Problem-driven scenario generation: an analytical approach for stochastic programs with tail risk measure

Scenario generation is the construction of a discrete random vector to represent parameters of uncertain values in a stochastic program. Most approaches to scenario generation are distribution-driven, that is, they attempt to construct a random vector which captures well in a probabilistic sense the uncertainty. On the other hand, a problem-driven approach may be able to exploit the structure of a problem to provide a more concise representation of the uncertainty. In this paper we propose an analytic approach to problem-driven scenario generation. This approach applies to stochastic programs where a tail risk measure, such as conditional value-at-risk, is applied to a loss function. Since tail risk measures only depend on the upper tail of a distribution, standard methods of scenario generation, which typically spread their scenarios evenly across the support of the random vector, struggle to adequately represent tail risk. Our scenario generation approach works by targeting the construction of scenarios in areas of the distribution corresponding to the tails of the loss distributions. We provide conditions under which our approach is consistent with sampling, and as proof-of-concept demonstrate how our approach could be applied to two classes of problem, namely network design and portfolio selection. Numerical tests on the portfolio selection problem demonstrate that our approach yields better and more stable solutions compared to standard Monte Carlo sampling

Model Consistency for Learning with Mirror-Stratifiable Regularizers

Low-complexity non-smooth convex regularizers are routinely used to impose some structure (such as sparsity or low-rank) on the coefficients for linear predictors in supervised learning. Model consistency consists then in selecting the correct structure (for instance support or rank) by regularized empirical risk minimization. It is known that model consistency holds under appropriate non-degeneracy conditions. However such conditions typically fail for highly correlated designs and it is observed that regularization methods tend to select larger models. In this work, we provide the theoretical underpinning of this behavior using the notion of mirror-stratifiable regularizers. This class of regularizers encompasses the most well-known in the literature, including the $\ell_1$ or trace norms. It brings into play a pair of primal-dual models, which in turn allows one to locate the structure of the solution using a specific dual certificate. We also show how this analysis is applicable to optimal solutions of the learning problem, and also to the iterates computed by a certain class of stochastic proximal-gradient algorithms.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Confidence-based Reasoning in Stochastic Constraint Programming

In this work we introduce a novel approach, based on sampling, for finding assignments that are likely to be solutions to stochastic constraint satisfaction problems and constraint optimisation problems. Our approach reduces the size of the original problem being analysed; by solving this reduced problem, with a given confidence probability, we obtain assignments that satisfy the chance constraints in the original model within prescribed error tolerance thresholds. To achieve this, we blend concepts from stochastic constraint programming and statistics. We discuss both exact and approximate variants of our method. The framework we introduce can be immediately employed in concert with existing approaches for solving stochastic constraint programs. A thorough computational study on a number of stochastic combinatorial optimisation problems demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach.Comment: 53 pages, working draf

A biobjective method for sample allocation in stratified sampling

The two main and contradicting criteria guiding sampling design are accuracy of estimators and sampling costs. In stratified random sampling, the sample size must be allocated to strata in order to optimize both objectives. In this note we address, following a biobjective methodology, this allocation problem. A two-phase method is proposed to describe the set of Pareto-optimal solutions of this nonlinear integer biobjective problem. In the first phase, all supported Pareto-optimal solutions are described via a closed formula, which enables quick computation. Moreover, for the common case in which sampling costs are independent of the strata, all Pareto-optimal solutions are shown to be supported. For more general cost structures, the non-supported Pareto-optimal solutions are found by solving a parametric knapsack problem. Bounds on the criteria can also be imposed, directing the search towards implementable sampling plans. Our method provides a deeper insight into the problem than simply solving a scalarized version, whereas the computational burden is reasonable.Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnologí