against the USD". æLowÆ and ælargerÆ are fuzzy terms which give a gradual linguistic meaning to crisp intervalls in the respective universes of discourse. In order to learn a Fuzzy Fuzzy Rule base from examples we introduce Genetic Algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks as learning operators. These examples can either be empirical data or originate from an economic simulation model. The software GENEFER (GEnetic NEural Fuzzy ExplorER) has been developed for designing such a Fuzzy Rule Base. The design process is modular and comprises Input Identification, Fuzzification, Rule-Base Generating and Rule-Base Tuning. The two latter steps make use of genetic and neural learning algorithms for optimizing the Fuzzy Rule-Base.

Using fuzzy logic to integrate neural networks and knowledge-based systems

Outlined here is a novel hybrid architecture that uses fuzzy logic to integrate neural networks and knowledge-based systems. The author's approach offers important synergistic benefits to neural nets, approximate reasoning, and symbolic processing. Fuzzy inference rules extend symbolic systems with approximate reasoning capabilities, which are used for integrating and interpreting the outputs of neural networks. The symbolic system captures meta-level information about neural networks and defines its interaction with neural networks through a set of control tasks. Fuzzy action rules provide a robust mechanism for recognizing the situations in which neural networks require certain control actions. The neural nets, on the other hand, offer flexible classification and adaptive learning capabilities, which are crucial for dynamic and noisy environments. By combining neural nets and symbolic systems at their system levels through the use of fuzzy logic, the author's approach alleviates current difficulties in reconciling differences between low-level data processing mechanisms of neural nets and artificial intelligence systems

A Modular Programmable CMOS Analog Fuzzy Controller Chip

We present a highly modular fuzzy inference analog CMOS chip architecture with on-chip digital programmability. This chip consists of the interconnection of parameterized instances of two different kind of blocks, namely label blocks and rule blocks. The architecture realizes a lattice partition of the universe of discourse, which at the hardware level means that the fuzzy labels associated to every input (realized by the label blocks) are shared among the rule blocks. This reduces the area and power consumption and is the key point for chip modularity. The proposed architecture is demonstrated through a 16-rule two input CMOS 1-μm prototype which features an operation speed of 2.5 Mflips (2.5×10^6 fuzzy inferences per second) with 8.6 mW power consumption. Core area occupation of this prototype is of only 1.6 mm 2 including the digital control and memory circuitry used for programmability. Because of the architecture modularity the number of inputs and rules can be increased with any hardly design effort.This work was supported in part by the Spanish C.I.C.Y.T under Contract TIC96-1392-C02- 02 (SIVA)

Platonic model of mind as an approximation to neurodynamics

Hierarchy of approximations involved in simplification of microscopic theories, from sub-cellural to the whole brain level, is presented. A new approximation to neural dynamics is described, leading to a Platonic-like model of mind based on psychological spaces. Objects and events in these spaces correspond to quasi-stable states of brain dynamics and may be interpreted from psychological point of view. Platonic model bridges the gap between neurosciences and psychological sciences. Static and dynamic versions of this model are outlined and Feature Space Mapping, a neurofuzzy realization of the static version of Platonic model, described. Categorization experiments with human subjects are analyzed from the neurodynamical and Platonic model points of view

The VEX-93 environment as a hybrid tool for developing knowledge systems with different problem solving techniques

The paper describes VEX-93 as a hybrid environment for developing knowledge-based and problem solver systems. It integrates methods and techniques from artificial intelligence, image and signal processing and data analysis, which can be mixed. Two hierarchical levels of reasoning contains an intelligent toolbox with one upper strategic inference engine and four lower ones containing specific reasoning models: truth-functional (rule-based), probabilistic (causal networks), fuzzy (rule-based) and case-based (frames). There are image/signal processing-analysis capabilities in the form of programming languages with more than one hundred primitive functions. User-made programs are embeddable within knowledge basis, allowing the combination of perception and reasoning. The data analyzer toolbox contains a collection of numerical classification, pattern recognition and ordination methods, with neural network tools and a data base query language at inference engines's disposal. VEX-93 is an open system able to communicate with external computer programs relevant to a particular application. Metaknowledge can be used for elaborate conclusions, and man-machine interaction includes, besides windows and graphical interfaces, acceptance of voice commands and production of speech output. The system was conceived for real-world applications in general domains, but an example of a concrete medical diagnostic support system at present under completion as a cuban-spanish project is mentioned. Present version of VEX-93 is a huge system composed by about one and half millions of lines of C code and runs in microcomputers under Windows 3.1.Postprint (published version