Combining evolutionary algorithms and agent-based simulation for the development of urbanisation policies

Urban-planning authorities continually face the problem of optimising the allocation of green space over time in developing urban environments. To help in these decision-making processes, this thesis provides an empirical study of using evolutionary approaches to solve sequential decision making problems under uncertainty in stochastic environments. To achieve this goal, this work is underpinned by developing a theoretical framework based on the economic model of Alonso and the associated methodology for modelling spatial and temporal urban growth, in order to better understand the complexity inherent in this kind of system and to generate and improve relevant knowledge for the urban planning community. The model was hybridised with cellular automata and agent-based model and extended to encompass green space planning based on urban cost and satisfaction. Monte Carlo sampling techniques and the use of the urban model as a surrogate tool were the two main elements investigated and applied to overcome the noise and uncertainty derived from dealing with future trends and expectations. Once the evolutionary algorithms were equipped with these mechanisms, the problem under consideration was defined and characterised as a type of adaptive submodular. Afterwards, the performance of a non-adaptive evolutionary approach with a random search and a very smart greedy algorithm was compared and in which way the complexity that is linked with the configuration of the problem modifies the performance of both algorithms was analysed. Later on, the application of very distinct frameworks incorporating evolutionary algorithm approaches for this problem was explored: (i) an ‘offline’ approach, in which a candidate solution encodes a complete set of decisions, which is then evaluated by full simulation, and (ii) an ‘online’ approach which involves a sequential series of optimizations, each making only a single decision, and starting its simulations from the endpoint of the previous run

Land-Cover and Land-Use Study Using Genetic Algorithms, Petri Nets, and Cellular Automata

Recent research techniques, such as genetic algorithm (GA), Petri net (PN), and cellular automata (CA) have been applied in a number of studies. However, their capability and performance in land-cover land-use (LCLU) classification, change detection, and predictive modeling have not been well understood. This study seeks to address the following questions: 1) How do genetic parameters impact the accuracy of GA-based LCLU classification; 2) How do image parameters impact the accuracy of GA-based LCLU classification; 3) Is GA-based LCLU classification more accurate than the maximum likelihood classifier (MLC), iterative self-organizing data analysis technique (ISODATA), and the hybrid approach; 4) How do genetic parameters impact Petri Net-based LCLU change detection; and 5) How do cellular automata components impact the accuracy of LCLU predictive modeling. The study area, namely the Tickfaw River watershed (711mi²), is located in southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. The major datasets include time-series Landsat TM / ETM images and Digital Orthophoto Quarter Quadrangles (DOQQ’s). LCLU classification was conducted by using the GA, MLC, ISODATA, and Hybrid approach. The LCLU change was modeled by using genetic PN-based process mining technique. The process models were interpreted and input to a CA for predicting future LCLU. The major findings include: 1) GA-based LCLU classification is more accurate than the traditional approaches; 2) When genetic parameters, image parameters, or CA components are configured improperly, the accuracy of LCLU classification, the coverage of LCLU change process model, and/or the accuracy of LCLU predictive modeling will be low; 3) For GA-based LCLU classification, the recommended configuration of genetic / image parameters is generation 2000-5000, population 1000, crossover rate 69%-99%, mutation rate 0.1%-0.5%, generation gap 25%-50%, data layers 16-20, training / testing data size 10000-20000 / 5000-10000, and spatial resolution 30m-60m; 4) For genetic Petri nets-based LCLU change detection, the recommended configuration of genetic parameters is generation 500, population 300, crossover rate 59%, mutation rate 5%, and elitism rate 4%; and 5) For CA-based LCLU predictive modeling, the recommended configuration of CA components is space 6025 * 12993, state 2, von Neumann neighborhood 3 * 3, time step 2-3 years, and optimized transition rules

CellEVAC: an adaptive guidance system for crowd evacuation through behavioral optimization

A critical aspect of crowds' evacuation processes is the dynamism of individual decision making. Identifying optimal strategies at an individual level may improve both evacuation time and safety, which is essential for developing efficient evacuation systems. Here, we investigate how to favor a coordinated group dynamic through optimal exit-choice instructions using behavioral strategy optimization. We propose and evaluate an adaptive guidance system (Cell-based Crowd Evacuation, CellEVAC) that dynamically allocates colors to cells in a cellbased pedestrian positioning infrastructure, to provide efficient exit-choice indications. The operational module of CellEVAC implements an optimized discrete-choice model that integrates the influential factors that would make evacuees adapt their exit choice. To optimize the model, we used a simulation?optimization modeling framework that integrates microscopic pedestrian simulation based on the classical Social Force Model. In the majority of studies, the objective has been to optimize evacuation time. In contrast, we paid particular attention to safety by using Pedestrian Fundamental Diagrams that model the dynamics of the exit gates. CellEVAC has been tested in a simulated real scenario (Madrid Arena) under different external pedestrian flow patterns that simulate complex pedestrian interactions. Results showed that CellEVAC outperforms evacuation processes in which the system is not used, with an exponential improvement as interactions become complex. We compared our system with an existing approach based on Cartesian Genetic Programming. Our system exhibited a better overall performance in terms of safety, evacuation time, and the number of revisions of exit-choice decisions. Further analyses also revealed that Cartesian Genetic Programming generates less natural pedestrian reactions and movements than CellEVAC. The fact that the decision logic module is built upon a behavioral model seems to favor a more natural and effective response. We also found that our proposal has a positive influence on evacuations even for a low compliance rate (40%).Ministerio de Economía y Competitivida

Geosimulation and Multicriteria Modelling of Residential Land Development in the City of Tehran: A Comparative Analysis of Global and Local Models

Conventional models for simulating land-use patterns are insufficient in addressing complex dynamics of urban systems. A new generation of urban models, inspired by research on cellular automata and multi-agent systems, has been proposed to address the drawbacks of conventional modelling. This new generation of urban models is called geosimulation. Geosimulation attempts to model macro-scale patterns using micro-scale urban entities such as vehicles, homeowners, and households. The urban entities are represented by agents in the geosimulation modelling. Each type of agents has different preferences and priorities and shows different behaviours. In the land-use modelling context, the behaviour of agents is their ability to evaluate the suitability of parcels of land using a number of factors (criteria and constraints), and choose the best land(s) for a specific purpose. Multicriteria analysis provides a set of methods and procedures that can be used in the geosimulation modelling to describe the behaviours of agents. There are three main objectives of this research. First, a framework for integrating multicriteria models into geosimulation procedures is developed to simulate residential development in the City of Tehran. Specifically, the local form of multicriteria models is used as a method for modelling agents’ behaviours. Second, the framework is tested in the context of residential land development in Tehran between 1996 and 2006. The empirical research is focused on identifying the spatial patterns of land suitability for residential development taking into account the preferences of three groups of actors (agents): households, developers, and local authorities. Third, a comparative analysis of the results of the geosimulation-multicriteria models is performed. A number of global and local geosimulation-multicriteria models (scenarios) of residential development in Tehran are defined and then the results obtained by the scenarios are evaluated and examined. The output of each geosimulation-multicriteria model is compared to the results of other models and to the actual pattern of land-use in Tehran. The analysis is focused on comparing the results of the local and global geosimulation-multicriteria models. Accuracy measures and spatial metrics are used in the comparative analysis. The results suggest that, in general, the local geosimulation-multicriteria models perform better than the global methods

An Evolutionary Approach to Adaptive Image Analysis for Retrieving and Long-term Monitoring Historical Land Use from Spatiotemporally Heterogeneous Map Sources

Land use changes have become a major contributor to the anthropogenic global change. The ongoing dispersion and concentration of the human species, being at their orders unprecedented, have indisputably altered Earth’s surface and atmosphere. The effects are so salient and irreversible that a new geological epoch, following the interglacial Holocene, has been announced: the Anthropocene. While its onset is by some scholars dated back to the Neolithic revolution, it is commonly referred to the late 18th century. The rapid development since the industrial revolution and its implications gave rise to an increasing awareness of the extensive anthropogenic land change and led to an urgent need for sustainable strategies for land use and land management. By preserving of landscape and settlement patterns at discrete points in time, archival geospatial data sources such as remote sensing imagery and historical geotopographic maps, in particular, could give evidence of the dynamic land use change during this crucial period. In this context, this thesis set out to explore the potentials of retrospective geoinformation for monitoring, communicating, modeling and eventually understanding the complex and gradually evolving processes of land cover and land use change. Currently, large amounts of geospatial data sources such as archival maps are being worldwide made online accessible by libraries and national mapping agencies. Despite their abundance and relevance, the usage of historical land use and land cover information in research is still often hindered by the laborious visual interpretation, limiting the temporal and spatial coverage of studies. Thus, the core of the thesis is dedicated to the computational acquisition of geoinformation from archival map sources by means of digital image analysis. Based on a comprehensive review of literature as well as the data and proposed algorithms, two major challenges for long-term retrospective information acquisition and change detection were identified: first, the diversity of geographical entity representations over space and time, and second, the uncertainty inherent to both the data source itself and its utilization for land change detection. To address the former challenge, image segmentation is considered a global non-linear optimization problem. The segmentation methods and parameters are adjusted using a metaheuristic, evolutionary approach. For preserving adaptability in high level image analysis, a hybrid model- and data-driven strategy, combining a knowledge-based and a neural net classifier, is recommended. To address the second challenge, a probabilistic object- and field-based change detection approach for modeling the positional, thematic, and temporal uncertainty adherent to both data and processing, is developed. Experimental results indicate the suitability of the methodology in support of land change monitoring. In conclusion, potentials of application and directions for further research are given

Spatially optimised sustainable urban development

PhD ThesisTackling urbanisation and climate change requires more sustainable and resilient cities, which in turn will require planners to develop a portfolio of measures to manage climate risks such as flooding, meet energy and greenhouse gas reduction targets, and prioritise development on brownfield sites to preserve greenspace. However, the policies, strategies and measures put in place to meet such objectives can frequently conflict with each other or deliver unintended consequences, hampering long-term sustainability. For example, the densification of cities in order to reduce transport energy use can increase urban heat island effects and surface water flooding from extreme rainfall events. In order to make coherent decisions in the presence of such complex multi-dimensional spatial conflicts, urban planners require sophisticated planning tools to identify and manage potential trade-offs between the spatial strategies necessary to deliver sustainability. To achieve this aim, this research has developed a multi-objective spatial optimisation framework for the spatial planning of new residential development within cities. The implemented framework develops spatial strategies of required new residential development that minimize conflicts between multiple sustainability objectives as a result of planning policy and climate change related hazards. Five key sustainability objectives have been investigated, namely; (i) minimizing risk from heat waves, (ii) minimizing the risk from flood events, (iii) minimizing travel costs in order to reduce transport emissions, (iv) minimizing urban sprawl and (v) preventing development on existing greenspace. A review identified two optimisation algorithms as suitable for this task. Simulated Annealing (SA) is a traditional optimisation algorithm that uses a probabilistic approach to seek out a global optima by iteratively assessing a wide range of spatial configurations against the objectives under consideration. Gradual ‘cooling’, or reducing the probability of jumping to a different region of the objective space, helps the SA to converge on globally optimal spatial patterns. Genetic Algorithms (GA) evolve successive generations of solutions, by both recombining attributes and randomly mutating previous generations of solutions, to search for and converge towards superior spatial strategies. The framework works towards, and outputs, a series of Pareto-optimal spatial plans that outperform all other plans in at least one objective. This approach allows for a range of best trade-off plans for planners to choose from. ii Both SA and GA were evaluated for an initial case study in Middlesbrough, in the North East of England, and were able to identify strategies which significantly improve upon the local authority’s development plan. For example, the GA approach is able to identify a spatial strategy that reduces the travel to work distance between new development and the central business district by 77.5% whilst nullifying the flood risk to the new development. A comparison of the two optimisation approaches for the Middlesbrough case study revealed that the GA is the more effective approach. The GA is more able to escape local optima and on average outperforms the SA by 56% in in the Pareto fronts discovered whilst discovering double the number of multi-objective Pareto-optimal spatial plans. On the basis of the initial Middlesbrough case study the GA approach was applied to the significantly larger, and more computationally complex, problem of optimising spatial development plans for London in the UK – a total area of 1,572km2. The framework identified optimal strategies in less than 400 generations. The analysis showed, for example, strategies that provide the lowest heat risk (compared to the feasible spatial plans found) can be achieved whilst also using 85% brownfield land to locate new development. The framework was further extended to investigate the impact of different development and density regulations. This enabled the identification of optimised strategies, albeit at lower building density, that completely prevent any increase in urban sprawl whilst also improving the heat risk objective by 60% against a business as usual development strategy. Conversely by restricting development to brownfield the ability of the spatial plan to optimise future heat risk is reduced by 55.6% against the business as usual development strategy. The results of both case studies demonstrate the potential of spatial optimisation to provide planners with optimal spatial plans in the presence of conflicting sustainability objectives. The resulting diagnostic information provides an analytical appreciation of the sensitivity between conflicts and therefore the overall robustness of a plan to uncertainty. With the inclusion of further objectives, and qualitative information unsuitable for this type of analysis, spatial optimization can constitute a powerful decision support tool to help planners to identify spatial development strategies that satisfy multiple sustainability objectives and provide an evidence base for better decision making

Water Distribution System Computer-Aided Design by Agent Swarm Optimization

Optimal design of water distribution systems (WDS), including the sizing of components, quality control, reliability, renewal and rehabilitation strategies, etc., is a complex problem in water engineering that requires robust methods of optimization. Classical methods of optimization are not well suited for analyzing highly-dimensional, multimodal, non-linear problems, especially given inaccurate, noisy, discrete and complex data. Agent Swarm Optimization (ASO) is a novel paradigm that exploits swarm intelligence and borrows some ideas from multiagent based systems. It is aimed at supporting decisionmaking processes by solving multi-objective optimization problems. ASO offers robustness through a framework where various population-based algorithms co-exist. The ASO framework is described and used to solve the optimal design of WDS. 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(2011). Reliability and Tolerance Comparison in Water Supply Networks. Water Resources Management, 25(5), 1437-1448. doi:10.1007/s11269-010-9753-2Montalvo Arango, I. (s. f.). Diseño óptimo de sistemas de distribución de agua mediante Agent Swarm Optimization. doi:10.4995/thesis/10251/14858Montalvo, I., Izquierdo, J., Pérez-García, R., & Herrera, M. (2010). Improved performance of PSO with self-adaptive parameters for computing the optimal design of Water Supply Systems. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 23(5), 727-735. doi:10.1016/j.engappai.2010.01.015Montalvo, I., Izquierdo, J., Pérez, R., & Iglesias, P. L. (2008). A diversity-enriched variant of discrete PSO applied to the design of water distribution networks. Engineering Optimization, 40(7), 655-668. doi:10.1080/03052150802010607Montalvo, I., Izquierdo, J., Pérez, R., & Tung, M. M. (2008). Particle Swarm Optimization applied to the design of water supply systems. 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A hybrid, auto-adaptive, and rule-based multi-agent approach using evolutionary algorithms for improved searching

Selecting the most appropriate heuristic for solving a specific problem is not easy, for many reasons. This article focuses on one of these reasons: traditionally, the solution search process has operated in a given manner regardless of the specific problem being solved, and the process has been the same regardless of the size, complexity and domain of the problem. To cope with this situation, search processes should mould the search into areas of the search space that are meaningful for the problem. This article builds on previous work in the development of a multi-agent paradigm using techniques derived from knowledge discovery (data-mining techniques) on databases of so-far visited solutions. The aim is to improve the search mechanisms, increase computational efficiency and use rules to enrich the formulation of optimization problems, while reducing the search space and catering to realistic problems.Izquierdo Sebastián, J.; Montalvo Arango, I.; Campbell, E.; Pérez García, R. 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Springer Series in Statistics. doi:10.1007/978-0-387-21606-5Chih-Ming Hsu, & Ming-Syan Chen. (2009). On the Design and Applicability of Distance Functions in High-Dimensional Data Space. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 21(4), 523-536. doi:10.1109/tkde.2008.178Hwang, S.-F., & He, R.-S. (2006). A hybrid real-parameter genetic algorithm for function optimization. Advanced Engineering Informatics, 20(1), 7-21. doi:10.1016/j.aei.2005.09.001Izquierdo, J., Montalvo, I., Pérez, R., & Fuertes, V. S. (2008). Design optimization of wastewater collection networks by PSO. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 56(3), 777-784. doi:10.1016/j.camwa.2008.02.007Javadi, A. A., Farmani, R., & Tan, T. P. (2005). A hybrid intelligent genetic algorithm. Advanced Engineering Informatics, 19(4), 255-262. doi:10.1016/j.aei.2005.07.003Jin, X., Zhang, J., Gao, J., & Wu, W. (2008). Multi-objective optimization of water supply network rehabilitation with non-dominated sorting Genetic Algorithm-II. Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE A, 9(3), 391-400. doi:10.1631/jzus.a071448Johns, M. B., Keedwell, E., & Savic, D. (2014). Adaptive locally constrained genetic algorithm for least-cost water distribution network design. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 16(2), 288-301. doi:10.2166/hydro.2013.218Jourdan, L., Corne, D., Savic, D., & Walters, G. (2005). Preliminary Investigation of the ‘Learnable Evolution Model’ for Faster/Better Multiobjective Water Systems Design. Evolutionary Multi-Criterion Optimization, 841-855. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-31880-4_58Kamwa, I., Samantaray, S. R., & Joos, G. (2009). Development of Rule-Based Classifiers for Rapid Stability Assessment of Wide-Area Post-Disturbance Records. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 24(1), 258-270. doi:10.1109/tpwrs.2008.2009430Kang, D., & Lansey, K. (2012). Revisiting Optimal Water-Distribution System Design: Issues and a Heuristic Hierarchical Approach. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 138(3), 208-217. doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000165Keedwell, E., & Khu, S.-T. (2005). A hybrid genetic algorithm for the design of water distribution networks. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 18(4), 461-472. doi:10.1016/j.engappai.2004.10.001Kehl, V., & Ulm, K. (2006). Responder identification in clinical trials with censored data. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 50(5), 1338-1355. doi:10.1016/j.csda.2004.11.015Liu, X., Minin, V., Huang, Y., Seligson, D. B., & Horvath, S. (2004). Statistical Methods for Analyzing Tissue Microarray Data. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 14(3), 671-685. doi:10.1081/bip-200025657Marchi, A., Dandy, G., Wilkins, A., & Rohrlach, H. (2014). Methodology for Comparing Evolutionary Algorithms for Optimization of Water Distribution Systems. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 140(1), 22-31. doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000321Martínez-Rodríguez, J. B., Montalvo, I., Izquierdo, J., & Pérez-García, R. (2011). Reliability and Tolerance Comparison in Water Supply Networks. Water Resources Management, 25(5), 1437-1448. doi:10.1007/s11269-010-9753-2McClymont, K., Keedwell, E., Savić, D., & Randall-Smith, M. (2013). A general multi-objective hyper-heuristic for water distribution network design with discolouration risk. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 15(3), 700-716. doi:10.2166/hydro.2012.022McClymont, K., Keedwell, E. C., Savić, D., & Randall-Smith, M. (2014). Automated construction of evolutionary algorithm operators for the bi-objective water distribution network design problem using a genetic programming based hyper-heuristic approach. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 16(2), 302-318. doi:10.2166/hydro.2013.226Michalski, R. S. (2000). Machine Learning, 38(1/2), 9-40. doi:10.1023/a:1007677805582Montalvo, I., Izquierdo, J., Pérez-García, R., & Herrera, M. (2014). Water Distribution System Computer-Aided Design by Agent Swarm Optimization. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 29(6), 433-448. doi:10.1111/mice.12062Montalvo, I., Izquierdo, J., Schwarze, S., & Pérez-García, R. (2010). Multi-objective particle swarm optimization applied to water distribution systems design: An approach with human interaction. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 52(7-8), 1219-1227. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2010.02.017Nguyen, V. V., Hartmann, D., & König, M. (2012). A distributed agent-based approach for simulation-based optimization. Advanced Engineering Informatics, 26(4), 814-832. doi:10.1016/j.aei.2012.06.001Nicklow, J., Reed, P., Savic, D., Dessalegne, T., Harrell, L., … Chan-Hilton, A. (2010). State of the Art for Genetic Algorithms and Beyond in Water Resources Planning and Management. 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R., & Zecchin, A. C. (2014). Coupled Binary Linear Programming–Differential Evolution Algorithm Approach for Water Distribution System Optimization. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 140(5), 585-597. doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.000036

Global Optimization-Based Calibration Algorithm for a 2D Distributed Hydrologic-Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model

Hydrodynamic models with rain-on-the-grid capabilities are usually computationally expensive. This makes the use of automatic calibration algorithms hard to apply due to the large number of model runs. However, with the recent advances in parallel processing, computational resources, and increasing high-resolution climatologic and GIS data, high-resolution hydrodynamic models can be used for optimization-based calibration. This paper presents a global optimization-based algorithm to calibrate a fully distributed hydrologic-hydrodynamic and water quality model (HydroPol2D) using observed data (i.e., discharge, or pollutant concentration) as input. The algorithm can find a near-optimal set of parameters to explain observed gauged data. The modeling framework presented here, although applied in a poorly-gauged catchment, can be adapted for catchments with more detailed observations. We applied the algorithm in different cases of the V-Tilted Catchment, the Wooden-Board catchment, and in an existing urban catchment with heterogeneous data. The results of automatic calibration indicate $\mathrm{NSE} = 0.99$ for the V-Tilted catchment, $\mathrm{RMSE} = 830~\mathrm{mgL^{-1}}$ for salt concentration pollutographs (i.e., 8.3% of the event mean concentration), and $\mathrm{NSE} = 0.89$ for the urban catchment case study. This paper also explores the issue of equifinality in modeling calibration (EqMC). Equifinality is defined as the set of different parameter combinations that can provide equally good or accepted results, within the physical parameter ranges. EqMC decreases with the number of events and increases with the choice of partially or nonproducing runoff ones. Furthermore, results indicate that providing more accurate parameter ranges based on a priori knowledge of the catchment is fundamental to reduce the chances of finding a set of parameters with equifinality.Comment: Preprint submitted to Journal of Hydrolog