41,192 research outputs found
A novel Big Data analytics and intelligent technique to predict driver's intent
Modern age offers a great potential for automatically predicting the driver's intent through the increasing miniaturization of computing technologies, rapid advancements in communication technologies and continuous connectivity of heterogeneous smart objects. Inside the cabin and engine of modern cars, dedicated computer systems need to possess the ability to exploit the wealth of information generated by heterogeneous data sources with different contextual and conceptual representations. Processing and utilizing this diverse and voluminous data, involves many challenges concerning the design of the computational technique used to perform this task. In this paper, we investigate the various data sources available in the car and the surrounding environment, which can be utilized as inputs in order to predict driver's intent and behavior. As part of investigating these potential data sources, we conducted experiments on e-calendars for a large number of employees, and have reviewed a number of available geo referencing systems. Through the results of a statistical analysis and by computing location recognition accuracy results, we explored in detail the potential utilization of calendar location data to detect the driver's intentions. In order to exploit the numerous diverse data inputs available in modern vehicles, we investigate the suitability of different Computational Intelligence (CI) techniques, and propose a novel fuzzy computational modelling methodology. Finally, we outline the impact of applying advanced CI and Big Data analytics techniques in modern vehicles on the driver and society in general, and discuss ethical and legal issues arising from the deployment of intelligent self-learning cars
Forecasting Player Behavioral Data and Simulating in-Game Events
Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video
games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player
experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular,
game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events.
Simulation optimization of these events is crucial to increase player
engagement and maximize monetization. We present an experimental analysis of
several methods to forecast game-related variables, with two main aims: to
obtain accurate predictions of in-app purchases and playtime in an operational
production environment, and to perform simulations of in-game events in order
to maximize sales and playtime. Our ultimate purpose is to take a step towards
the data-driven development of games. The results suggest that, even though the
performance of traditional approaches such as ARIMA is still better, the
outcomes of state-of-the-art techniques like deep learning are promising. Deep
learning comes up as a well-suited general model that could be used to forecast
a variety of time series with different dynamic behaviors
Structuring the decision process : an evaluation of methods in the structuring the decision process
This chapter examines the effectiveness of methods that are designed to provide structure and support to decision making. Those that are primarily aimed at individual decision makers are examined first and then attention is turned to groups. In each case weaknesses of unaided decision making are identified and how successful the application of formal methods is likely to be in mitigating these weaknesses is assessed
Multi-agent knowledge integration mechanism using particle swarm optimization
This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V.Unstructured group decision-making is burdened with several central difficulties: unifying the knowledge of multiple experts in an unbiased manner and computational inefficiencies. In addition, a proper means of storing such unified knowledge for later use has not yet been established. Storage difficulties stem from of the integration of the logic underlying multiple experts' decision-making processes and the structured quantification of the impact of each opinion on the final product. To address these difficulties, this paper proposes a novel approach called the multiple agent-based knowledge integration mechanism (MAKIM), in which a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is used as a knowledge representation and storage vehicle. In this approach, we use particle swarm optimization (PSO) to adjust causal relationships and causality coefficients from the perspective of global optimization. Once an optimized FCM is constructed an agent based model (ABM) is applied to the inference of the FCM to solve real world problem. The final aggregate knowledge is stored in FCM form and is used to produce proper inference results for other target problems. To test the validity of our approach, we applied MAKIM to a real-world group decision-making problem, an IT project risk assessment, and found MAKIM to be statistically robust.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea
Social Attention: Modeling Attention in Human Crowds
Robots that navigate through human crowds need to be able to plan safe,
efficient, and human predictable trajectories. This is a particularly
challenging problem as it requires the robot to predict future human
trajectories within a crowd where everyone implicitly cooperates with each
other to avoid collisions. Previous approaches to human trajectory prediction
have modeled the interactions between humans as a function of proximity.
However, that is not necessarily true as some people in our immediate vicinity
moving in the same direction might not be as important as other people that are
further away, but that might collide with us in the future. In this work, we
propose Social Attention, a novel trajectory prediction model that captures the
relative importance of each person when navigating in the crowd, irrespective
of their proximity. We demonstrate the performance of our method against a
state-of-the-art approach on two publicly available crowd datasets and analyze
the trained attention model to gain a better understanding of which surrounding
agents humans attend to, when navigating in a crowd
A Data-driven Model for Interaction-aware Pedestrian Motion Prediction in Object Cluttered Environments
This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction
approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When
navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion
predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly
influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in
their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term
Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior
from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first
approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding
pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a
new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle
space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the
added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world
datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that
our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very
computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for
motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially
in cluttered environments.Comment: 8 pages, accepted for publication at the IEEE International
Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) 201
CASTNet: Community-Attentive Spatio-Temporal Networks for Opioid Overdose Forecasting
Opioid overdose is a growing public health crisis in the United States. This
crisis, recognized as "opioid epidemic," has widespread societal consequences
including the degradation of health, and the increase in crime rates and family
problems. To improve the overdose surveillance and to identify the areas in
need of prevention effort, in this work, we focus on forecasting opioid
overdose using real-time crime dynamics. Previous work identified various types
of links between opioid use and criminal activities, such as financial motives
and common causes. Motivated by these observations, we propose a novel
spatio-temporal predictive model for opioid overdose forecasting by leveraging
the spatio-temporal patterns of crime incidents. Our proposed model
incorporates multi-head attentional networks to learn different representation
subspaces of features. Such deep learning architecture, called
"community-attentive" networks, allows the prediction of a given location to be
optimized by a mixture of groups (i.e., communities) of regions. In addition,
our proposed model allows for interpreting what features, from what
communities, have more contributions to predicting local incidents as well as
how these communities are captured through forecasting. Our results on two
real-world overdose datasets indicate that our model achieves superior
forecasting performance and provides meaningful interpretations in terms of
spatio-temporal relationships between the dynamics of crime and that of opioid
overdose.Comment: Accepted as conference paper at ECML-PKDD 201
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