148,068 research outputs found

    Predicting epidemic evolution on contact networks from partial observations

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    The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief Propagation was proved to be a reliable and efficient method to identify the origin of an observed epidemics. Here we show that the same method can be applied to predict the future evolution of an epidemic outbreak from partial observations at the early stage of the dynamics. The results obtained using Belief Propagation are compared with Monte Carlo direct sampling in the case of SIR model on random (regular and power-law) graphs for different observation methods and on an example of real-world contact network. Belief Propagation gives in general a better prediction that direct sampling, although the quality of the prediction depends on the quantity under study (e.g. marginals of individual states, epidemic size, extinction-time distribution) and on the actual number of observed nodes that are infected before the observation time

    Clustering from Sparse Pairwise Measurements

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    We consider the problem of grouping items into clusters based on few random pairwise comparisons between the items. We introduce three closely related algorithms for this task: a belief propagation algorithm approximating the Bayes optimal solution, and two spectral algorithms based on the non-backtracking and Bethe Hessian operators. For the case of two symmetric clusters, we conjecture that these algorithms are asymptotically optimal in that they detect the clusters as soon as it is information theoretically possible to do so. We substantiate this claim for one of the spectral approaches we introduce

    Hierarchical structure-and-motion recovery from uncalibrated images

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    This paper addresses the structure-and-motion problem, that requires to find camera motion and 3D struc- ture from point matches. A new pipeline, dubbed Samantha, is presented, that departs from the prevailing sequential paradigm and embraces instead a hierarchical approach. This method has several advantages, like a provably lower computational complexity, which is necessary to achieve true scalability, and better error containment, leading to more stability and less drift. Moreover, a practical autocalibration procedure allows to process images without ancillary information. Experiments with real data assess the accuracy and the computational efficiency of the method.Comment: Accepted for publication in CVI
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