The dynamic spillovers of entry: an application to the generic drug industry

This paper examines if experience from entry in one market can potentially enhance profitability at a future market opportunity for a related product. We formulate and estimate a dynamic game of entry in which forward looking firms make decisions not just based on present benefits of past entry but also anticipating potential future benefits of current entry. Dynamic spillovers of entry are incorporated through a firm specific unobservable (to the researcher) cost that depends on past entry decisions. The unobserved costs may also be serially persistent. Thus, the model allows for firm specific unobserved heterogeneity that evolves based on firm actions. The challenge of estimating a dynamic game with serially correlated unobserved state variables subject to endogenous feedback is overcome by embedding a particle filter based technique in a Nested Fixed Point Algorithm. Using an application to a stylized model of entry in the generic pharmaceutical industry we underscore the motivation for the model specification and the methodology developed. Our estimates imply positive spillover effects of entry. Moreover, these spillovers suggest heterogeneity not just across firms but also within firms over time based on their history of entry decisions. Our results illustrate that entry may potentially provide firms with additional strategic advantage in later markets, and that entry spillovers may be an important factor to consider in the equilibrium evolution of the generic drug industry.H. Hong acknowledges financial support from the National Science Foundation [Grant SES1459975] and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Researc

Optimizing aconitate removal during clarification

The inadequate removal of aconitic acid from sugar cane juice during the clarification process results in the acid contributing to processing difficulties, sucrose loss and extended down time. However, very few attempts have been made to remove the acid during normal factory operations. Batch clarification techniques were used in this study to investigate the effect of sucrose concentration, temperature, pH, time, defecant, and defecant concentration on aconitic acid removal from a synthetic juice solution. Methodology for determining the significance of each parameter to aconitic acid removal involved setting up a multiple factorial experiment looking at aconitic acid removal across all the parameters and their sublevels using the mixed linear modeling procedure in SAS (statistics analysis software) and applying results to raw juice. Results indicated that sucrose concentration, temperature and defecant concentration were the most significant parameters contributing to Aconitic acid removal, since aconitic acid removal was limited by cis-aconitic acid formation, the solubility of aconitates and competing compounds. Optimizing aconitic acid removal form synthetic juice points to reducing cis-aconitic acid formation by clarifying at low temperatures, reducing solubility of aconitates by increasing sucrose concentration and providing adequate reactants for competing compounds. Optimal conditions for aconitic acid removal from synthetic juice, when applied to raw juice resulted in a marginal increase in aconitic removal. However, prospects for increased aconitic acid removal from raw juice points to clarification of raw juice at the concentrated levels

Some New Results in Distributed Tracking and Optimization

The current age of Big Data is built on the foundation of distributed systems, and efficient distributed algorithms to run on these systems.With the rapid increase in the volume of the data being fed into these systems, storing and processing all this data at a central location becomes infeasible. Such a central \textit{server} requires a gigantic amount of computational and storage resources. Even when it is possible to have central servers, it is not always desirable, due to privacy concerns. Also, sending huge amounts of data to such servers incur often infeasible bandwidth requirements. In this dissertation, we consider two kinds of distributed architectures: 1) star-shaped topology, where multiple worker nodes are connected to, and communicate with a server, but the workers do not communicate with each other; and 2) mesh topology or network of interconnected workers, where each worker can communicate with a small number of neighboring workers. In the first half of this dissertation (Chapters 2 and 3), we consider distributed systems with mesh topology.We study two different problems in this context. First, we study the problem of simultaneous localization and multi-target tracking. Multiple mobile agents localize themselves cooperatively, while also tracking multiple, unknown number of mobile targets, in the presence of measurement-origin uncertainty. In situations with limited GPS signal availability, agents (like self-driving cars in urban canyons, or autonomous vehicles in hazardous environments) need to rely on inter-agent measurements for localization. The agents perform the additional task of tracking multiple targets (pedestrians and road-signs for self-driving cars). We propose a decentralized algorithm for this problem. To be effective in real-time applications, we propose efficient Gaussian and Gaussian-mixture based filters, rather than the computationally expensive particle-based methods in the existing literature. Our novel factor-graph based approach gives better performance, in terms of both agent localization errors, and target-location and cardinality errors. Next, we study an online convex optimization problem, where a network of agents cooperate to minimize a global time-varying objective function. Only the local functions are revealed to individual agents. The agents also need to satisfy their individual constraints. We propose a primal-dual update based decentralized algorithm for this problem. Under standard assumptions, we prove that the proposed algorithm achieves sublinear regret and constraint violation across the network. In other words, over a long enough time horizon, the decisions taken by the agents are, on average, as good as if all the information was revealed ahead of time. In addition, the individual constraint violations of the agents, averaged over time, are zero. In the next part of the dissertation (Chapters 4), we study distributed systems with a star-shaped topology. The problem we study is distributed nonconvex optimization. With the recent success of deep learning, coupled with the use of distributed systems to solve large-scale problems, this problem has gained prominence over the past decade. The recently proposed paradigm of Federated Learning (which has already been deployed by Google/Apple in Android/iOS phones) has further catalyzed research in this direction. The problem we consider is minimizing the average of local smooth, nonconvex functions. Each node has access only to its own loss function, but can communicate with the server, which aggregates updates from all the nodes, before distributing them to all the nodes. With the advent of more and more complex neural network architectures, these updates can be high dimensional. To save resources, the problem needs to be solved via communication-efficient approaches. We propose a novel algorithm, which combines the idea of variance-reduction, with the paradigm of carrying out multiple local updates at each node before averaging. We prove the convergence of the approach to a first-order stationary point. Our algorithm is optimal in terms of computation, and state-of-the-art in terms of the communication requirements. Lastly in Chapter 5, we consider the situation when the nodes do not have access to function gradients, and need to minimize the loss function using only function values. This problem lies in the domain of zeroth-order optimization. For simplicity of analysis, we study this problem only in the single-node case. This problem finds application in simulation-based optimization, and adversarial example generation for attacking deep neural networks. We propose a novel function value based gradient estimator, which has better variance, and better query-efficiency compared to existing estimators. The proposed estimator covers the most commonly used existing estimators as special cases. We conduct a comprehensive convergence analysis under different conditions. We also demonstrate its effectiveness through a real-world application to generating adversarial examples from a black-box deep neural network

Forecasting Workforce Requirement for State Transportation Agencies: A Machine Learning Approach

A decline in the number of construction engineers and inspectors available at State Transportation Agencies (STAs) to manage the ever-increasing lane miles has emphasized the importance of workforce planning in this sector. One of the crucial aspects of workforce planning involves forecasting the required workforce for any industry or agency. This thesis developed machine learning models to estimate the person-hour requirements of STAs at the agency and project levels. The Arkansas Department of Transportation (ARDOT) was used as a case study, using its employee data between 2012 and 2021. At the project level, machine learning regressors ranging from linear, tree ensembles, kernel-based, and neural network-based models were developed. At the agency level, a classic time series modeling approach, as well as neural networks-based models, were developed to forecast the monthly person-hour requirements of the agency. Parametric and non-parametric tests were employed in comparing the models across both levels. The results indicated a high performance from the random forest regressor, a tree ensemble with bagging, which recorded an average R-squared value of 0.91. The one-dimensional convolutional neural network model was the most effective model for forecasting the monthly person requirements at the agency level. It recorded an average RMSE of 4,500 person-hours monthly over short-range forecasting and an average of 5,000 person-hours monthly over long-range forecasting. These findings underscore the capability of machine learning models to provide more accurate workforce demand forecasts for STAs and the construction industry. This enhanced accuracy in workforce planning will contribute to improved resource allocation and management

Forecasting Workforce Requirement for State Transportation Agencies: A Machine Learning Approach

A decline in the number of construction engineers and inspectors available at State Transportation Agencies (STAs) to manage the ever-increasing lane miles has emphasized the importance of workforce planning in this sector. One of the crucial aspects of workforce planning involves forecasting the required workforce for any industry or agency. This thesis developed machine learning models to estimate the person-hour requirements of STAs at the agency and project levels. The Arkansas Department of Transportation (ARDOT) was used as a case study, using its employee data between 2012 and 2021. At the project level, machine learning regressors ranging from linear, tree ensembles, kernel-based, and neural network-based models were developed. At the agency level, a classic time series modeling approach, as well as neural networks-based models, were developed to forecast the monthly person-hour requirements of the agency. Parametric and non-parametric tests were employed in comparing the models across both levels. The results indicated a high performance from the random forest regressor, a tree ensemble with bagging, which recorded an average R-squared value of 0.91. The one-dimensional convolutional neural network model was the most effective model for forecasting the monthly person requirements at the agency level. It recorded an average RMSE of 4,500 person-hours monthly over short-range forecasting and an average of 5,000 person-hours monthly over long-range forecasting. These findings underscore the capability of machine learning models to provide more accurate workforce demand forecasts for STAs and the construction industry. This enhanced accuracy in workforce planning will contribute to improved resource allocation and management

Mobile Robot Navigation for Person Following in Indoor Environments

Service robotics is a rapidly growing area of interest in robotics research. Service robots inhabit human-populated environments and carry out specific tasks. The goal of this dissertation is to develop a service robot capable of following a human leader around populated indoor environments. A classification system for person followers is proposed such that it clearly defines the expected interaction between the leader and the robotic follower. In populated environments, the robot needs to be able to detect and identify its leader and track the leader through occlusions, a common characteristic of populated spaces. An appearance-based person descriptor, which augments the Kinect skeletal tracker, is developed and its performance in detecting and overcoming short and long-term leader occlusions is demonstrated. While following its leader, the robot has to ensure that it does not collide with stationary and moving obstacles, including other humans, in the environment. This requirement necessitates the use of a systematic navigation algorithm. A modified version of navigation function path planning, called the predictive fields path planner, is developed. This path planner models the motion of obstacles, uses a simplified representation of practical workspaces, and generates bounded, stable control inputs which guide the robot to its desired position without collisions with obstacles. The predictive fields path planner is experimentally verified on a non-person follower system and then integrated into the robot navigation module of the person follower system. To navigate the robot, it is necessary to localize it within its environment. A mapping approach based on depth data from the Kinect RGB-D sensor is used in generating a local map of the environment. The map is generated by combining inter-frame rotation and translation estimates based on scan generation and dead reckoning respectively. Thus, a complete mobile robot navigation system for person following in indoor environments is presented

Modelling of a generalized thermal conductivity for granular multiphase geomaterial design purposes

Soil thermal conductivity has an important role in geo-energy applications such as high voltage buried power cables, oil and gas pipelines, shallow geo-energy storage systems and heat transfer modelling. Hence, improvement of thermal conductivity of geomaterials is important in many engineering applications. In this thesis, an extensive experimental investigation was performed to enhance the thermal conductivity of geomaterials by modifying particle size distribution into fuller curve gradation, and by adding fine particles in an appropriate ratio as fillers. A significant improvement in the thermal conductivity was achieved with the newly developed geomaterials. An adaptive model based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) was developed to generalize the different conditions and soil types for estimating the thermal conductivity of geomaterials. After a corresponding training phase of the model based on the experimental data, the ANN model was able to predict the thermal conductivity of the independent experimental data very well. In perspective, the model can be supplemented with data of further soil types and conditions, so that a comprehensive representation of the saturation-dependent thermal conductivity of any materials can be prepared. The numerical 'black box' model developed in this way can generalize the relationships between different materials for later added amounts of data and soil types. In addition to the model development, a detailed validation was carried out using different geomaterials and boundary conditions to reinforce the applicability and superiority of the prediction models

Methods to Improve the Prediction Accuracy and Performance of Ensemble Models

The application of ensemble predictive models has been an important research area in predicting medical diagnostics, engineering diagnostics, and other related smart devices and related technologies. Most of the current predictive models are complex and not reliable despite numerous efforts in the past by the research community. The performance accuracy of the predictive models have not always been realised due to many factors such as complexity and class imbalance. Therefore there is a need to improve the predictive accuracy of current ensemble models and to enhance their applications and reliability and non-visual predictive tools. The research work presented in this thesis has adopted a pragmatic phased approach to propose and develop new ensemble models using multiple methods and validated the methods through rigorous testing and implementation in different phases. The first phase comprises of empirical investigations on standalone and ensemble algorithms that were carried out to ascertain their performance effects on complexity and simplicity of the classifiers. The second phase comprises of an improved ensemble model based on the integration of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN) and AdaBoost algorithms. The third phase comprises of an extended model based on early stop concepts, AdaBoost algorithm, and statistical performance of the training samples to minimize overfitting performance of the proposed model. The fourth phase comprises of an enhanced analytical multivariate logistic regression predictive model developed to minimize the complexity and improve prediction accuracy of logistic regression model. To facilitate the practical application of the proposed models; an ensemble non-invasive analytical tool is proposed and developed. The tool links the gap between theoretical concepts and practical application of theories to predict breast cancer survivability. The empirical findings suggested that: (1) increasing the complexity and topology of algorithms does not necessarily lead to a better algorithmic performance, (2) boosting by resampling performs slightly better than boosting by reweighting, (3) the prediction accuracy of the proposed ensemble EKF-RBFN-AdaBoost model performed better than several established ensemble models, (4) the proposed early stopped model converges faster and minimizes overfitting better compare with other models, (5) the proposed multivariate logistic regression concept minimizes the complexity models (6) the performance of the proposed analytical non-invasive tool performed comparatively better than many of the benchmark analytical tools used in predicting breast cancers and diabetics ailments. The research contributions to ensemble practice are: (1) the integration and development of EKF, RBFN and AdaBoost algorithms as an ensemble model, (2) the development and validation of ensemble model based on early stop concepts, AdaBoost, and statistical concepts of the training samples, (3) the development and validation of predictive logistic regression model based on breast cancer, and (4) the development and validation of a non-invasive breast cancer analytic tools based on the proposed and developed predictive models in this thesis. To validate prediction accuracy of ensemble models, in this thesis the proposed models were applied in modelling breast cancer survivability and diabetics’ diagnostic tasks. In comparison with other established models the simulation results of the models showed improved predictive accuracy. The research outlines the benefits of the proposed models, whilst proposes new directions for future work that could further extend and improve the proposed models discussed in this thesis

Articulated human tracking and behavioural analysis in video sequences

Recently, there has been a dramatic growth of interest in the observation and tracking of human subjects through video sequences. Arguably, the principal impetus has come from the perceived demand for technological surveillance, however applications in entertainment, intelligent domiciles and medicine are also increasing. This thesis examines human articulated tracking and the classi cation of human movement, rst separately and then as a sequential process. First, this thesis considers the development and training of a 3D model of human body structure and dynamics. To process video sequences, an observation model is also designed with a multi-component likelihood based on edge, silhouette and colour. This is de ned on the articulated limbs, and visible from a single or multiple cameras, each of which may be calibrated from that sequence. Second, for behavioural analysis, we develop a methodology in which actions and activities are described by semantic labels generated from a Movement Cluster Model (MCM). Third, a Hierarchical Partitioned Particle Filter (HPPF) was developed for human tracking that allows multi-level parameter search consistent with the body structure. This tracker relies on the articulated motion prediction provided by the MCM at pose or limb level. Fourth, tracking and movement analysis are integrated to generate a probabilistic activity description with action labels. The implemented algorithms for tracking and behavioural analysis are tested extensively and independently against ground truth on human tracking and surveillance datasets. Dynamic models are shown to predict and generate synthetic motion, while MCM recovers both periodic and non-periodic activities, de ned either on the whole body or at the limb level. Tracking results are comparable with the state of the art, however the integrated behaviour analysis adds to the value of the approach.Overseas Research Students Awards Scheme (ORSAS

Data Acquisition Applications

Data acquisition systems have numerous applications. This book has a total of 13 chapters and is divided into three sections: Industrial applications, Medical applications and Scientific experiments. The chapters are written by experts from around the world, while the targeted audience for this book includes professionals who are designers or researchers in the field of data acquisition systems. Faculty members and graduate students could also benefit from the book