Criteria Uncertainty in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis of Sustainable Manufacturing Systems

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a discipline used by decision makers to evaluate conflicting features when choosing among alternatives. MCDA methods are applied in the field of sustainable manufacturing to weigh the importance of traditional criteria when compared to sustainability indicators. However, a recurring issue in MCDA is the uncertainty in the assessments of alternatives. In this project, a novel framework to deal with uncertainty in MCDA has been developed. It uses scenario planning to get optimistic and pessimistic assessments for the different alternatives. Then, assigning probabilities to the scenarios and applying COPRAS-N, an introduced modification of COPRAS-G, 11 weighted scenarios are calculated. Finally, the relative significance and ranking of each alternative are graphed according to the weighted scenarios so that their evolution and the different situations are represented. With the presented approach, internal and external uncertainties can be dealt with at the same time. The final decision is made by analysing the graphics and results and, if necessary, looking at the concepts of expected scenario and average performance introduced in this project. The framework has been applied to 3 case studies with a focus on sustainability found in the literature. The results show that providing a final ranking of alternatives without considering other likely scenarios may lead to wrong decisions. In fact, in Case study 1, the choice of the best alternative would have changed if the developed framework had been applied. Representing all the scenarios has proved to ensure the final decision and enable to evaluate all the possible outcomes, solving in this way the uncertainty.Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::9 - Indústria, Innovació i Infraestructur

Effect of Tuned Parameters on a LSA MCQ Answering Model

This paper presents the current state of a work in progress, whose objective is to better understand the effects of factors that significantly influence the performance of Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA). A difficult task, which consists in answering (French) biology Multiple Choice Questions, is used to test the semantic properties of the truncated singular space and to study the relative influence of main parameters. A dedicated software has been designed to fine tune the LSA semantic space for the Multiple Choice Questions task. With optimal parameters, the performances of our simple model are quite surprisingly equal or superior to those of 7th and 8th grades students. This indicates that semantic spaces were quite good despite their low dimensions and the small sizes of training data sets. Besides, we present an original entropy global weighting of answers' terms of each question of the Multiple Choice Questions which was necessary to achieve the model's success.Comment: 9 page

Strategic Risk and Reliability Assessment in the Container Liner Shipping Industry Under High Uncertainties

The container liner shipping industry (CLSI) can be defined as one consisting of a fleet of vessels that provides a fixed service at regular intervals between ports of call. It is noteworthy that the CLSI is remarkably acting as an artery in making contributions to the growth of the global economy. However, in an era of unprecedented global changes, the CLSI faces a variety of internal and external risks. Moreover, the reliability and capability of liner shipping operators (LSOs) vary under different environmental conditions. Consequently, it is important for LSOs to ensure that the safety and reliability of their internal operations as well as external environments through proactive assessment of their reliability and capability are intact. The literature indicates that disruptive events have been assessed and investigated by many researchers and practitioners whilst the root causes arising from external risks have not yet been fully identified. The aim of this research was to develop integrated frameworks for assessing risk and reliability in the CLSI under high uncertainties. As a result, three interlocking levels of analysis have been highlighted in this research: 1) business environment-based risk (BEBR), 2) organisational reliability and capability (ORC) of LSOs, and 3) punctuality of containerships. To achieve the aim, firstly, this research employed a combination of different decision-making methods (i.e. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and Evidential Reasoning (ER)) for the assessment of the BEBR. The research outcomes are providing LSOs with a powerful decision-making tool to assess the risk value of a country prior to investment and strategic decisions. In addition, LSOs are also able to regularly assess the overall level of existing BEBR in a host country prior to development of mitigation strategies that can help to minimise financial losses. Secondly, this research employs the Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Network (FBBN) method for evaluating the ORC of LSOs. By exploiting the proposed FBBN model, LSOs are able to conduct a self-evaluation of their ORC prior to the selection of a strategy for enhancing their competitive advantages in the CLSI. A significant concern in container liner shipping operations is the punctuality of containerships. Therefore, thirdly, this research concentrated on analysing and predicting the arrival punctuality of a liner vessel under dynamic environments by employing a combination of Fuzzy Rule-Base (FRB) and FBBN methods. Finally, a probabilistic model for analysing and predicting the departure punctuality of a liner vessel was generated. Accordingly, from the outcomes of this research LSOs are able to forecast their vessels’ arrival and departure punctuality and, further, tactical strategies can be implemented if a vessel is expected to be delayed. In addition, both arrival and departure punctuality models are capable of helping academic researchers and industrial practitioners to comprehend the influence of uncertain environments on the service punctuality. In order to demonstrate the practicability of the proposed methodologies and models, several real test cases were conducted by choosing the Malaysian maritime industry as a focus of study. The results obtained from these test cases have provided useful information for recommending preventive measures, improvement strategies and tactical solutions. The frameworks and models that have been proposed in this research for assessing risk and reliability of the CLSI will provide managerial insights for modelling and assessing complex systems dealing with both quantitative and qualitative criteria in a rational, reliable and transparent manner. In addition, these models have been developed in a generic sense so that they can be tailored for application in other industrial sectors

Strict Products Liability Revisited

This article examines the relationship between two concepts found throughout the law of products liability, defect and negligence. Traditional tort doctrine contends that, although they are sometimes used interchangeably, both concepts refer to quite distinct matters: the state of a product, on the one hand, and the nature of a manufacturer\u27s conduct in supplying its products, on the other. The hallmark distinction between a standard of fault and one of strict liability, it is said, is that only the former requires proof of unreasonable care, whereas both require proof of a defect. Relying on developments in the United States and in Canada, the author suggests that such claims are overly sweeping in practice. In both jurisdictions, while a decisionmaker can focus exclusively on an outcome (the defendant\u27s product) and ignore the reasons given for this result (the defendant\u27s conduct) in determining whether or not a manufacturing defect is present, negligence concepts such as cost-benefit balancing and foreseeability of risk appear inseparable from inquiries into the defectiveness of a design or warning. Regardless of the standard of liability adopted in theory, defect and negligence thus converge in two important areas of products liability. The author reviews policy considerations and two recent appellate court decisions supporting a standard of strict liability tailored to manufacturing defects. In his view, aprina fade case for manufacturer liability should exist when a plaintiff demonstrates (1) that a product is dangerously different from its intended design, (2) that the defendant is responsible for the defective product\u27s supply, and (3) that recognized damages were caused by this defect. Pursuant to their power and their duty to ensure the incremental evolution of the common law, it is argued, Canadian courts ought to openly recognize a standard of strict tort liability for manufacturing defects

健康教育としての「死生学」教育実践とその成果

The purpose of this paper is to examine the deepening understanding of students\u27 view of life, including the influences or ideas acquired after attending the lectures on death education as part of health education.The following response was distinctively found:It is doubtful whether the problem of"death" or the final stage of one\u27s life can be explored in the field of education. The mystery of"death" still remains to be explained, though problems of"life"have been clarified to a considerableextent. Thinking of death in terms of science is almost impossible, but the lectures gave us arare oPPortunity to understanding its importance. To consider the subject of death leads to the philosophical study of the essential significanceof life, and this should be the research of thanatology or the view of life and death

Value Incommensurability

Incommensurability is the impossibility to determine how two options relate to each other in terms of conventional comparative relations. This book features new research on incommensurability from philosophers who have shaped the field into what it is today, including John Broome, Ruth Chang and Wlodek Rabinowicz. The book covers four aspects relating to incommensurability. In the first part, the contributors synthesize research on the competing views of how to best explain incommensurability. Part II illustrates how incommensurability can help us deal with seemingly insurmountable problems in ethical theory and population ethics. The contributors address the Repugnant Conclusion, the Mere Addition Paradox and so-called Spectrum Arguments. The chapters in Part III outline and summarize problems caused by incommensurability for decision theory. Finally, Part IV tackles topics related to risk, uncertainty and incommensurability. Value Incommensurability: Ethics, Risk, and Decision-Making will be of interest to researchers and advanced students working in ethical theory, decision theory, action theory, and philosophy of economics

Enabling security and risk-based operation of container line supply chains under high uncertainties

Container supply chains are vulnerable to many risks. Vulnerability can be defined as an exposure to serious disturbances arising from the risks within the supply chain as well as the risks external to the supply chain. Vulnerability can also be defined as exposure to serious disturbances arising from a hazard or a threat. Containers are one of the major sources of security concerns and have been used, for example, to smuggle illegal immigrants, weapons, and drugs. The consequences of the use of a weapon of mass destruction or discovery of such a device in a container are serious. Estimates suggest that a weapon of mass destruction explosion and the resulting port closure could cost billions of dollars. The annual cost of container losses as consequences of serious disturbances arising from hazards is estimated as $500 million per year. The literature review, historical failure data, and statistical analysis in the context of containerships' accidents from a safety point of view clearly indicate that the container cargo damage, machinery failure, collision, grounding, fire/explosion, and contact are the most significant accident categories with high percentages of occurrences. Another important finding from the literature review is that the most significant basic event contributing to the supply chains' vulnerability is human error. Therefore, firstly, this research makes full use of the Evidential Reasoning (ER) advantages and further develops and extends the Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning (FER) by exploiting a conceptual and sound methodology for the assessment of a seafarer's reliability. Accordingly, control options to enhance seafarers' reliability are suggested. The proposed methodology enables and facilitates the decision makers to measure the reliability of a seafarer before his/her designation to any activities and during his/her seafaring period. Secondly, this research makes full use of the Bayesian Networks (BNs) advantages and further develops and extends the Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBNs) and a "symmetric method" by exploiting a conceptual and sound methodology for the assessment of human reliability. Furthermore a FBN model (i. e. dependency network), which is capable of illustrating the dependency among the variables, is constructed. By exploiting the proposed FBN model, a general equation for the reduction of human reliability attributable to a person's continuous hours of wakefulness, acute sleep loss and cumulative sleep debt is formulated and tested.A container supply chain includes dozens of stakeholders who can physically come into contact with containers and their contents and are potentially related with the container trade and transportation. Security-based disruptions can occur at various points along the supply chain. Experience has shown that a limited percentage of inspection, coupled with a targeted approach based on risk analysis, can provide an acceptable security level. Thus, in order not to hamper the logistics process in an intolerable manner, the number of physical checks should be chosen cautiously. Thirdly, a conceptual and sound methodology (i. e. FBN model) for evaluating a container's security score, based on the importer security filling, shipping documents, ocean or sea carriers' reliability, and the security scores of various commercial operators and premises, is developed. Accordingly, control options to avoid unnecessary delays and security scanning are suggested. Finally, a decision making model for assessing the security level of a port associated with ship/port interface and based on the security score of the ship's cargo containers, is developed. It is further suggested that regardless of scanning all import cargo containers, one realistic way to secure the supply chain, due to lack of information and number of variables, is to enhance the ocean or sea carriers' reliability through enhancing their ship staff's reliability. Accordingly a decision making model to analyse the cost and benefit (i.e. CBA) is developed

Three essays in labour economics

This thesis extends the existing literature on the response of labour markets to different types of economic shocks. First, we examine the effects of sector-specific fluctuations in job separation and job finding rates on the overall unemployment, sectoral allocation of labour and wages by solving a two-sector search and matching model with heterogeneous workers. The simulated results show how sector-specific shocks spill over the rest of the economy, causing workers to relocate between sectors in search of jobs. Inter-sectoral reallocation depends on the distribution of worker productivity in the affected sector. When an adverse shock hits a sector that attracts workers with relatively low productivity, the most productive among displaced workers move to compete for jobs in the sector with higher productivity. This offsets some of the increase in unemployment, subject to the ability of unaffected sector to employ additional workers. Next, we conduct meta-analysis to explain discrepancies between estimated effects of immigration shocks on wages in the literature. The results show that wage impact of immigration tends to be small in magnitude and negative significant. Labour market conditions at the period of study play a significant role in explaining the differences in measured impact. The estimates vary across countries and are related to the choice of modelling approach and estimators. Finally, we use EU-LFS dataset to analyse unemployment and labour market flows in Europe between 2006 and 2016. We identify the relative impact of shocks to job finding and separation rates on unemployment and investigate the role of socio-demographics, urbanisation and immigration status in shaping worker flow patterns in Europe. We find that over the studied period job losses accounted for three quarters of the rise in unemployment. The analysis of socio-demographic characteristics of the unemployed shows that young and less educated workers contributed the most to employment losses. Recent and intermediate immigrants in cities contributed to employment losses