Large-scale climatic teleconnection for predicting extreme hydro-climatic events in southern Japan

Coordinator: Sameh KantoushPrnicipial Invistegator: Vahid Nouran

Fuzzy Clustering-Based Ensemble Approach to Predicting Indian Monsoon

Indian monsoon is an important climatic phenomenon and a global climatic marker. Both statistical and numerical prediction schemes for Indian monsoon have been widely studied in literature. Statistical schemes are mainly based on regression or neural networks. However, the variability of monsoon is significant over the years and a single model is often inadequate. Meteorologists revise their models on different years based on prevailing global climatic incidents like El-Niño. These indices often have degree of severity associated with them. In this paper, we cluster the monsoon years based on their fuzzy degree of associativity to these climatic event patterns. Next, we develop individual prediction models for the year clusters. A weighted ensemble of these individual models is used to obtain the final forecast. The proposed method performs competitively with existing forecast models

Survey on Analysis of Meteorological Condition Based on Data Mining Techniques

An application of data mining is a rich focus to Classification algorithm, Association algorithm, Clustering algorithm which can be applied to the field of various resources it concerns with developing methods that discover the knowledge from data origination. In this paper, focuses on meteorological data analysis in form of data mining is concerned to predict the knowledge of weather condition. Rainfall analysis, temperature analysis, based on climatic condition, cyclone form data analysis is vital application role for meteorological analysis in data mining techniques. Prediction, association and forecasting are the several method in data mining used for meteorological analysis. Many countries have already experienced deadly droughts and floods also climate-induced natural disasters have displaced hundreds of thousands of people across the world. Mainly due to over ambitious strategies and actions of human beings on the eco-system, data mining play a significant role in determining the climate trends in crucial manner. In this research work is discussing the application of different data mining techniques applied in several ways to predict or to associate or to classify or to cluster the pattern of meteorological data. It can be provided for future direction for research

A Comprehensive Survey of Data Mining Techniques on Time Series Data for Rainfall Prediction

Time series data available in huge amounts can be used in decision-making. Such time series data can be converted into information to be used for forecasting. Various techniques are available for prediction and forecasting on the basis of time series data. Presently, the use of data mining techniques for this purpose is increasing day by day. In the present study, a comprehensive survey of data mining approaches and statistical techniques for rainfall prediction on time series data was conducted. A detailed comparison of different relevant techniques was also conducted and some plausible solutions are suggested for efficient time series data mining techniques for future algorithms.

Determining the Neuron Weights of Fuzzy Neural Networks Using Multi-Populations Particle Swarm Optimization for Rainfall Forecasting

Rainfall trends forecasting is essential for several fields, such as airline and ship management, flood control and agriculture and it can be solved by Fuzzy Neural Networks (FNN) approach. However, one of the challenges in implementing the FNN algorithm is to determine the neuron weights. In comparison to Gradient Descent approach, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) has been the common approach used to determine neuron weights that result in a more accurate output. However, one of the weaknesses of PSO approach is it tends to convergence after iteration. To overcome this weakness, this study uses a multi-population mechanism to improve the result of PSO approach. The result shows that FNN optimized by PSO with the multi-population mechanism provided a better result than FNN optimized by standard PSO approach and by Gradient Descent approach. Besides, FNN optimized by PSO with multi-population mechanism is capable to produce a better result than the standard Multi-layer Neural Networks optimized by PSO

Probabilistic and artificial intelligence modelling of drought and agricultural crop yield in Pakistan

Pakistan is a drought-prone, agricultural nation with hydro-meteorological imbalances that increase the scarcity of water resources, thus, constraining water availability and leading major risks to the agricultural productivity sector and food security. Rainfall and drought are imperative matters of consideration, both for hydrological and agricultural applications. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to advance new knowledge in designing hybridized probabilistic and artificial intelligence forecasts models for rainfall, drought and crop yield within the agricultural hubs in Pakistan. The choice of these study regions is a strategic decision, to focus on precision agriculture given the importance of rainfall and drought events on agricultural crops in socioeconomic activities of Pakistan. The outcomes of this PhD contribute to efficient modelling of seasonal rainfall, drought and crop yield to assist farmers and other stakeholders to promote more strategic decisions for better management of climate risk for agriculturalreliant nations

National-Scale Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Susceptibility and Exposure in Nepal

Nepal is one of the most landslide-prone countries in the world, with year-on-year impacts resulting in loss of life and imposing a chronic impediment to sustainable livelihoods. Living with landslides is a daily reality for an increasing number of people, so establishing the nature of landslide hazard and risk is essential. Here we develop a model of landslide susceptibility for Nepal and use this to generate a nationwide geographical profile of exposure to rainfall-triggered landslides. We model landslide susceptibility using a fuzzy overlay approach based on freely-available topographic data, trained on an inventory of mapped landslides, and combine this with high resolution population and building data to describe the spatial distribution of exposure to landslides. We find that whilst landslide susceptibility is highest in the High Himalaya, exposure is highest within the Middle Hills, but this is highly spatially variable and skewed to on average relatively low values. Around 4 × 106 Nepalis (∼15\% of the population) live in areas considered to be at moderate or higher degree of exposure to landsliding (>0.25 of the maximum), and critically this number is highly sensitive to even small variations in landslide susceptibility. Our results show a complex relationship between landslides and buildings, that implies wider complexity in the association between physical exposure to landslides and poverty. This analysis for the first time brings into focus the geography of the landslide exposure and risk case load in Nepal, and demonstrates limitations of assessing future risk based on limited records of previous events