6,760 research outputs found
Fusion of multiple diverse predictors in stock market
Forecasting stock returns and their risk represents one of the most important concerns of market decision makers. Although many studies have examined single classifiers of stock returns and risk methods, fusion methods, which have only recently emerged, require further study in this area. The main aim of this paper is to propose a fusion model based on the use of multiple diverse base classifiers that operate on a common input and a Meta classifier that learns from base classifiers’ outputs to obtain more precise stock return and risk predictions. A set of diversity methods, including Bagging, Boosting and AdaBoost, is applied to create diversity in classifier combinations. Moreover, the number and procedure for selecting base classifiers for fusion schemes is determined using a methodology based on dataset clustering and candidate classifiers’ accuracy. The results demonstrate that Bagging exhibited superior performance within the fusion scheme and could achieve a maximum of 83.6% accuracy with Decision Tree, LAD Tree and Rep Tree for return prediction and 88.2% accuracy with BF Tree, DTNB and LAD Tree in risk prediction. For feature selection part, a wrapper-GA algorithm is developed and compared with the fusion model. This paper seeks to help researcher select the best individual classifiers and fuse the proper scheme in stock market prediction. To illustrate the approach, we apply it to Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) data for the period from 2002 to 2012
Technical and Fundamental Features Analysis for Stock Market Prediction with Data Mining Methods
Predicting stock prices is an essential objective in the financial world. Forecasting stock returns and their risk represents one of the most critical concerns of market decision makers. This thesis investigates the stock price forecasting with three approaches from the data mining concept and shows how different elements in the stock price can help to enhance the accuracy of our prediction. For this reason, the first and second approaches capture many fundamental indicators from the stocks and implement them as explanatory variables to do stock price classification and forecasting. In the third approach, technical features from the candlestick representation of the share prices are extracted and used to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting. In each approach, different tools and techniques from data mining and machine learning are employed to justify why the forecasting is working.
Furthermore, since the idea is to evaluate the potential of features in the stock trend forecasting, therefore we diversify our experiments using both technical and fundamental features. Therefore, in the first approach, a three-stage methodology is developed while in the first step, a comprehensive investigation of all possible features which can be effective on stocks risk and return are identified. Then, in the next stage, risk and return are predicted by applying data mining techniques for the given features. Finally, we develop a hybrid algorithm, based on some filters and function-based clustering; and re-predicted the risk and return of stocks.
In the second approach, instead of using single classifiers, a fusion model is proposed based on the use of multiple diverse base classifiers that operate on a common input and a meta-classifier that learns from base classifiers’ outputs to obtain a more precise stock return and risk predictions. A set of diversity methods, including Bagging, Boosting, and AdaBoost, is applied to create diversity in classifier combinations. Moreover, the number and procedure for selecting base classifiers for fusion schemes are determined using a methodology based on dataset clustering and candidate classifiers’ accuracy.
Finally, in the third approach, a novel forecasting model for stock markets based on the wrapper ANFIS (Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System) – ICA (Imperialist Competitive Algorithm) and technical analysis of Japanese Candlestick is presented. Two approaches of Raw-based and Signal-based are devised to extract the model’s input variables and buy and sell signals are considered as output variables.
To illustrate the methodologies, for the first and second approaches, Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) data for the period from 2002 to 2012 are applied, while for the third approach, we used General Motors and Dow Jones indexes.Predicting stock prices is an essential objective in the financial world. Forecasting stock returns and their risk represents one of the most critical concerns of market decision makers. This thesis investigates the stock price forecasting with three approaches from the data mining concept and shows how different elements in the stock price can help to enhance the accuracy of our prediction. For this reason, the first and second approaches capture many fundamental indicators from the stocks and implement them as explanatory variables to do stock price classification and forecasting. In the third approach, technical features from the candlestick representation of the share prices are extracted and used to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting. In each approach, different tools and techniques from data mining and machine learning are employed to justify why the forecasting is working.
Furthermore, since the idea is to evaluate the potential of features in the stock trend forecasting, therefore we diversify our experiments using both technical and fundamental features. Therefore, in the first approach, a three-stage methodology is developed while in the first step, a comprehensive investigation of all possible features which can be effective on stocks risk and return are identified. Then, in the next stage, risk and return are predicted by applying data mining techniques for the given features. Finally, we develop a hybrid algorithm, based on some filters and function-based clustering; and re-predicted the risk and return of stocks.
In the second approach, instead of using single classifiers, a fusion model is proposed based on the use of multiple diverse base classifiers that operate on a common input and a meta-classifier that learns from base classifiers’ outputs to obtain a more precise stock return and risk predictions. A set of diversity methods, including Bagging, Boosting, and AdaBoost, is applied to create diversity in classifier combinations. Moreover, the number and procedure for selecting base classifiers for fusion schemes are determined using a methodology based on dataset clustering and candidate classifiers’ accuracy.
Finally, in the third approach, a novel forecasting model for stock markets based on the wrapper ANFIS (Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System) – ICA (Imperialist Competitive Algorithm) and technical analysis of Japanese Candlestick is presented. Two approaches of Raw-based and Signal-based are devised to extract the model’s input variables and buy and sell signals are considered as output variables.
To illustrate the methodologies, for the first and second approaches, Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) data for the period from 2002 to 2012 are applied, while for the third approach, we used General Motors and Dow Jones indexes.154 - Katedra financívyhově
Visa trial of international trade: evidence from support vector machines and neural networks
International trade depends on networking, interaction and in-person meetings which stimulate cross-border travels. The countries are seeking policies to encourage inbound mobility to support bilateral trade, tourism, and foreign direct investments. Some nations have been implementing liberal visa regimes as an important part of facilitating policies in view of security concerns. Turkey has been among the nations introducing liberal visa policies to support trade in the last decade and recorded significant increases in the volumes of exports. In this paper, we employed machine learning methodologies, Support vector machines (SVM) and Neural networks (NN), to investigate the facilitating impact of liberal visa policies on bilateral trade, using the export data from Turkey for the period of 2000–2014. The research disentangled the variables that have the strongest impact on trade utilizing SVM and NN models and exhibited that visa policies have significant impacts on the bilateral trade. More relaxed visa policies are recommended for the countries in the pursuit of increasing exports
Ensemble deep learning: A review
Ensemble learning combines several individual models to obtain better
generalization performance. Currently, deep learning models with multilayer
processing architecture is showing better performance as compared to the
shallow or traditional classification models. Deep ensemble learning models
combine the advantages of both the deep learning models as well as the ensemble
learning such that the final model has better generalization performance. This
paper reviews the state-of-art deep ensemble models and hence serves as an
extensive summary for the researchers. The ensemble models are broadly
categorised into ensemble models like bagging, boosting and stacking, negative
correlation based deep ensemble models, explicit/implicit ensembles,
homogeneous /heterogeneous ensemble, decision fusion strategies, unsupervised,
semi-supervised, reinforcement learning and online/incremental, multilabel
based deep ensemble models. Application of deep ensemble models in different
domains is also briefly discussed. Finally, we conclude this paper with some
future recommendations and research directions
REVIEW OF PREDICTION MARKET RESEARCH: GUIDELINES FOR INFORMATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH
This paper presents an analysis of prediction market (PM) research relevant to information systems. Prediction markets are (online) markets are usually not traded on existing exchanges but on future events. As an emerging research area, prediction markets have received considerable attention from several disciplines, including economics, politics, marketing, computer science, electronic commerce and etc. In information systems research, however, they have been largely ignored. This study reviewed 93 academic articles concerning prediction markets. The analysis reveals that an increasing volume of PM research has been conducted, and that research themes of these studies can be categorized into three groups, namely general introduction, theoretical work, and PM applications. Building upon this work, we argue for the importance of future prediction market research and suggest potential research targets for IS researchers
Learning Sentence-internal Temporal Relations
In this paper we propose a data intensive approach for inferring
sentence-internal temporal relations. Temporal inference is relevant for
practical NLP applications which either extract or synthesize temporal
information (e.g., summarisation, question answering). Our method bypasses the
need for manual coding by exploiting the presence of markers like after", which
overtly signal a temporal relation. We first show that models trained on main
and subordinate clauses connected with a temporal marker achieve good
performance on a pseudo-disambiguation task simulating temporal inference
(during testing the temporal marker is treated as unseen and the models must
select the right marker from a set of possible candidates). Secondly, we assess
whether the proposed approach holds promise for the semi-automatic creation of
temporal annotations. Specifically, we use a model trained on noisy and
approximate data (i.e., main and subordinate clauses) to predict
intra-sentential relations present in TimeBank, a corpus annotated rich
temporal information. Our experiments compare and contrast several
probabilistic models differing in their feature space, linguistic assumptions
and data requirements. We evaluate performance against gold standard corpora
and also against human subjects
Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes and human birth
We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically
different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms
involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for
prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials,
great earthquakes, turbulence and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial
crashes and human parturition (birth).Comment: Latex document of 22 pages including 6 ps figures, in press in PNA
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