The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie

Online Learning Algorithm for Time Series Forecasting Suitable for Low Cost Wireless Sensor Networks Nodes

Time series forecasting is an important predictive methodology which can be applied to a wide range of problems. Particularly, forecasting the indoor temperature permits an improved utilization of the HVAC (Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning) systems in a home and thus a better energy efficiency. With such purpose the paper describes how to implement an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm in a low cost system-on-chip to develop an autonomous intelligent wireless sensor network. The present paper uses a Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) to monitor and forecast the indoor temperature in a smart home, based on low resources and cost microcontroller technology as the 8051MCU. An on-line learning approach, based on Back-Propagation (BP) algorithm for ANNs, has been developed for real-time time series learning. It performs the model training with every new data that arrive to the system, without saving enormous quantities of data to create a historical database as usual, i.e., without previous knowledge. Consequently to validate the approach a simulation study through a Bayesian baseline model have been tested in order to compare with a database of a real application aiming to see the performance and accuracy. The core of the paper is a new algorithm, based on the BP one, which has been described in detail, and the challenge was how to implement a computational demanding algorithm in a simple architecture with very few hardware resources.Comment: 28 pages, Published 21 April 2015 at MDPI's journal "Sensors

NILM techniques for intelligent home energy management and ambient assisted living: a review

The ongoing deployment of smart meters and different commercial devices has made electricity disaggregation feasible in buildings and households, based on a single measure of the current and, sometimes, of the voltage. Energy disaggregation is intended to separate the total power consumption into specific appliance loads, which can be achieved by applying Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) techniques with a minimum invasion of privacy. NILM techniques are becoming more and more widespread in recent years, as a consequence of the interest companies and consumers have in efficient energy consumption and management. This work presents a detailed review of NILM methods, focusing particularly on recent proposals and their applications, particularly in the areas of Home Energy Management Systems (HEMS) and Ambient Assisted Living (AAL), where the ability to determine the on/off status of certain devices can provide key information for making further decisions. As well as complementing previous reviews on the NILM field and providing a discussion of the applications of NILM in HEMS and AAL, this paper provides guidelines for future research in these topics.Agência financiadora: Programa Operacional Portugal 2020 and Programa Operacional Regional do Algarve 01/SAICT/2018/39578 Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia through IDMEC, under LAETA: SFRH/BSAB/142998/2018 SFRH/BSAB/142997/2018 UID/EMS/50022/2019 Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La-Mancha, Spain: SBPLY/17/180501/000392 Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (SOC-PLC project): TEC2015-64835-C3-2-R MINECO/FEDERinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

NASA Thesaurus Supplement: A three part cumulative supplement to the 1982 edition of the NASA Thesaurus (supplement 2)

The three part cumulative NASA Thesaurus Supplement to the 1982 edition of the NASA Thesaurus includes: part 1, hierarchical listing; part 2, access vocabulary, and part 3, deletions. The semiannual supplement gives complete hierarchies for new terms and includes new term indications for terms new to this supplement

Human Computation and Convergence

Humans are the most effective integrators and producers of information, directly and through the use of information-processing inventions. As these inventions become increasingly sophisticated, the substantive role of humans in processing information will tend toward capabilities that derive from our most complex cognitive processes, e.g., abstraction, creativity, and applied world knowledge. Through the advancement of human computation - methods that leverage the respective strengths of humans and machines in distributed information-processing systems - formerly discrete processes will combine synergistically into increasingly integrated and complex information processing systems. These new, collective systems will exhibit an unprecedented degree of predictive accuracy in modeling physical and techno-social processes, and may ultimately coalesce into a single unified predictive organism, with the capacity to address societies most wicked problems and achieve planetary homeostasis.Comment: Pre-publication draft of chapter. 24 pages, 3 figures; added references to page 1 and 3, and corrected typ

Smart Grid Technologies in Europe: An Overview

The old electricity network infrastructure has proven to be inadequate, with respect to modern challenges such as alternative energy sources, electricity demand and energy saving policies. Moreover, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) seem to have reached an adequate level of reliability and flexibility in order to support a new concept of electricity network—the smart grid. In this work, we will analyse the state-of-the-art of smart grids, in their technical, management, security, and optimization aspects. We will also provide a brief overview of the regulatory aspects involved in the development of a smart grid, mainly from the viewpoint of the European Unio