116,741 research outputs found
Verbal Autopsy Methods with Multiple Causes of Death
Verbal autopsy procedures are widely used for estimating cause-specific
mortality in areas without medical death certification. Data on symptoms
reported by caregivers along with the cause of death are collected from a
medical facility, and the cause-of-death distribution is estimated in the
population where only symptom data are available. Current approaches analyze
only one cause at a time, involve assumptions judged difficult or impossible to
satisfy, and require expensive, time-consuming, or unreliable physician
reviews, expert algorithms, or parametric statistical models. By generalizing
current approaches to analyze multiple causes, we show how most of the
difficult assumptions underlying existing methods can be dropped. These
generalizations also make physician review, expert algorithms and parametric
statistical assumptions unnecessary. With theoretical results, and empirical
analyses in data from China and Tanzania, we illustrate the accuracy of this
approach. While no method of analyzing verbal autopsy data, including the more
computationally intensive approach offered here, can give accurate estimates in
all circumstances, the procedure offered is conceptually simpler, less
expensive, more general, as or more replicable, and easier to use in practice
than existing approaches. We also show how our focus on estimating aggregate
proportions, which are the quantities of primary interest in verbal autopsy
studies, may also greatly reduce the assumptions necessary for, and thus
improve the performance of, many individual classifiers in this and other
areas. As a companion to this paper, we also offer easy-to-use software that
implements the methods discussed herein.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-STS247 the Statistical
Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
A Tutorial on Estimating Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Models
Time series of individual subjects have become a common data type in
psychological research. These data allow one to estimate models of
within-subject dynamics, and thereby avoid the notorious problem of making
within-subjects inferences from between-subjects data, and naturally address
heterogeneity between subjects. A popular model for these data is the Vector
Autoregressive (VAR) model, in which each variable is predicted as a linear
function of all variables at previous time points. A key assumption of this
model is that its parameters are constant (or stationary) across time. However,
in many areas of psychological research time-varying parameters are plausible
or even the subject of study. In this tutorial paper, we introduce methods to
estimate time-varying VAR models based on splines and kernel-smoothing
with/without regularization. We use simulations to evaluate the relative
performance of all methods in scenarios typical in applied research, and
discuss their strengths and weaknesses. Finally, we provide a step-by-step
tutorial showing how to apply the discussed methods to an openly available time
series of mood-related measurements
How reliable are systematic reviews in empirical software engineering?
BACKGROUND – the systematic review is becoming a more commonly employed research instrument in
empirical software engineering. Before undue reliance is placed on the outcomes of such reviews it would seem useful to consider the robustness of the approach in this particular research context.
OBJECTIVE – the aim of this study is to assess the reliability of systematic reviews as a research instrument. In particular we wish to investigate the consistency of process and the stability of outcomes.
METHOD – we compare the results of two independent reviews under taken with a common research question.
RESULTS – the two reviews find similar answers to the research question, although the means of arriving at those answers vary.
CONCLUSIONS – in addressing a well-bounded research question, groups of researchers with similar domain experience can arrive at the same review outcomes, even though they may do so in different ways.
This provides evidence that, in this context at least, the systematic review is a robust research method
Seismic response trends evaluation and finite element model calibration of an instrumented RC building considering soil-structure interaction and non-structural components
Peer reviewedPostprin
Prediction of depression in European general practice attendees: the PREDICT study
Background
Prevention of depression must address multiple risk factors. Estimating overall risk across a range of putative risk factors is fundamental to prevention of depression. However, we lack reliable and valid methods of risk estimation. This protocol paper introduces PREDICT, an international research study to address this risk estimation.
Methods/design
This is a prospective study in which consecutive general practice attendees in six European countries are recruited and followed up after six and 12 months. Prevalence of depression is assessed at baseline and each follow-up point. Consecutive attendees between April 2003 and September 2004 who were aged 18 to 75 were asked to take part. The possibility of a depressive episode was assessed using the Depression Section of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. A selection of presumed risk factors was based on our previous work and a systematic review of the literature. It was necessary to evaluate the test-retest reliability of a number of risk factor questions that were developed specifically, or adapted, for the PREDICT study. In a separate reliability study conducted between January and November 2003, consecutive general practice attendees in the six participating European countries completed the risk factor items on two occasions, two weeks apart. The overall response rate at entry to the study was 69%. We exceeded our expected recruitment rate, achieving a total of 10,048 people in all. Reliability coefficients were generally good to excellent.
Discussion
Response rate to follow-up in all countries was uniformly high, which suggests that prediction will be based on almost a full cohort. The results of our reliability analysis are encouraging and suggest that data collected during the course of PREDICT will have a satisfactory level of stability. The development of a multi-factor risk score for depression will lay the foundation for future research on risk reduction in primary care. Our data will also provide the necessary evidence base on which to develop and evaluate interventions to reduce the prevalence of depression
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