Flood Hazard Map for Portions of Southeast Louisiana

https://digitalcommons.tacoma.uw.edu/gis_projects/1029/thumbnail.jp

A comparative study of impacts and implications of climate change on tourism in IRAN and Portugal (A case study of Kish Island and Algarve Region)

Na atualidade, as preocupações com as alterações climáticas estão a crescer em grande escala, o que estimula a investigação relacionada a nível mundial, ainda mais por as mesmas terem implicações no setor do turismo. Pela revisão da literatura realizada, podemos deduzir que um dos tópicos a que os investigadores estão a dar especial atenção é o da relação entre as alterações climáticas e o sector do turismo. O interesse pelas interações entre o clima de determinado destino e o turismo aumentou, visivelmente, à escala global; no entanto, ainda há muita investigação empírica a fazer, sobretudo sobre a forma como os turistas reagem às condições meteorológicas com que se deparam e como o seu comportamento se poderá alterar de acordo com os possíveis cenários de, igualmente possíveis, alterações climáticas no futuro. Sendo o sector do turismo muito dependente das condições meteorológicas, a previsão de possíveis alterações climáticas será essencial para o desenvolvimento sustentável dos destinos turísticos a nível mundial, particularmente em regiões com elevada vulnerabilidade às alterações climáticas, ou seja, em regiões criticas. Entre os diferentes tipos de turismo, o turismo costeiro é o mais vulnerável às alterações climáticas devido às suas atividades ao ar livre, pois as mesmas só são possíveis de realizar sob determinadas condições climáticas. Tendo como um dos objetivos primordiais o contributo para a literatura relacionada com o clima, numa visão holística, escolhemos duas zonas com vulnerabilidades climáticas diferentes, em dois países diferentes, mas pouco estudada(o)s até ao momento. Para tal, nesta tese é feita uma investigação intercontinental, um estudo em Portugal e outro no Irão. Os estudos realizados nos referidos países, em ambos os casos com uma eminente vocação turística, fornecem indicadores sobre alguns, possíveis, impactos das alterações climáticas no sector do turismo em ambos os lados do mundo. Em ambas as regiões consideradas para estudo o turismo costeiro é um motor económico dominante, o que os torna ainda mais vulneráveis relativamente às alterações climáticas. Devido ao aquecimento global, os destinos, em geral, estão a lidar com diferentes tipos de impactos tais como: impactos causados por catástrofes naturais, por tempestades, por fenómenos climáticos extremos, pela erosão costeira, por movimentos de sedimentos, por ondas de calor severas e cada vez mais frequentes, pelo desmoronamento de falésias selvagens ou pelos incêndios florestais devastadores. Na ilha de Kish, para além destes fenómenos, as alterações climáticas provocaram também inundações, secas severas, escassez de água potável e consequente contaminação da mesma, por uma diminuição drástica dos caudais dos rios e por uma elevada redução do nível da água do mar Cáspio. Estas catástrofes naturais também estão muito presentes em Portugal. Os casos de estudo foram selecionados através de um processo de downscaling em que serão comparados dois pontos muito semelhantes, homogéneos ao nível das alterações climáticas e de dependência do turismo costeiro, a Ilha de Kish e a região do Algarve. Este trabalho pode classificar-se como uma investigação aplicada-descritiva, em que se utiliza uma abordagem positivista apoiada em métodos quantitativos. Nesta tese é utilizado um modelo analítico comparativo para estudar e investigar as semelhanças e diferenças entre dois estudos de caso. Com os resultados do estudo pretende-se contribuir cientificamente, de forma robusta e sustentada, no apoio às diferentes entidades do sector do turismo de forma a reduzir a vulnerabilidade das regiões e a melhorar os esforços de adaptação face à situação volátil. Após uma relevante revisão crítica da literatura foi efetuada uma avaliação exaustiva da vulnerabilidade e da adaptação do turismo às alterações climáticas, com base numa abordagem ascendente nacional, utilizando os cenários do IPCC (Painel Internacional sobre Alterações Climáticas) de forma a modelar e a prever possíveis alterações futuras em ambas as regiões consideradas nos estudos de caso. A literatura sobre o impacto das alterações climáticas foi utilizada para fazer um enquadramento para a comparação entre as duas regiões em estudo de caso, situadas nos extremos do globo, a fim de testar um modelo comparativo mais abrangente e de modo a avaliar os impactos das alterações climáticas no turismo costeiro. Nesse sentido, e recorrendo-se a dados climáticos secundários, foi utilizado o Índice Climático do Turismo (ICT), o mais utilizado para avaliar a adequação climática de um destino em atividades turísticas gerais, para investigar os impactos das alterações climáticas no turismo costeiro das duas regiões em estudo. Além do referido, foram utilizados programas informáticos, como por exemplo a calculadora TCI e o Minitab 19, bem como testes estatísticos específicos para dados climáticos, como por exemplo o teste de tendência de Man-Kendall, o teste de declive de Sen, além do modelo do programa Lars-WG6. Acrescente-se que os testes de tendência de Mann-Kendall e o teste de declive de Sen são ferramentas disponibilizadas pelo XLSTAT.xla, suplemento do Excel. Apesar das dificuldades encontradas na obtenção de dados secundários, tanto em Portugal como no Irão, conseguiram-se fazer avaliações fiáveis e desenhar cenários para 2050 e para 2100 confiáveis. Os resultados obtidos mostram que, apesar dos impactos das alterações climáticas em cadeia, a maioria dos turistas continuará a viajar para a região do Algarve e para a Ilha de Kish, mas não durante as épocas altas. No essencial, os turistas manterão a sua fidelidade às regiões, contudo poderão alterar de época, o que poderá ser um, possível, bom indicador pois poderá suavizar sazonalidades intrínsecas às referidas regiões. Por outro lado, a investigação também indicia que as alterações climáticas poderão influenciar a escolha do destino, mas em menor escala. Tal como referido anteriormente, estes resultados contribuem para identificar os impactos potencialmente positivos e negativos das alterações climáticas em ambas as regiões de estudo de caso, o que permitirá aos gestores de destinos e aos decisores políticos tomar decisões apropriadas, sustentadas e robustas, de modo a minimizar os impactos potencialmente negativos e de forma a aproveitar as potenciais oportunidades do futuro. Consequentemente, constatamos que existe uma janela de oportunidade para contribuir para a redução dos impactos mais nefastos das alterações climáticas no setor, mas que será uma oportunidade limitada no tempo, pois a degradação do planeta, em termos climáticos, não para: o mundo tem menos de uma década para mudar de rumo. As medidas a serem implementadas nos próximos anos, ou as que deixarem de ser implementadas, terão um enorme impacto no futuro do sector do turismo e no desenvolvimento de outras atividades humanas. O mundo precisa de mais recursos, sejam ao nível financeiro ou de capacidades tecnológicas, para atuar no imediato. Fundamentalmente, o que falta é um sentido de urgência, de solidariedade humana com os nossos e com os outros, em termos de futuro, ou seja, de um interesse/espirito coletivo. Este estudo recomenda que se faça mais investigação, em particular a outras regiões de outros países com as mesmas preocupações, e sejam desenvolvidos novos métodos de forma a explorar novos índices e métodos que permitam prever situações críticas futuras bem como aplicações das referidas novas tecnologias de forma a mitigar a política de alterações climáticas e a reduzir o risco acrescido dos efeitos das alterações climáticas. Os assuntos tecnológicos, os investigadores, os cientistas metrológicos e os participantes internacionais, leia-se organizações mundiais, têm por obrigação apoiar estes objetivosCurrently, the concerns about climate change are growing on a large scale, which stimulates the related research worldwide, even more so because they have implications for the tourism sector. From the literature review, one of the topics to which researchers are giving special attention is the relationship between climate change and the tourism sector. The interest in the interactions between the climate of a specific destination and the tourism sector has visibly increased on a global scale; however, there is still much empirical research to be done, especially on how tourists react to the weather conditions they encounter and how their behaviour can change according to the possible scenarios of, equally possible, climate change in the future. As the tourism sector is highly dependent on weather conditions, forecasting possible climate change will be essential for the sustainable development of tourist destinations worldwide, particularly in regions with high vulnerability to climate change, i.e., critical regions. Among the different types of tourism, coastal tourism is the most vulnerable to climate change because of its open-air activities, which can only be carried out under certain climatic conditions. Considering the contribution to the climate-related literature as one of the main objectives, in a holistic vision, we have chosen two areas with different climate vulnerabilities in two countries, but little research so far. For this, in this thesis, intercontinental research is done, one study in Portugal and another in Iran. The studies conducted in these countries, both with a prominent tourism vocation, provide indicators of some possible impacts of climate change on the tourism sector in both places. In both regions considered for the study, coastal tourism is a dominant economic driver, making them even more vulnerable to climate change. Because of global warming, the destinations, in general, are managing different types of impacts such as the impacts caused by natural disasters, storms, extreme weather phenomena, coastal erosion, sediment movements, severe and more and more frequent heat waves, the collapse of the wild cliffs or the devastating forest fires. On the island of Kish, in addition to these phenomena, climate change has also caused floods, a severe drought, a shortage of drinking water and its consequent contamination by a drastic reduction in river flows and a high reduction in the water level of the Caspian Sea. These natural disasters are also very present in Portugal. The case studies have been chosen through a downscaling process in which two very similar points, homogeneous regarding climate change and the dependence on coastal tourism, the Island of Kish and the Algarve region, will be compared. This work can be classified as applied-descriptive research using a positivist approach supported by quantitative methods. This thesis uses a comparative analytical model to study and investigate the similarities and differences between two case studies. The results of the study are intended to contribute scientifically, in a robust and sustained way, in supporting the different stakeholders of the tourism sector to reduce the vulnerability of the regions and improve adaptation efforts in the face of the volatile situation. After the relevant critical literature review, a comprehensive assessment of tourism vulnerability and adaptation to climate change was carried out based on a national bottom-up approach, using the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) scenarios in order to model and predict potential future changes in the two regions considered in the case studies. The literature concerning the impact of climate change was used to establish a framework for the comparison between the two case study regions located at the extremes of the globe, to test a more comprehensive comparative model and assess the impacts of climate change on coastal tourism. In this sense, and by using secondary climate data, the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), the most widely used to assess the climate suitability of a destination for general tourism activities, was used to investigate the impacts of climate change on the coastal tourism of the two case study regions. In addition to the above, computer programmes, such as the TCI calculator and Minitab 19, as well as statistical tests specific to climate data, such as the Man-Kendall trend test, Sen's slope test, in addition to the Lars-WG6 programme model were used. The Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope test are tools made available by XLSTAT.xla, an Excel add-in. Even with the difficulties in obtaining secondary data in Portugal and Iran, it was possible to conduct accurate assessments and draw reliable scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. The results show that, notwithstanding the climate change chain impacts, most tourists will keep travelling to the Algarve region and the Island of Kish, but not during the high seasons. In essence, the tourists will keep their loyalty to the regions. However, they may change the season, which can be a good indicator because it can smooth out the seasonality intrinsic to these regions. On the other hand, the research also indicates that climate change may influence the choice of destination, but to a more limited extent. As mentioned above, these results contribute to identifying the potential positive and negative impacts of climate change in both case study regions, which will enable destination managers and decision makers to make appropriate, sustained and robust decisions to mitigate potentially negative impacts and to take advantage of the potential opportunities of the future. Therefore, we see a time window of opportunity to contribute to reducing the most harmful impacts of climate change in the sector. However, it will be a limited opportunity in time because the planet's climatic degradation continues: the world has less than a decade to change course. The measures to be implemented in the coming years, or those that are no longer implemented, will significantly impact the future of the tourism sector and the development of other human activities. The world needs more resources, be they financial or technological capacities, to operate in the immediate future. Fundamentally, what is missing is a sense of urgency, of human solidarity with our own and others, in terms of the future, in other words, a collective interest/spirit. This study recommends that further research be done, particularly in other regions in other countries with the same preoccupations and that new methods be developed in order to explore the new indices and the methods for predicting future critical situations as well as the applications of these new technologies in order to mitigate the climate change policy and reduce the increased risk of the effects of climate change. The technological affairs, the researchers, the metrological scientists and the international participants, in other words, global organizations, should support these objectives

Climate Change: Scenarios & Impacts for Ireland (2000-LS-5.2.1-M1) ISBN:1-84095-115-X

The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) is the most authoritative assessment of global climate change to date. Produced by several hundred leading scientists in various areas of climate studies, its principal conclusions include the following: • Global average temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C since 1860 with accelerated warming apparent in the latter decades of the 20th century. A further increase of 1.5–6.0°C from 1990 to 2100 is projected, depending on how emissions of greenhouse gases increase over the period. • The 20th century was the warmest of the last millennium in the Northern Hemisphere, with the 1990s being the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year. Warming has been more pronounced at night than during the day. • Reductions in the extent of snow cover of 10% have occurred in the past 40 years, with a widespread retreat also of mountain glaciers outside the polar regions. Sea-ice thickness in the Arctic has declined by about 40% during late summer/early autumn, though no comparable reduction has taken place in winter. In the Antarctic, no similar trends have been observed. One of the most serious impacts on global sea level could result from a catastrophic failure of grounded ice in West Antarctica. This is, however, considered unlikely over the coming century. • Global sea level has risen by 0.1–0.2 m over the past century, an order of magnitude larger than the average rate over the past three millennia. A rise of approximately 0.5 m is considered likely during the period 1990–2100. • Precipitation has increased over the land masses of the temperate regions by 0.5–1.0% per decade. Frequencies of more intense rainfall events appear to be increasing also in the Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, decreases in rainfall over the tropics have been observed, though this trend has weakened in recent years. More frequent warm-phase El Niño events are occurring in the Pacific Basin. Precipitation increases are projected, particularly for winter, for middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and for Antarctica. • No significant trends in the tropical cyclone climatology have been detected. These global trends have implications for the future course of Ireland’s climate which it is judicious to anticipate. This report presents an assessment of the magnitude and likely impacts of climate change in Ireland over the course of the current century. It approaches this by establishing scenarios for future Irish climate based on global climate model projections for the middle and last quarter of the present century. These projections are then used to assess probable impacts in key sectors such as agriculture, forestry, water resources, the coastal and marine environments and on biodiversity. The purpose of the report is to firstly identify where vulnerability to climate change exists in Ireland and what adjustments are likely in the operation of environmental systems in response to such changes. In some sectors, e.g. agriculture, some new opportunities may arise. In other instances, e.g. water resource management, long-term planning strategies will be necessary to mitigate adverse impacts. Long lead times for adjustment characterise many sectors, e.g. forestry, and it is important to provide as much advance warning of likely changes as possible to enable adaptation to commence early. By anticipating change it may be possible to minimise adverse impacts and to maximise positive aspects of global climate change

Climatologies Of Severe Convective Storms In Turkey, Their Environments, And Their Impacts

Tez (Doktora) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2016Thesis (Ph.D.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, 2016Şiddetli konvektif fırtınalar, iri taneli dolu, hortum, şiddetli doğrusal rüzgârlar, şiddetli yağışlar ve yıldırımlar gibi pek çok zarar verici hadisenin kaynağıdır. Bu hava olayları dünyanın pek çok yerinde olduğu gibi ülkemizde de can ve mal kayıplarına neden olmaktadırlar. Küresel ölçekte artış gösteren sayıları ve neden oldukları can ve mal kayıpları nedeniyle şiddetli konvektif fırtınaların hem kısa vadeli olasılıksal tahminleri, hem de anlık tahminleri (nowcasting) oldukça önemlidir. Bu hadiselerin mevsimsel ve coğrafi dağılımlarının belirlenmesi, onları oluşturan çevre koşullarının anlaşılması ve tahmin edilebilmeleri için gerek şarttır. Başka bir deyişle, bu hadiselerin tahminlerinin iyileştirilebilmesi için öncelikle coğrafi, mevsimsel ve günlük dağılımlarını içeren veri setleri oluşturulmalıdır. Bu tez, öncelikli olarak “Türkiye Şiddetli Konvektif Fırtına Veri Tabanı”nın oluşturulmasına katkı sağlamaktır. Konvektif fırtınalar lokal ölçekleri nedeniyle genellikle geleneksel gözlem ağları tarafından yakalanamamaktadırlar. Bu nedenle hadiselerin oluşumlarının hangi bölgelerde yoğunlaştığını, hangi sıklıkta, hangi şiddette meydana geldiklerini, günlük ve mevsimlik dağılımlılarını belirlemek oldukça zordur. Dünyada şiddetli konvektif fırtına veri tabanlarının ve klimatolojilerin oluşturulmasının çok bileşenli ve kapsamlı çalışmalar olduğu görülmektedir. Bu hadiselere ait raporların tutulmasında başta meteoroloji birimlerinde çalışan gözlemciler olmak üzere, gönüllü meteorolojistler, medya muhabirleri gibi birçok bileşen rol oynamaktadır. Bu raporların toplanması için gazete ve haber ajansı arşivleri, sosyal medya gibi pek çok kaynaktan yararlanılabilmektedir. Bu araştırma kapsamında Türkiye iri taneli dolu ve şiddetli doğrusal rüzgâr klimatolojileri oluşturulmuştur. Tükiye’deki iri taneli dolu (≥1,5 cm) hadiselerinin farklı tipteki konvektif fırtınalarla ilişkili olduğu ve yılın her mevsiminde gözlemlenebileceklerini görülmüştür. Çok iri taneli dolu (≥4,5 cm) hadiseleri ise genellikle süperhücre fırtınaları ile ilişkilidirler. Coğrafi dağılımları ele alındığında ülke genelinde her yerde bu hadiselere rastlanabilmekle birlikte bazı küçük bölgesel farklılıklar dikkat çekmektedir. Örneğin, kış aylarında ülke genelinde seyrekleşen dolu hadiselerinin Akdeniz ve Ege kıyılarındaki frekansları nispeten yüksek kalmaya devam ettmektedir. Aylık dağılımlarına bakıldığında ise hadiselerin Mayıs ve Haziran aylarında iç ve özellikle doğu kesimlerde sıklıkla oluştukları görülmektedir. Ayrıca, öğleden sonra ve ikindi vakitleri iri taneli dolu oluşumunun en sık görüldüğü zaman dilimleridir. Şiddetli doğrusal rüzgârların büyük bir kısmı ise, yaz aylarında oluşmakla beraber bu hadiseler yılın her ayında gözlemlenebilmektedirler. En sık oluştukları ay Haziran ayı olarak belirlenmiştir. Fırtına süresi bilgisi içeren raporlar göstermektedir ki şiddetli doğrusal rüzgârların büyük bir kısmı 1 ila 3 saat arasında sürmektedir. Çalışmanın ikinci kısmı şiddetli konvektif fırtınaların toplum üzerindeki etkisine ilişkindir. Çalışma kapsamında Ocak 1930 ve Haziran 2014 yılları arasında Türkiye’de gerçekleşen yıldırıma bağlı ölüm ve yaralanmalara ait bir veri seti oluşturulmuştur. Veri seti, 898 ölüm, 150 ağır yaralanma ve 536 yaralanma ile sonuçlanan 745 olay içermektedir. Veri setinin homojen olmaması, geçmiş dönemler ve günümüz için raporlama ve mevcut raporların ulaşılabilirliği gibi farklılıklar nedeniyle uzun dönem ortalamalar anlamlı bilgi verememektedir. Geçmiş dönemdeki hadise sayısının azlığı büyük oranda elde edilebilen rapor sayısındaki azlıktan kaynaklanmaktadır. Son yıllara ait veriler ise şöyledir: 2014 yılı ölü sayısı (Ocak–Haziran) 25, yaralı sayısı 62; 2013 yılı ölü sayısı 26, yaralı sayısı 36; 2012 yılı ölü sayısı 31, yaralı sayısı 36. Yaklaşık nüfusu 73,7 milyon olan Türkiye için yıldırıma bağlı ölüm sayıları 2014 (Ocak- Haziran) için milyonda 0,34; 2013 için milyonda 0,35 ve 2012 için milyonda 0,42 olarak belirlenmiştir. Yaralı sayıları ise sırasıyla milyonda 0,86; milyonda 0,49 ve milyonda 0,49 şeklindedir. Yıldırma bağlı ölüm ve yaralanmaların ülke genelinde en sık görüldüğü dönem bahar sonu ve en az görüldüğü dönem ise kış aylarıdır. Gün içinde gerçekleşme saatlerine bakıldığında olayların büyük çoğunluğunun öğleden sonra, çok küçük bir kısmının da gece gerçekleştiği görülmektedir. Toplumun yıldırımdan en çok etkilenen kesimini tarım ve hayvancılık gibi açık hava faaliyetlerine katılanlar oluşturmaktadır. Olayların çoğu kırsal kesimde gerçekleşmiştir. Ayrıca erkek kurbanların sayısı kadın kurbanların sayısının neredeyse iki katıdır. Ağaç altında gerçekleşen ölüm ve yaralanmaların çokluğu toplumun yıldırımdan korunma yöntemleri konusunda bilinçsiz olduğunu göstermektedir. Rapora dayalı veri setleri şiddetli konvektif fırtına klimatolojileri için birincil kaynak olmakla birlikte bazı dezavantajlara sahiptirler. Konveksiyon kaynaklı zarar verici, iri dolu, hortum, şiddetli rüzgâr gibi hava hadiselerinin gözlemleri genellikle sübjektiftir. Nüfus dağılımındaki farklılıklar, günün hangi saatinde oluştukları ve raporlanmalarına ilişkin birçok parametreden şiddetle etkilenmektedirler. Bu nedenle bu hadiselerin bölgesel klimatolojilerinin oluşturulması, zaman içindeki değimleri, trendleri hakkında yargıya varmak oldukça güçtür (örn. Diffenbaugh vd. 2008). Bu konularda yorum yapabilmek için objektif yöntemlerle klimatoloji oluşturulması gerekmektedir. Dünyada objektif konvektif fırtına klimatolojilerinin oluşturulmasında reanaliz verilenin kullanıldığı görülmektedir. Daha önce yapılmış olan çalışmalar, şiddetli konvektif fırtınalar ve onlara ilişkin CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) ve düşey rüzgâr kayması gibi çevresel parametrelerin dağılımları arasında güçlü bir benzerlik olduğunu göstermektedir (örn. Brooks vd. 2003, Romero vd. 2007, Gensini ve Ashley 2011). Bu araştırmanın son aşaması olarak objektif bir şiddetli konvektif fırtına çevre koşulları klimatolojisi oluşturulmuştur. Bu klimatolojide 1979–2014 periyodu için mevcut olan ECMWF ERA-interim verisi kullanılmıştır. Klimatoloji yalnız Türkiye için değil, Avrupa, Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika’yı içeren bir domain için üretilmiştir. Surface-based Convective Available Potential Energy (SBCAPE), Mixed-layer Convective Available Potential Energy (MLCAPE), Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (MUCAPE), Surface-based Convective Inhibition Energy (SBCIN), Mixed-layer Convective Inhibition Energy (MLCIN), Most Unstable Convective Inhibition Energy (MUCIN), Surface-based Lifting Condensation Level (SBLCL), Mixed-layer (lowest 500m) Lifting Condensation Level (MLLCL), 0–6 km wind shear, 0–3 km wind shear, 0–1 km wind shear ve orta troposferik (700–500- hPa) lapse rate (LR7050) değerleri domain içerisindeki tüm grid noktalarında 35yıl için hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca kompozit parametrelerin şiddetli konvektif fırtınaları tespit etmedeki başarısının müstakil parametreler karşındaki üstünlüğü bilindiğinden (örn. Davies ve Johns 1993, Johns vd. 1993, Craven ve Brooks 2004, Gensini ve Ashley 2011) MLCAPE ve 0–6 km wind shear çarpımlarına dayalı bir parametre yardımıyla şiddetli konvektif fırtınalarının bu coğrafyadaki proxy dağılımları incelenmiştir. Bölge üzerindeki CAPE dağılım paternlerinde ITCZ, Akdeniz, Kızıl Deniz ve Umman Denizi’nin yoğun etkisi görülmektedir. Bu etki sadece denizler üzerinde sınırlı kalmayıp, bu denizlere kıyısı olan karalar üzerinde de gerçekleşmektedir. CAPE değerlerinin mevsimsel salınımı çok belirgin bir döngü sergilemektedir. En yüksek CAPE değerleri yazın, en düşük CAPE değerleri ise kışın mevcuttur. Geçiş mevsimlerine bakıldığında CAPE değerlerinin Akdeniz, Kızıl Deniz, Umman Denizi ve çevrelerinde sonbaharda ilkbahara oranla daha yüksek olduğu görülür. Bu büyük su kütleleri yazın gerçekleşen maksimum seviyedeki güneşlenmenin ardından haftalarca sıcak kalarak sonbaharda bölge için önemli bir ısı ve nem kaynağı teşkil eder ve yüksek CAPE değerlerine neden olurlar. Bu etki, yüksek enlemlerinden dolayı yazın daha az ısınan Karadeniz ve Hazar Denizi’nin güney kesimlerinde de az da olsa görülür. En yüksek 0–6 km rüzgâr kayması değerleri ise kuvvetlenen jet rüzgârlarına bağlı olarak kış aylarında jeti takip eden bir kuşak üzerinde görülür. Domain içerisinde şiddetli konvektif fırtına oluşumu için en önemli bileşenleri teşkil eden yüksek CAPE değerleri ve yüksek rüzgâr kayması değerlerinin kesişiminin gerçekleşmesinin en muhtemel olduğu dönem bahar ayrında ve Güney Avrupa, Kuzey Afrika ve Türkiye’yi içeren zonal bir kuşak üzerindedir. Somali ve Umman Deniz’i üzerinde Haziran’dan Eylül’e kadar gözlemlenen ve Somali aşağı seviye jeti ile ilişkili olan ekstrem 0–1 km rüzgar kayması değerleri aynı aylarda bölgede gözlemlenen yüksek CAPE değerleri düşünüldüğünde oldukça dikkat çekicidir. Ayrıca, konvektif fırtına çevre koşullarının mevsimsel ve coğrafi dağılımlarının Türkiye hortum ve iri taneli dolu klimatolojileri ve mevcut gök gürültülü fırtına gözlemleri ile oldukça uyumlu olduğu görülmektedir.Severe convection is responsible for many hazardous events such as large hail, tornadoes, severe non-tornadic winds, heavy rainfalls and lightnings. These events cause loss of lives and damage to property in Turkey. Considering their effects on life and property and the global increasing trends of them, both short range probabilistic forecasting and nowcasting of these local storms are significant, however challenging issues. Defining the spatial and temporal distributions of these events is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting the environmental conditions that are favorable for them. In other words, knowledge on geographical, seasonal and daily distribution of severe convective storms is an essential need for improving abilities of forecast society. This thesis contributes the building of ‘Storm Data of Turkey’ as its first step. Convective storms are local scale events. Because of their small scales, conventional observational networks are not capable to catch all of them. Therefore, creating a storm database requires too much effort and collaborative working. Many parties, such as meteorological service observers, voluntary observer networks, and general public take part in reporting of these storms. Official records, newspapers and news agency archives, social media are good sources for collecting these reports. This dissertation presents report-based climatologies of severe convection related events, specifically severe hail and severe non-tornadic winds in Turkey. The severe hail climatology part of the reseach shows that severe hail (≥1.5 cm) is observed to be associated with a variety of thunderstorm types in Turkey and can occur in any season of the year. However, very large (≥4.5 cm) hail is usually associated with supercell storms. All parts of the country are vulnerable. The largest hailstones exceed 5 cm in diameter and approach 1 kg in mass. Severe hail in Turkey is most likely in May and June, especially in interior parts of the country. Severe hail is least likely in the winter, though when it occurs in winter, it is most likely along the southern and western coasts. The afternoon and early evening hours are the most favorable time of the day for severe hail. Seasonal and monthly distribution of severe nontornadic convective wind events shows that although the big portion of this events (51%) occur in summer they can occur in any time of year. They are most frequent in June, 33% of all events occurred in this month and 15% in September. According to the reports including storm duration information, only two of them were longer than six hours and most of them continued for 1 to 3 hours (42%). Second outcome of this research is on the impacts of severe convective storms on society. A dataset covering January 1930 to June 2014 on lightning related fatalities and injuries in Turkey is created. There were 745 incidents, resulting in 898 deaths, 150 serious injuries and 536 injuries during this period. The total number of fatalities was 31 in 2012, 26 people in 2013 and 25 people in 2014. With a Turkish population of around 73.7 million, the number of fatalities were 0.42 per million in 2012, 0.35 per million in 2013 and 0.34 per million in 2014 (January–June). The total number of human injuries was 36 in each of 2012 and 2013, and 62 in 2014. Considering the population, the rate of injuries was 0.49 per million in each of 2012 and 2013, and 0.84 per million in 2014 (January–June). Incidents were most frequent in late spring all around Turkey and were rare during winter. The majority of lightning incidents occurred during the afternoon, with fewer occurring at night. The number of incidents was higher over the highly populated western parts, especially in Istanbul and relatively lower in central and eastern Turkey. Geographical, annual and diurnal distributions of the incidents were comparable to thunderstorm and lightning observations, as well as with the report-based severe weather climatologies for Turkey. The risk of being struck by lightning was highest for the people participating outdoor activities such as farming and shepherding. The number of male victims was nearly twice the number of female victims. Almost all of the incidents occurred in rural areas. The number of victims under trees is a sign of the need for awareness campaigns. Report-based datasets are primary sources for severe convective storm climatologies. However, they have some disadvantages. Observations of hazardous, convection related local scale phenomena such as severe hail, tornadoes and damaging winds have a subjective nature. They are critically sensitive to some parameters such as population density differences, time of the day of occurrence and reporting issues (e.g., subjective estimation of wind speed by non-expert human observers and alike). Due to subjective nature of their observations, regional climatology, temporal variability and trends of these phenomena have been difficult to be defined properly (e.g., Diffenbaugh et al. 2008). Thus, climate change assessments have avoided from certain judgments about the effects of anthropogenic global warming on current and future variability of these phenomena (e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007). Usage of numerical models is an alternative method to get rid of mentioned disadvantages of report-based climatologies. Spatial analysis of environmental controls such as CAPE (convective available potential energy) and vertical wind shear on the global reanalysis data shows that there is a significant similarity between distribution of observed severe convective storms and these environmental controls (Brooks et al., 2003; Romero et al., 2007; Gensini and Ashley, 2011). In this thesis, an objective climatology of severe convective storm environments is established. Various environmental parameters associated with severe convective storms were calculated for a domain covering Europe, Middle East and North Africa for the 35-year period of 1979–2014 using ERA-interim data. Specifically, surface-based convective available potential energy (SBCAPE), mixed-layer (lowest 500m) convective available potential energy (MLCAPE), most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE), surface-based convective inhibition energy (SBCIN), mixed-layer (lowest 500m) convective inhibition energy (MLCIN), most unstable convective inhibition energy (MUCIN), surface-based lifting condensation level (SBLCL), mixed-layer (lowest 500m) lifting condensation level (MLLCL), 0–6 km wind shear, 0–3 km wind shear, 0–1 km wind shear and mid-tropospheric (700–500-hPa) lapse rate (LR7050) were calculated. Previous research shows that, individual parameters did not discriminate well between severe and non-severe deep moist convection. Considering instability and shear together improves discrimination sharply (e.g., Davies and Johns 1993, Johns et al., 1993, Craven and Brooks 2004, Gensini and Ashley 2011). Therefore, proxy distribution of severe convective storms is enquired with the help of a parameter based on product of MLCAPE and deep layer shear. Results shows that the ITCZ, Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea and Arabian clearly exerts a dominating influence on the CAPE distribution patterns over the domain. Influence is not limited to directly over the seas but is noted over the coasts of these seas. Seasonal cycle of CAPE fields is very clearly defined with larger values during summer than in the winter for all over the domain. For the transition seasons, CAPE values are higher in autumn than spring over Mediterranean, Red and Arabian Seas and neighboring countries as expected. After peak summer insolation, these large water bodies remain warm for several weeks and perform as intense heat and moisture sources. This effect is slightly visible over southern parts of Black Sea and Caspian Sea due to lower insolation, related with their higher latitudes. With the strengthening of the jet stream during winter, the highest average 0–6 km wind shear values occur beneath the jet regions. Overlapping of ingredients seems most probable during spring over a zonal belt including southern Europe, northern Africa and Turkey. Another finding is large 0–1 km wind shear values over the Arabian Sea and Somalia from June to September, related to the Somalia low-level jet. This region is notable considering the extreme SBCAPE values available at that time of the year together with these large wind-shear values. Seasonal and geographical distributions of the environments over Turkey are compatible with report-based severe weather climatologies of Turkey. The long-term variations in severe convective storm environments are worthy of future study.DoktoraPh.D

Projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices over CORDEX-MENA domain

In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature-and precipitation-based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature-and precipitation-based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.Publisher's Versio

Climate Change: Scenarios & Impacts for Ireland (2000-LS-5.2.1-M1) ISBN:1-84095-115-X

The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) is the most authoritative assessment of global climate change to date. Produced by several hundred leading scientists in various areas of climate studies, its principal conclusions include the following: • Global average temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C since 1860 with accelerated warming apparent in the latter decades of the 20th century. A further increase of 1.5–6.0°C from 1990 to 2100 is projected, depending on how emissions of greenhouse gases increase over the period. • The 20th century was the warmest of the last millennium in the Northern Hemisphere, with the 1990s being the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year. Warming has been more pronounced at night than during the day. • Reductions in the extent of snow cover of 10% have occurred in the past 40 years, with a widespread retreat also of mountain glaciers outside the polar regions. Sea-ice thickness in the Arctic has declined by about 40% during late summer/early autumn, though no comparable reduction has taken place in winter. In the Antarctic, no similar trends have been observed. One of the most serious impacts on global sea level could result from a catastrophic failure of grounded ice in West Antarctica. This is, however, considered unlikely over the coming century. • Global sea level has risen by 0.1–0.2 m over the past century, an order of magnitude larger than the average rate over the past three millennia. A rise of approximately 0.5 m is considered likely during the period 1990–2100. • Precipitation has increased over the land masses of the temperate regions by 0.5–1.0% per decade. Frequencies of more intense rainfall events appear to be increasing also in the Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, decreases in rainfall over the tropics have been observed, though this trend has weakened in recent years. More frequent warm-phase El Niño events are occurring in the Pacific Basin. Precipitation increases are projected, particularly for winter, for middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and for Antarctica. • No significant trends in the tropical cyclone climatology have been detected. These global trends have implications for the future course of Ireland’s climate which it is judicious to anticipate. This report presents an assessment of the magnitude and likely impacts of climate change in Ireland over the course of the current century. It approaches this by establishing scenarios for future Irish climate based on global climate model projections for the middle and last quarter of the present century. These projections are then used to assess probable impacts in key sectors such as agriculture, forestry, water resources, the coastal and marine environments and on biodiversity. The purpose of the report is to firstly identify where vulnerability to climate change exists in Ireland and what adjustments are likely in the operation of environmental systems in response to such changes. In some sectors, e.g. agriculture, some new opportunities may arise. In other instances, e.g. water resource management, long-term planning strategies will be necessary to mitigate adverse impacts. Long lead times for adjustment characterise many sectors, e.g. forestry, and it is important to provide as much advance warning of likely changes as possible to enable adaptation to commence early. By anticipating change it may be possible to minimise adverse impacts and to maximise positive aspects of global climate change

Climate Change: Scenarios & Impacts for Ireland (2000-LS-5.2.1-M1) ISBN:1-84095-115-X

The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) is the most authoritative assessment of global climate change to date. Produced by several hundred leading scientists in various areas of climate studies, its principal conclusions include the following: • Global average temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C since 1860 with accelerated warming apparent in the latter decades of the 20th century. A further increase of 1.5–6.0°C from 1990 to 2100 is projected, depending on how emissions of greenhouse gases increase over the period. • The 20th century was the warmest of the last millennium in the Northern Hemisphere, with the 1990s being the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year. Warming has been more pronounced at night than during the day. • Reductions in the extent of snow cover of 10% have occurred in the past 40 years, with a widespread retreat also of mountain glaciers outside the polar regions. Sea-ice thickness in the Arctic has declined by about 40% during late summer/early autumn, though no comparable reduction has taken place in winter. In the Antarctic, no similar trends have been observed. One of the most serious impacts on global sea level could result from a catastrophic failure of grounded ice in West Antarctica. This is, however, considered unlikely over the coming century. • Global sea level has risen by 0.1–0.2 m over the past century, an order of magnitude larger than the average rate over the past three millennia. A rise of approximately 0.5 m is considered likely during the period 1990–2100. • Precipitation has increased over the land masses of the temperate regions by 0.5–1.0% per decade. Frequencies of more intense rainfall events appear to be increasing also in the Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, decreases in rainfall over the tropics have been observed, though this trend has weakened in recent years. More frequent warm-phase El Niño events are occurring in the Pacific Basin. Precipitation increases are projected, particularly for winter, for middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and for Antarctica. • No significant trends in the tropical cyclone climatology have been detected. These global trends have implications for the future course of Ireland’s climate which it is judicious to anticipate. This report presents an assessment of the magnitude and likely impacts of climate change in Ireland over the course of the current century. It approaches this by establishing scenarios for future Irish climate based on global climate model projections for the middle and last quarter of the present century. These projections are then used to assess probable impacts in key sectors such as agriculture, forestry, water resources, the coastal and marine environments and on biodiversity. The purpose of the report is to firstly identify where vulnerability to climate change exists in Ireland and what adjustments are likely in the operation of environmental systems in response to such changes. In some sectors, e.g. agriculture, some new opportunities may arise. In other instances, e.g. water resource management, long-term planning strategies will be necessary to mitigate adverse impacts. Long lead times for adjustment characterise many sectors, e.g. forestry, and it is important to provide as much advance warning of likely changes as possible to enable adaptation to commence early. By anticipating change it may be possible to minimise adverse impacts and to maximise positive aspects of global climate change