Vegetation Dynamics Revealed by Remote Sensing and Its Feedback to Regional and Global Climate

This book focuses on some significant progress in vegetation dynamics and their response to climate change revealed by remote sensing data. The development of satellite remote sensing and its derived products offer fantastic opportunities to investigate vegetation changes and their feedback to regional and global climate systems. Special attention is given in the book to vegetation changes and their drivers, the effects of extreme climate events on vegetation, land surface albedo associated with vegetation changes, plant fingerprints, and vegetation dynamics in climate modeling

Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2-71.2% during 1982-2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms

How are Interannual Variations of Land Surface Phenology in the Highland Pastures of Kyrgyzstan Modulated by Terrain, Snow Cover Seasonality, and Climate Oscillations? An Investigation Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data

In the semiarid, continental climates of montane Central Asia, with its constant moisture deficit and low relative humidity, agropastoralism constitutes the foundation of the rural economy. In Kyrgyzstan, an impoverished, landlocked republic in Central Asia, herders of the highlands practice vertical transhumance—the annual movement of livestock to higher elevation pastures to take advantage of seasonally available forage resources. Dependency on pasture resource availability during the short mountain growing season makes herds and herders susceptible to changing weather and climate patterns. This dissertation focuses on using remote sensing observations over the highland pastures in Kyrgyzstan to address five interrelated topics: (i) changes in snow cover and its seasonality from 2002 through 2016; (ii) pasture phenology from the perspective of land surface phenology using multi-scale data from 2001 through 2017; (iii) relationships between snow cover seasonality and subsequent land surface phenology; (iv) terrain effects on the snow-phenology interrelations; and (v) the influence of atmospheric teleconnections on modulating the relationships between snow cover seasonality, growing season duration, and pasture phenology. Results indicate that more territory has been experiencing earlier snow onset than earlier snowmelt, and around equivalent areas with longer and shorter duration of snow seasons. Significant shifts toward earlier snow onset (snowmelt) occurred in western and central (eastern) Kyrgyzstan, and significant duration of the snow season shortening (extension) across western and eastern (northern and southwestern) Kyrgyzstan. Below 3400 m, there was a general trend of significantly earlier snowmelt, and this area of earlier snowmelt was 15 times greater in eastern than western rayons. In terms of land surface phenology, there was a predominant and significant trend of increasing peak greenness, and a significant positive relationship between snow covered dates and modeled peak greenness. While there were more negative correlations between snow cover onset and peak greenness, there were more positive correlations between snowmelt timing and peak greenness, meaning that a longer snow cover season increased the amplitude of peak greenness. The amount of thermal time (measured in accumulated growing degree-days) to reach peak greenness was significantly negatively correlated both with the number of snow covered dates and the snowmelt date. Thus, more snow covered dates translated into fewer growing degree-days accumulated to reach peak greenness in the subsequent growing season. Terrain features influenced the timing of snowmelt more strongly than the number of snow covered dates. Slope was more important than aspect, but the strongest effect appeared from the interaction of aspect and the steepest slopes. The influence of atmospheric teleconnection arising from climate oscillation modes was marginal at the spatial resolutions of this study. Thermal time accumulation could be largely explained with Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression models by elevation and snow cover metrics. However, explanation of peak greenness was less susceptible to terrain and snow cover variables. This research study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the spatial variation of interannual phenology in the highland pastures that serve as the foundation of rural Kyrgyz economy. Finally, it contributes to a better understanding of recent environmental changes in remote highland Central Asia

Emerging opportunities and challenges in phenology: a review

Plant phenology research has gained increasing attention because of the sensitivity of phenology to climate change and its consequences for ecosystem function. Recent technological development has made it possible to gather invaluable data at a variety of spatial and ecological scales. Despite our ability to observe phenological change at multiple scales, the mechanistic basis of phenology is still not well understood. Integration of multiple disciplines, including ecology, evolutionary biology, climate science, and remote sensing, with long-term monitoring data across multiple spatial scales are needed to advance understanding of phenology. We review the mechanisms and major drivers of plant phenology, including temperature, photoperiod, and winter chilling, as well as other factors such as competition, resource limitation, and genetics. Shifts in plant phenology have significant consequences on ecosystem productivity, carbon cycling, competition, food webs, and other ecosystem functions and services. We summarize recent advances in observation techniques across multiple spatial scales, including digital repeat photography, other complementary optical measurements, and solar induced fluorescence, to assess our capability to address the importance of these scale-dependent drivers. Then we review phenology models as an important component of earth system modeling. We find that the lack of species-level knowledge and observation data lead to difficulties in the development of vegetation phenology models at ecosystem or community scales. Finally, we recommend further research to advance understanding of the mechanisms governing phenology and the standardization of phenology observation methods across networks. With the opportunity for “big data” collection for plant phenology, we envision a breakthrough in process-based phenology modeling

Remote Sensing of Land Surface Phenology

Land surface phenology (LSP) uses remote sensing to monitor seasonal dynamics in vegetated land surfaces and retrieve phenological metrics (transition dates, rate of change, annual integrals, etc.). LSP has developed rapidly in the last few decades. Both regional and global LSP products have been routinely generated and play prominent roles in modeling crop yield, ecological surveillance, identifying invasive species, modeling the terrestrial biosphere, and assessing impacts on urban and natural ecosystems. Recent advances in field and spaceborne sensor technologies, as well as data fusion techniques, have enabled novel LSP retrieval algorithms that refine retrievals at even higher spatiotemporal resolutions, providing new insights into ecosystem dynamics. Meanwhile, rigorous assessment of the uncertainties in LSP retrievals is ongoing, and efforts to reduce these uncertainties represent an active research area. Open source software and hardware are in development, and have greatly facilitated the use of LSP metrics by scientists outside the remote sensing community. This reprint covers the latest developments in sensor technologies, LSP retrieval algorithms and validation strategies, and the use of LSP products in a variety of fields. It aims to summarize the ongoing diverse LSP developments and boost discussions on future research prospects

Trends of land surface phenology derived from passive microwave and optical remote sensing systems and associated drivers across the dry tropics 1992–2012

Changes in vegetation phenology are among the most sensitive biological responses to global change. While land surface phenological changes in the Northern Hemisphere have been extensively studied from the widely used long-term AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) data, current knowledge on land surface phenological trends and the associated drivers remains uncertain for the tropics. This uncertainty is partly due to the well-known challenges of applying satellite-derived vegetation indices from the optical domain in areas prone to frequent cloud cover. The long-term vegetation optical depth (VOD) product from satellite passive microwaves features less sensitivity to atmospheric perturbations and measures different vegetation traits and functioning as compared to optical sensors. VOD thereby provides an independent and complementary data source for studying land surface phenology and here we performed a combined analysis of the VOD and AVHRR NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) datasets for the dry tropics (25°N to 25°S) during 1992–2012. We find a general delay in the VOD derived start of season (SOS) and end of season (EOS) as compared to NDVI derived metrics, however with clear differences among land cover and continents. Pixels characterized by significant phenological trends (P < 0.05) account for up to 20% of the study area for each phenological metric of NDVI and VOD, with large spatial difference between the two sensor systems. About 50% of the pixels studied show significant phenological changes in either VOD or NDVI metrics. Drivers of phenological changes were assessed for pixels of high agreement between VOD and NDVI phenological metrics (serving as a means of reducing noise-related uncertainty). We find rainfall variability and woody vegetation change to be the main forcing variables of phenological trends for most of the dry tropical biomes, while fire events and land cover change are recognized as second-order drivers. Taken together, our study provides new insights on land surface phenological changes and the associated drivers in the dry tropics, as based on the complementary long-term data sources of VOD and NDVI, sensitive to changes in vegetation water content and greenness, respectively

How Much Variation in Land Surface Phenology can Climate Oscillation Modes Explain at the Scale of Mountain Pastures in Kyrgyzstan?

Climate oscillation modes can shape weather across the globe due to atmospheric teleconnections. We built on the findings of a recent study to assess whether the impacts of teleconnections are detectable and significant in the early season dynamics of highland pastures across five rayons in Kyrgyzstan. Specifically, since land surface phenology (LSP) has already shown to be influenced by snow cover seasonality and terrain, we investigated here how much more explanatory and predictive power information about climatic oscillation modes might add to explain variation in LSP. We focused on seasonal values of five climate oscillation indices that influence vegetation dynamics in Central Asia. We characterized the phenology in highland pastures with metrics derived from LSP modeling using Landsat NDVI time series together with MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data: Peak Height (PH), the maximum modeled NDVI and Thermal Time to Peak (TTP), the quantity of accumulated growing degree-days based on LST required to reach PH. Next, we calculated two metrics of snow cover seasonality from MODIS snow cover composites: last date of snow (LDoS), and the number of snow covered dates (SCD). For terrain features, we derived elevation, slope, and TRASP index as linearization of aspect. First, we used Spearman’s rank correlation to assess the geographical differentiation of land surface phenology metrics responses to environmental variables. PH showed weak correlations with TTP (positive in western but negative in eastern rayons), and moderate relationships with LDoS and SCD only in one northeastern rayon. Slope was weakly related to PH, while TRASP showed a consistent moderate negative correlation with PH. A significant but weak negative correlation was found between PH and SCAND JJA, and a significant weak positive correlation with MEI MAM. TTP showed consistently strong negative relationships with LDoS, SCD, and elevation. Very weak positive correlations with TTP were found for EAWR DJF, AMO DJF, and MEI DJF in western rayons only. Second, we used Partial Least Squares regression to investigate the role of oscillation modes altogether. PLS modelling of TTP showed that thermal time accumulation could be explained mostly by elevation and snow cover metrics, leading to reduced models explaining 55 to 70% of observed variation in TTP. Variable selection indicated that NAO JJA, AMO JJA and SCAND MAM had significant relationships with TTP, but their input of predictive power was neglible. PLS models were able to explain up to 29% of variability in PH. SCAND JJA and MEI MAM were shown to be significant predictors, but adding them into models did not influence modeling performance. We concluded the impacts of climate oscillation anomalies were not detectable or significant in mountain pastures using LSP metrics at fine spatial resolution. Rather, at a 30m resolution, the indirect effects of seasonal climatic oscillations are overridden by terrain influences (mostly elevation) and snow cover timing. Whether climate oscillation mode indices can provide some new and useful information about growing season conditions remains a provocative question, particularly in light of the multiple environmental challenges facing the agropastoralism livelihood in montane Central Asia

Land Surface Phenology in the Highland Pastures of Montane Central Asia: Interactions with Snow Cover Seasonality and Terrain Characteristics

Many studies have shown that high elevation environments are among very sensitive to climatic changes and where impacts are exacerbated. Across Central Asia, which is especially vulnerable to climate change due to aridity, the ability of global climate projections to capture the complex dynamics of mountainous environments is particularly limited. Over montane Central Asia, agropastoralism constitutes a major portion of the rural economy. Extensive herbaceous vegetation forms the basis of rural economies in Kyrgyzstan. Here we focus on snow cover seasonality and the effects of terrain on phenology in highland pastures using remote sensing data for 2001–2017. First, we describe the thermal regime of growing season using MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) data, analyzing the modulation by elevation, slope, and aspect. We then characterized the phenology in highland pastures with metrics derived from modeling the land surface phenology using Landsat normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series together with MODIS LST data. Using rank correlations, we then analyzed the influence of four metrics of snow cover seasonality calculated from MODIS snow cover composites—first date of snow, late date of snow, duration of snow season, and the number of snow-covered dates (SCD)—on two key metrics of land surface phenology in the subsequent growing season, specifically, peak height (PH; the maximum modeled NDVI) and thermal time to peak (TTP; the amount of growing degree-days accumulated during modeled green-up phase). We evaluated the role of terrain features in shaping the relationships between snow cover metrics and land surface phenology metrics using exact multinomial tests of equivalence. Key findings include (1) a positive relationship between SCD and PH occurred in over 1664 km2 at p \u3c 0.01 and 5793 km2 at p \u3c 0.05, which account for\u3e8% of 68,881 km2 of the pasturelands analyzed in Kyrgyzstan; (2) more negative than positive correlations were found between snow cover onset and PH, and more positive correlations were observed between snowmelt timing and PH, indicating that a longer snow season can positively influence PH; (3) significant negative correlations between TTP and SCD appeared in 1840 km2 at p \u3c 0.01 and 6208 km2 at p \u3c 0.05, and a comparable but smaller area showed negative correlations between TTP and last date of snow (1538 km2 at p \u3c 0.01 and 5188 km2 at p \u3c 0.05), indicating that under changing climatic conditions toward earlier spring warming, decreased duration of snow cover may lead to lower pasture productivity, thereby threatening the sustainability of montane agropastoralism; and (4) terrain had a stronger influence on the timing of last date of snow cover than on the number of snow-covered dates, with slope being more important than aspect, and the strongest effect appearing from the interaction of aspect and steeper slopes. In this study, we characterized the snow-phenology interactions in highland pastures and revealed strong dependencies of pasture phenology on timing of snowmelt and the number of snow-covered dates

Global vegetation variability and its response to elevated CO2, global warming, and climate variability – a study using the offline SSiB4/TRIFFID model and satellite data

Abstract. The climate regime shift during the 1980s had a substantial impact on the terrestrial ecosystems and vegetation at different scales. However, the mechanisms driving vegetation changes, before and after the shift, remain unclear. In this study, we used a biophysical-dynamic vegetation model to estimate large-scale trends in terms of carbon fixation, vegetation growth, and expansion during the period 1958–2007, and to attribute these changes to environmental drivers including elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (hereafter eCO2), global warming, and climate variability (hereafter CV). Simulated Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Gross Primary Product (GPP) were evaluated against observation-based data. Significant spatial correlations are found (correlations &gt; 0.87), along with regionally varying temporal correlations of 0.34–0.80 for LAI and 0.45–0.83 for GPP. More than 40 % of the global land area shows significant trends in LAI and GPP since the 1950s: 11.7 % and 19.3 % of land has consistently positive LAI and GPP trends, respectively; while 17.1 % and 20.1 % of land, saw LAI and GPP trends respectively, reverse during the 1980s. Vegetation fraction cover (FRAC) trends, representing vegetation expansion/shrinking, are found at the edges of semi-arid areas and polar areas. Overall, eCO2 consistently contributes to positive LAI and GPP trends in the tropics. Global warming is shown to mostly affected LAI, with positive effects in high latitudes and negative effects in subtropical semi-arid areas. CV is found to dominate the variability of FRAC, LAI, and GPP in the semi-humid and semi-arid areas. The eCO2 and global warming effects increased after the 1980s, while the CV effect reversed during the 1980s. In addition, plant competition is shown to have played an important role in determining which driver dominated the regional trends. This paper presents a new insight into ecosystem variability and changes in the varying climate since the 1950s