A panel model for predicting the diversity of internal temperatures from English dwellings

Using panel methods, a model for predicting daily mean internal temperature demand across a heterogeneous domestic building stock is developed. The model offers an important link that connects building stock models to human behaviour. It represents the first time a panel model has been used to estimate the dynamics of internal temperature demand from the natural daily fluctuations of external temperature combined with important behavioural, socio-demographic and building efficiency variables. The model is able to predict internal temperatures across a heterogeneous building stock to within ~0.71°C at 95% confidence and explain 45% of the variance of internal temperature between dwellings. The model confirms hypothesis from sociology and psychology that habitual behaviours are important drivers of home energy consumption. In addition, the model offers the possibility to quantify take-back (direct rebound effect) owing to increased internal temperatures from the installation of energy efficiency measures. The presence of thermostats or thermostatic radiator valves (TRV) are shown to reduce average internal temperatures, however, the use of an automatic timer is statistically insignificant. The number of occupants, household income and occupant age are all important factors that explain a proportion of internal temperature demand. Households with children or retired occupants are shown to have higher average internal temperatures than households who do not. As expected, building typology, building age, roof insulation thickness, wall U-value and the proportion of double glazing all have positive and statistically significant effects on daily mean internal temperature. In summary, the model can be used as a tool to predict internal temperatures or for making statistical inferences. However, its primary contribution offers the ability to calibrate existing building stock models to account for behaviour and socio-demographic effects making it possible to back-out more accurate predictions of domestic energy demand

Thermal comfort and indoor air quality on end-user satisfaction level evaluation in a Nearly Zero Carbon neighbourhood

End-user satisfaction studies in residential buildings has to be approached combining the user’s perspective and technical criteria to consider the complex interactions influencing the building energy performance. Therefore, in this study the physical characteristics of dwellings and their environments are assessed, user satisfaction is examined, and the relationship between them is investigated. The study aims to illustrate the end-user satisfaction in exemplary high performance buildings and to investigate how the users are interacting with these buildings. Examination of the building performance, thermal comfort and indoor air quality are the main focal points of the work. In general, results reflect a significant improvement on the satisfaction level of the inhabitants with the comfort of the dwelling after the refurbishment of the district. Findings from the cross-analysis of both surveys and measurements are used to further refine conclusions and identify the driving factors of the interrelationship between building performance and end-user satisfaction

Post-Occupancy Evaluation and IEQ Measurements from 64 Office Buildings: Critical Factors and Thresholds for User Satisfaction on Thermal Quality

The indoor environmental quality (IEQ) of buildings can have a strong influence on occupants’ comfort, productivity, and health. Post-occupancy evaluation (POE) is necessary in assessing the IEQ of the built environment, and it typically relies on the subjective surveys of thermal quality, air quality, visual quality, and acoustic quality. In this research, we expanded POE to include both objective IEQ measurements and the technical attributes of building systems (TABS) that may affect indoor environment and user satisfaction. The suite of three tools, including user satisfaction survey, workstation IEQ measurements, and TABS in the National Environmental Assessment Toolkit (NEAT) has been deployed in 1601 workstations in 64 office buildings, generating a rich database for statistical evaluation of possible correlations between the physical attributes of workstations, environmental conditions, and user satisfaction. Multivariate regression and multiple correlation coefficient statistical analysis revealed the relationship between measured and perceived IEQ indices, interdependencies between IEQ indices, and other satisfaction variables of significance. The results showed that overall, 55% of occupants responded as “satisfied” or “neutral”, and 45% reported being “dissatisfied” in their thermal quality. Given the dataset, air temperature in work area, size of thermal zone, window quality, level of temperature control, and radiant temperature asymmetry with façade are the critical factors for thermal quality satisfaction in the field. As a result, the outcome of this research contributes to identifying correlations between occupant satisfaction, measured data, and technical attributes of building systems. The presented integrated IEQ assessment method can further afford robust predictions of building performance against metrics and guidelines for IEQ standards to capture revised IEQ thresholds that impact building occupants’ satisfaction.</jats:p

Least-biased correction of extended dynamical systems using observational data

We consider dynamical systems evolving near an equilibrium statistical state where the interest is in modelling long term behavior that is consistent with thermodynamic constraints. We adjust the distribution using an entropy-optimizing formulation that can be computed on-the- fly, making possible partial corrections using incomplete information, for example measured data or data computed from a different model (or the same model at a different scale). We employ a thermostatting technique to sample the target distribution with the aim of capturing relavant statistical features while introducing mild dynamical perturbation (thermostats). The method is tested for a point vortex fluid model on the sphere, and we demonstrate both convergence of equilibrium quantities and the ability of the formulation to balance stationary and transient- regime errors.Comment: 27 page

Using Personal Environmental Comfort Systems to Mitigate the Impact of Occupancy Prediction Errors on HVAC Performance

Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) consumes a significant fraction of energy in commercial buildings. Hence, the use of optimization techniques to reduce HVAC energy consumption has been widely studied. Model predictive control (MPC) is one state of the art optimization technique for HVAC control which converts the control problem to a sequence of optimization problems, each over a finite time horizon. In a typical MPC, future system state is estimated from a model using predictions of model inputs, such as building occupancy and outside air temperature. Consequently, as prediction accuracy deteriorates, MPC performance--in terms of occupant comfort and building energy use--degrades. In this work, we use a custom-built building thermal simulator to systematically investigate the impact of occupancy prediction errors on occupant comfort and energy consumption. Our analysis shows that in our test building, as occupancy prediction error increases from 5\% to 20\% the performance of an MPC-based HVAC controller becomes worse than that of even a simple static schedule. However, when combined with a personal environmental control (PEC) system, HVAC controllers are considerably more robust to prediction errors. Thus, we quantify the effectiveness of PECs in mitigating the impact of forecast errors on MPC control for HVAC systems.Comment: 21 pages, 13 figure

Efficient State-Space Inference of Periodic Latent Force Models

Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differential equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the development and application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational cost, especially when closed-form solutions for the LFM are unavailable, as is the case in many real world problems where these latent forces exhibit periodic behaviour. Given this, we develop a new sparse representation of LFMs which considerably improves their computational efficiency, as well as broadening their applicability, in a principled way, to domains with periodic or near periodic latent forces. Our approach uses a linear basis model to approximate one generative model for each periodic force. We assume that the latent forces are generated from Gaussian process priors and develop a linear basis model which fully expresses these priors. We apply our approach to model the thermal dynamics of domestic buildings and show that it is effective at predicting day-ahead temperatures within the homes. We also apply our approach within queueing theory in which quasi-periodic arrival rates are modelled as latent forces. In both cases, we demonstrate that our approach can be implemented efficiently using state-space methods which encode the linear dynamic systems via LFMs. Further, we show that state estimates obtained using periodic latent force models can reduce the root mean squared error to 17% of that from non-periodic models and 27% of the nearest rival approach which is the resonator model.Comment: 61 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in JMLR. Updates from earlier version occur throughout article in response to JMLR review

Efficient state-space inference of periodic latent force models

Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differen-tial equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the developmentand application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational cost, especially whenclosed-form solutions for the LFM are unavailable, as is the case in many real world prob-lems where these latent forces exhibit periodic behaviour. Given this, we develop a newsparse representation of LFMs which considerably improves their computational efficiency,as well as broadening their applicability, in a principled way, to domains with periodic ornear periodic latent forces. Our approach uses a linear basis model to approximate onegenerative model for each periodic force. We assume that the latent forces are generatedfrom Gaussian process priors and develop a linear basis model which fully expresses thesepriors. We apply our approach to model the thermal dynamics of domestic buildings andshow that it is effective at predicting day-ahead temperatures within the homes. We alsoapply our approach within queueing theory in which quasi-periodic arrival rates are mod-elled as latent forces. In both cases, we demonstrate that our approach can be implemented efficiently using state-space methods which encode the linear dynamic systems via LFMs.Further, we show that state estimates obtained using periodic latent force models can re-duce the root mean squared error to 17% of that from non-periodic models and 27% of thenearest rival approach which is the resonator model (S ̈arkk ̈a et al., 2012; Hartikainen et al.,2012.

Dynamic Pricing, Advanced Metering, and Demand Response in Electricity Markets

Presents an overview and analysis of the possible approaches to bringing an active demand side into electricity markets. Part of a series of research reports that examines energy issues facing California