Forecasting and Forecast Combination in Airline Revenue Management Applications

Predicting a variable for a future point in time helps planning for unknown future situations and is common practice in many areas such as economics, finance, manufacturing, weather and natural sciences. This paper investigates and compares approaches to forecasting and forecast combination that can be applied to service industry in general and to airline industry in particular. Furthermore, possibilities to include additionally available data like passenger-based information are discussed

Neural networks and support vector machines based bio-activity classification

Classification of various compounds into their respective biological activity classes is important in drug discovery applications from an early phase virtual compound filtering and screening point of view. In this work two types of neural networks, multi layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis functions (RBF), and support vector machines (SVM) were employed for the classification of three types of biologically active enzyme inhibitors. Both of the networks were trained with back propagation learning method with chemical compounds whose active inhibition properties were previously known. A group of topological indices, selected with the help of principle component analysis (PCA) were used as descriptors. The results of all the three classification methods show that the performance of both the neural networks is better than the SVM

Forecasting Long-Term Government Bond Yields: An Application of Statistical and AI Models

This paper evaluates several artificial intelligence and classical algorithms on their ability of forecasting the monthly yield of the US 10-year Treasury bonds from a set of four economic indicators. Due to the complexity of the prediction problem, the task represents a challenging test for the algorithms under evaluation. At the same time, the study is of particular significance for the important and paradigmatic role played by the US market in the world economy. Four data-driven artificial intelligence approaches are considered, namely, a manually built fuzzy logic model, a machine learned fuzzy logic model, a self-organising map model and a multi-layer perceptron model. Their performance is compared with the performance of two classical approaches, namely, a statistical ARIMA model and an econometric error correction model. The algorithms are evaluated on a complete series of end-month US 10-year Treasury bonds yields and economic indicators from 1986:1 to 2004:12. In terms of prediction accuracy and reliability of the modelling procedure, the best results are obtained by the three parametric regression algorithms, namely the econometric, the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron model. Due to the sparseness of the learning data samples, the manual and the automatic fuzzy logic approaches fail to follow with adequate precision the range of variations of the US 10-year Treasury bonds. For similar reasons, the self-organising map model gives an unsatisfactory performance. Analysis of the results indicates that the econometric model has a slight edge over the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron models. This suggests that pure data-driven induction may not fully capture the complicated mechanisms ruling the changes in interest rates. Overall, the prediction accuracy of the best models is only marginally better than the prediction accuracy of a basic one-step lag predictor. This result highlights the difficulty of the modelling task and, in general, the difficulty of building reliable predictors for financial markets.interest rates; forecasting; neural networks; fuzzy logic.

Solution of Dual Fuzzy Equations Using a New Iterative Method

In this paper, a new hybrid scheme based on learning algorithm of fuzzy neural network (FNN) is offered in order to extract the approximate solution of fully fuzzy dual polynomials (FFDPs). Our FNN in this paper is a five-layer feed-back FNN with the identity activation function. The input-output relation of each unit is defined by the extension principle of Zadeh. The output from this neural network, which is also a fuzzy number, is numerically compared with the target output. The comparison of the feed-back FNN method with the feed-forward FNN method shows that the less error is observed in the feed-back FNN method. An example based on applications are given to illustrate the concepts, which are discussed in this paper

An Incremental Construction of Deep Neuro Fuzzy System for Continual Learning of Non-stationary Data Streams

Existing FNNs are mostly developed under a shallow network configuration having lower generalization power than those of deep structures. This paper proposes a novel self-organizing deep FNN, namely DEVFNN. Fuzzy rules can be automatically extracted from data streams or removed if they play limited role during their lifespan. The structure of the network can be deepened on demand by stacking additional layers using a drift detection method which not only detects the covariate drift, variations of input space, but also accurately identifies the real drift, dynamic changes of both feature space and target space. DEVFNN is developed under the stacked generalization principle via the feature augmentation concept where a recently developed algorithm, namely gClass, drives the hidden layer. It is equipped by an automatic feature selection method which controls activation and deactivation of input attributes to induce varying subsets of input features. A deep network simplification procedure is put forward using the concept of hidden layer merging to prevent uncontrollable growth of dimensionality of input space due to the nature of feature augmentation approach in building a deep network structure. DEVFNN works in the sample-wise fashion and is compatible for data stream applications. The efficacy of DEVFNN has been thoroughly evaluated using seven datasets with non-stationary properties under the prequential test-then-train protocol. It has been compared with four popular continual learning algorithms and its shallow counterpart where DEVFNN demonstrates improvement of classification accuracy. Moreover, it is also shown that the concept drift detection method is an effective tool to control the depth of network structure while the hidden layer merging scenario is capable of simplifying the network complexity of a deep network with negligible compromise of generalization performance.Comment: This paper has been published in IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy System

Identifying Real Estate Opportunities using Machine Learning

The real estate market is exposed to many fluctuations in prices because of existing correlations with many variables, some of which cannot be controlled or might even be unknown. Housing prices can increase rapidly (or in some cases, also drop very fast), yet the numerous listings available online where houses are sold or rented are not likely to be updated that often. In some cases, individuals interested in selling a house (or apartment) might include it in some online listing, and forget about updating the price. In other cases, some individuals might be interested in deliberately setting a price below the market price in order to sell the home faster, for various reasons. In this paper, we aim at developing a machine learning application that identifies opportunities in the real estate market in real time, i.e., houses that are listed with a price substantially below the market price. This program can be useful for investors interested in the housing market. We have focused in a use case considering real estate assets located in the Salamanca district in Madrid (Spain) and listed in the most relevant Spanish online site for home sales and rentals. The application is formally implemented as a regression problem that tries to estimate the market price of a house given features retrieved from public online listings. For building this application, we have performed a feature engineering stage in order to discover relevant features that allows for attaining a high predictive performance. Several machine learning algorithms have been tested, including regression trees, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machines and neural networks, identifying advantages and handicaps of each of them.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures, 5 table

Neuro-Fuzzy Computing System with the Capacity of Implementation on Memristor-Crossbar and Optimization-Free Hardware Training

In this paper, first we present a new explanation for the relation between logical circuits and artificial neural networks, logical circuits and fuzzy logic, and artificial neural networks and fuzzy inference systems. Then, based on these results, we propose a new neuro-fuzzy computing system which can effectively be implemented on the memristor-crossbar structure. One important feature of the proposed system is that its hardware can directly be trained using the Hebbian learning rule and without the need to any optimization. The system also has a very good capability to deal with huge number of input-out training data without facing problems like overtraining.Comment: 16 pages, 11 images, submitted to IEEE Trans. on Fuzzy system

On the role of pre and post-processing in environmental data mining

The quality of discovered knowledge is highly depending on data quality. Unfortunately real data use to contain noise, uncertainty, errors, redundancies or even irrelevant information. The more complex is the reality to be analyzed, the higher the risk of getting low quality data. Knowledge Discovery from Databases (KDD) offers a global framework to prepare data in the right form to perform correct analyses. On the other hand, the quality of decisions taken upon KDD results, depend not only on the quality of the results themselves, but on the capacity of the system to communicate those results in an understandable form. Environmental systems are particularly complex and environmental users particularly require clarity in their results. In this paper some details about how this can be achieved are provided. The role of the pre and post processing in the whole process of Knowledge Discovery in environmental systems is discussed

Parameterizing and Aggregating Activation Functions in Deep Neural Networks

The nonlinear activation functions applied by each neuron in a neural network are essential for making neural networks powerful representational models. If these are omitted, even deep neural networks reduce to simple linear regression due to the fact that a linear combination of linear combinations is still a linear combination. In much of the existing literature on neural networks, just one or two activation functions are selected for the entire network, even though the use of heterogenous activation functions has been shown to produce superior results in some cases. Even less often employed are activation functions that can adapt their nonlinearities as network parameters along with standard weights and biases. This dissertation presents a collection of papers that advance the state of heterogenous and parameterized activation functions. Contributions of this dissertation include three novel parametric activation functions and applications of each, a study evaluating the utility of the parameters in parametric activation functions, an aggregated activation approach to modeling time-series data as an alternative to recurrent neural networks, and an improvement upon existing work that aggregates neuron inputs using product instead of sum