Dynamical system analysis and forecasting of deformation produced by an earthquake fault

We present a method of constructing low-dimensional nonlinear models describing the main dynamical features of a discrete 2D cellular fault zone, with many degrees of freedom, embedded in a 3D elastic solid. A given fault system is characterized by a set of parameters that describe the dynamics, rheology, property disorder, and fault geometry. Depending on the location in the system parameter space we show that the coarse dynamics of the fault can be confined to an attractor whose dimension is significantly smaller than the space in which the dynamics takes place. Our strategy of system reduction is to search for a few coherent structures that dominate the dynamics and to capture the interaction between these coherent structures. The identification of the basic interacting structures is obtained by applying the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to the surface deformations fields that accompany strike-slip faulting accumulated over equal time intervals. We use a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) architecture for the identification of the system dynamics projected onto the subspace (model space) spanned by the most energetic coherent structures. The ANN is trained using a standard back-propagation algorithm to predict (map) the values of the observed model state at a future time given the observed model state at the present time. This ANN provides an approximate, large scale, dynamical model for the fault.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figure

Investigating Cepheid ℓ\ell Carinae's Cycle-to-cycle Variations via Contemporaneous Velocimetry and Interferometry

Baade-Wesselink-type (BW) techniques enable geometric distance measurements of Cepheid variable stars in the Galaxy and the Magellanic clouds. The leading uncertainties involved concern projection factors required to translate observed radial velocities (RVs) to pulsational velocities and recently discovered modulated variability. We carried out an unprecedented observational campaign involving long-baseline interferometry (VLTI/PIONIER) and spectroscopy (Euler/Coralie) to search for modulated variability in the long-period (P $\sim$ 35.5 d) Cepheid Carinae. We determine highly precise angular diameters from squared visibilities and investigate possible differences between two consecutive maximal diameters, $\Delta_{\rm{max}} \Theta$. We characterize the modulated variability along the line-of-sight using 360 high-precision RVs. Here we report tentative evidence for modulated angular variability and confirm cycle-to-cycle differences of $\ell$ Carinae's RV variability. Two successive maxima yield $\Delta_{\rm{max}} \Theta$ = 13.1 $\pm$ 0.7 (stat.) {\mu}as for uniform disk models and 22.5 $\pm$ 1.4 (stat.) {\mu}as (4% of the total angular variation) for limb-darkened models. By comparing new RVs with 2014 RVs we show modulation to vary in strength. Barring confirmation, our results suggest the optical continuum (traced by interferometry) to be differently affected by modulation than gas motions (traced by spectroscopy). This implies a previously unknown time-dependence of projection factors, which can vary by 5% between consecutive cycles of expansion and contraction. Additional interferometric data are required to confirm modulated angular diameter variations. By understanding the origin of modulated variability and monitoring its long-term behavior, we aim to improve the accuracy of BW distances and further the understanding of stellar pulsations.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 19 pages, 13 figures, 10 table

Exploratory Analysis of Functional Data via Clustering and Optimal Segmentation

We propose in this paper an exploratory analysis algorithm for functional data. The method partitions a set of functions into $K$ clusters and represents each cluster by a simple prototype (e.g., piecewise constant). The total number of segments in the prototypes, $P$, is chosen by the user and optimally distributed among the clusters via two dynamic programming algorithms. The practical relevance of the method is shown on two real world datasets

An Optimal Linear Time Algorithm for Quasi-Monotonic Segmentation

Monotonicity is a simple yet significant qualitative characteristic. We consider the problem of segmenting a sequence in up to K segments. We want segments to be as monotonic as possible and to alternate signs. We propose a quality metric for this problem using the l_inf norm, and we present an optimal linear time algorithm based on novel formalism. Moreover, given a precomputation in time O(n log n) consisting of a labeling of all extrema, we compute any optimal segmentation in constant time. We compare experimentally its performance to two piecewise linear segmentation heuristics (top-down and bottom-up). We show that our algorithm is faster and more accurate. Applications include pattern recognition and qualitative modeling.Comment: This is the extended version of our ICDM'05 paper (arXiv:cs/0702142

A Model-Based Frequency Constraint for Mining Associations from Transaction Data

Mining frequent itemsets is a popular method for finding associated items in databases. For this method, support, the co-occurrence frequency of the items which form an association, is used as the primary indicator of the associations's significance. A single user-specified support threshold is used to decided if associations should be further investigated. Support has some known problems with rare items, favors shorter itemsets and sometimes produces misleading associations. In this paper we develop a novel model-based frequency constraint as an alternative to a single, user-specified minimum support. The constraint utilizes knowledge of the process generating transaction data by applying a simple stochastic mixture model (the NB model) which allows for transaction data's typically highly skewed item frequency distribution. A user-specified precision threshold is used together with the model to find local frequency thresholds for groups of itemsets. Based on the constraint we develop the notion of NB-frequent itemsets and adapt a mining algorithm to find all NB-frequent itemsets in a database. In experiments with publicly available transaction databases we show that the new constraint provides improvements over a single minimum support threshold and that the precision threshold is more robust and easier to set and interpret by the user

Measuring information-transfer delays

In complex networks such as gene networks, traffic systems or brain circuits it is important to understand how long it takes for the different parts of the network to effectively influence one another. In the brain, for example, axonal delays between brain areas can amount to several tens of milliseconds, adding an intrinsic component to any timing-based processing of information. Inferring neural interaction delays is thus needed to interpret the information transfer revealed by any analysis of directed interactions across brain structures. However, a robust estimation of interaction delays from neural activity faces several challenges if modeling assumptions on interaction mechanisms are wrong or cannot be made. Here, we propose a robust estimator for neuronal interaction delays rooted in an information-theoretic framework, which allows a model-free exploration of interactions. In particular, we extend transfer entropy to account for delayed source-target interactions, while crucially retaining the conditioning on the embedded target state at the immediately previous time step. We prove that this particular extension is indeed guaranteed to identify interaction delays between two coupled systems and is the only relevant option in keeping with Wiener’s principle of causality. We demonstrate the performance of our approach in detecting interaction delays on finite data by numerical simulations of stochastic and deterministic processes, as well as on local field potential recordings. We also show the ability of the extended transfer entropy to detect the presence of multiple delays, as well as feedback loops. While evaluated on neuroscience data, we expect the estimator to be useful in other fields dealing with network dynamics

Space syntax and spatial cognition: or why the axial line?

200

LABOR MARKET BEHAVIOR IN WASHINGTON: A COINTEGRATION APPROACH

In recent years, the research that investigates impact of employment on other labor related variables has a prominent place in regional science. Generally, it is well understood that new business investment brings changes in population, increased labor force participation rate and migration of new residents. There is mixed research results regarding the extent that new migrants tend to account for new employment. Bartik (1993) found that about one-quarter of the new jobs go to local workers because of the increase in the labor force participation rates of local residents in the long run. He considered the long run effects by estimating the effects of 1% job growth in a certain period on the labor force participation rate seventeen years after the period. In contrast Blanchard and Katz's (1992) research reaches the opposite conclusion - in five to seven years the employment response consists entirely of the migration of new migrants. Their finding is that long-run effect of the job growth on the labor force participation rate is negligible. In this study, from the cointegration time series analysis, we found a long run equilibrium relationship among population, labor force participation rate and employment, in which population is positively related to employment and negatively related to labor force participation rate. The long run effect of a unit change of labor force participation rate (1%) is a decrease of 73,880 in population and the long run effect of a unit change in employment (1000) is an increase of 2,190 in population. We decomposed the time series into stationary components and non-stationary components. The pattern of the stationary component of population is quite similar to that of labor force participation rate while that of employment shows a different fluctuation. From the decomposition, it was obvious that the pattern of stationary component of employment and net migration is quite similar, which means net migration is the short run, temporary response to employment change. The patterns of three years delayed stationary components of population are similar to that of employment and net migration, and the plots correspond to changing economic conditions. According to the change in economic conditions population responds three years later than employment and net migration. We interpreted the non-stationary component of labor force participation rate as reflecting the increasing trend of labor force participation rate in Washington mainly due to a considerable increase in the female labor force participation. The impulse responses of population, employment and labor force participation rate to a one standard deviation shock in employment show permanent increase effects. They settle at different equilibrium value after long term periods. The response of the labor force participation rate to an impulse in employment supports Bartik's finding. Obviously the result is the opposite of Blanchard-Katz's finding that the long-run effect of job growth on the labor force participation rate is negligible. However, since the effect of population is also significantly high, we doubt that the effect of increase in labor force participation rate according to the employment shock covers only local resident labor force.Labor and Human Capital,

Practical implementation of nonlinear time series methods: The TISEAN package

Nonlinear time series analysis is becoming a more and more reliable tool for the study of complicated dynamics from measurements. The concept of low-dimensional chaos has proven to be fruitful in the understanding of many complex phenomena despite the fact that very few natural systems have actually been found to be low dimensional deterministic in the sense of the theory. In order to evaluate the long term usefulness of the nonlinear time series approach as inspired by chaos theory, it will be important that the corresponding methods become more widely accessible. This paper, while not a proper review on nonlinear time series analysis, tries to make a contribution to this process by describing the actual implementation of the algorithms, and their proper usage. Most of the methods require the choice of certain parameters for each specific time series application. We will try to give guidance in this respect. The scope and selection of topics in this article, as well as the implementational choices that have been made, correspond to the contents of the software package TISEAN which is publicly available from http://www.mpipks-dresden.mpg.de/~tisean . In fact, this paper can be seen as an extended manual for the TISEAN programs. It fills the gap between the technical documentation and the existing literature, providing the necessary entry points for a more thorough study of the theoretical background.Comment: 27 pages, 21 figures, downloadable software at http://www.mpipks-dresden.mpg.de/~tisea