Gross Benefit Estimates From Reductions In Allisions, Collisions And Groundings Due To Electronic Navigational Charts

Nautical charts are a fundamental tool of marine navigation. Critical information provides for safe and efficient use of our waterways and for protection of our marine environment. NOAA nautical charts developed by the Office of Coast Survey (OCS) are mandatory on commercial ships that carry America’s foreign commerce. NOAA’s charts are also used on every Navy and Coast Guard ship, fishing and passenger vessels, and are widely carried by recreational boaters. They directly support NOAA’s goal to “promote safe navigation” and the Department of Commerce’s goal of promoting U.S. competitiveness in the global marketplace. Data from the Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS®) also provides real-time essential navigational information to promote safety and efficiency at the largest ports in the U.S. This study was based on evaluation of Allision, Collision and Grounding (ACG) occurrences per vessel transit in the presence of PORTS® installations and updates of five types of ENCs (overview, general, coastal, approach and harbor). At locations where PORTS® had been installed a significant portion of ACG variation was explained where at least one of each type of Electronic Nautical Chart (ENC) had also been released. As the number of ENC releases increased, ACG accident rates all declined. At locations were PORTS® had not been installed, instances where all ENC types had been updated (as well as harbor only ENCs) were found to be significant in explanations of reductions in groundings. Total annual benefits were estimated to exceed $29 million – equal to about$262 million over a ten-year period. Results of this study can assist in prioritizing locations and periodicity of future ENC updates as well as suggesting locations for additional PORTS® installations

Enhancing human performance in ship operations by modifying global design factors at the design stage Enhancing human performance in ship operations by modifying global design factors at the design stage

A B S T R A C T Usually the improvements of human performance in the course of ship design process is carried out by modifying local ergonomics, like electronic visualisation and information display systems on the bridge or in the engine control room, stair or hatch covers design. However, the effect of global design factors (GDFs), such as ship motion, whole body vibration and noise, on human performance has not been given attention before. Such knowledge would allow the improvements of human performance by effective design modification on very early stage of ship design process. Therefore, in this paper we introduce probabilistic models linking the effect of GDFs with the human performance suitable for ship design process. As a theoretical basis for modelling human performance the concept of Attention Management is utilized, which combines the theories described by Dynamic Adaptability Model, Cognitive Control Model and Malleable Attentional Resources Theory. Since the analysed field is characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, we adopt a specific modelling technique along with a validation framework that allows uncertainty treatment and helps the potential endusers to gain confidence in the models and the results that they yield. The proposed models are developed with the use Bayesian Belief Networks, which allows systematic translation of the available background knowledge into a coherent network and the uncertainty assessment and treatment. The obtained results are promising as the models are responsive to changes in the GDF nodes as expected. The models may be used as intended by naval architects and vessel designers, to facilitate risk-based ship design

Realising advanced risk-based port state control inspection using data-driven Bayesian networks

In the past decades, maritime transportation not only contributes to economic prosperity, but also renders many threats to the industry, causing huge casualties and losses. As a result, various maritime safety measures have been developed, including Port State Control (PSC) inspections. In this paper, we propose a data-driven Bayesian Network (BN) based approach to analyse risk factors influencing PSC inspections, and predict the probability of vessel detention. To do so, inspection data of bulk carriers in seven major European countries from 2005 to 2008 1 in Paris MoU is collected to identify the relevant risk factors. Meanwhile, the network structure is constructed via TAN learning and subsequently validated by sensitivity analysis. The results reveal two conclusions: first, the key risk factors influencing PSC inspections include number of deficiencies, type of inspection, Recognised Organisation (RO) and vessel age. Second, the model exploits a novel way to predict the detention probabilities under different situations, which effectively help port authorities to rationalise their inspection regulations as well as allocation of the resources. Further effort will be made to conduct contrastive analysis between ‘Pre-NIR’ period and ‘Post-NIR’ period to test the impact of NIR started in 2008. © 2018 Elsevier Lt

The effect of nonconformities encountered in the use of technology on the occurrence of collision, contact and grounding accidents

Technology and its innovative applications make life easier and reduce the workload on seafarers. Today's ship bridges have much more modern and integrated navigation systems than before, and the ship's handling and management have become much easier. However, nonconformities encountered in the use of technological devices may cause accidents. In this study, the effect of human factor related errors associated with the use of the bridge's electronic navigational devices on grounding and collision-contact accidents was investigated. Non-conformities obtained from 175 collision-contact and 115 grounding accident reports were qualitatively analysed by means of human factor analysis and a classification system. Afterwards, relationships between nonconformities and their probabilities were evaluated quantitatively via a Bayesian network method. As a result of the study, the accident network was revealed. This accident network summarizes how operating errors in the use of technological equipment cause accidents. Recommendations on the prevention of accidents caused by operating errors associated with the use of new technologies are finally given

Enhancing human performance in ship operations by modifying global design factors at the design stage

Usually the improvements of human performance in the course of ship design process is carried out by modifying local ergonomics, like electronic visualisation and information display systems on the bridge or in the engine control room, stair or hatch covers design. However, the effect of global design factors (GDFs), such as ship motion, whole body vibration and noise, on human performance has not been given attention before. Such knowledge would allow the improvements of human performance by effective design modification on very early stage of ship design process. Therefore, in this paper we introduce probabilistic models linking the effect of GDFs with the human performance suitable for ship design process. As a theoretical basis for modelling human performance the concept of Attention Management is utilized, which combines the theories described by Dynamic Adaptability Model, Cognitive Control Model and Malleable Attentional Resources Theory. Since the analysed field is characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, we adopt a specific modelling technique along with a validation framework that allows uncertainty treatment and helps the potential end-users to gain confidence in the models and the results that they yield. The proposed models are developed with the use Bayesian Belief Networks, which allows systematic translation of the available background knowledge into a coherent network and the uncertainty assessment and treatment. The obtained results are promising as the models are responsive to changes in the GDF nodes as expected. The models may be used as intended by naval architects and vessel designers, to facilitate risk-based ship design.Peer reviewe

A novel method for the risk assessment of human evacuation from cruise ships in maritime transportation

In maritime transport, evacuation, escape and rescue play a crucial role in protecting people's lives when a passenger ship is involved in a serious accident. The study aims to develop a new method to identify hazards, quantify and rank the associated risks in the process of Human Evacuation from Passenger Ships (HEPS). Firstly, based on extensive literature review and marine accident investigation reports, the risk factors affecting passenger ship evacuation were analysed and identified, and an analysis framework based on Human, Ship, Environment and Organization (HSEO) for HEPS was proposed. Secondly, a risk assessment model was proposed to quantify and rank risk factors in the process of HEPS. Finally, a large-scale evacuation drill of a cruise ship was taken as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed evaluation model, and accuracy of the results. The results reveal that (1) evacuation decision, operation of Life-Saving Appliances (LSAs) are the main risks affecting the safety of HEPS; (2) the behaviours of passengers have a relatively lower risk priority; and (3) future HEPS research should focus on the development of a multi-attribute decision system to address the issue on when to evacuate and when to abandon a ship

Risk-Based Game Modelling for Port State Control Inspections

This thesis aims to develop a new way for port authorities to predict, analyse and make decisions in Port State Control (PSC) inspections. Under the New Inspection Regime (NIR), it is necessary to not only figure out the influence of new regime to the PSC system, but also provide some technical tools capable of predicting the inspection results and supporting the decision-making of port authorities when regulating the inspection policy. The study consists of analysis from multiple perspectives, both qualitative and quantitative. The risk factors influencing the inspection results and the decision-making of port authorities under NIR are identified through the practical inspection records and related literature. The Paris Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) offers the historical inspection records within the region of Europe and the North Atlantic basin, reflecting different conditions in different periods. Given the different inspection system since 2011, port authorities require a brand new perception of the new inspection regime to estimate the inspection results, and further make decisions when making their own inspection policy. To achieve the objective, an incorporation of two types of models that have proved popular and superior is applied in this study. One is the risk assessment model of Bayesian network (BN), the other is the decision-making model of game theory. The BN models in this research utilize a data-driven approach called Tree Augmented Naïve (TAN) learning to derive the structure of the models. Based on the inspection reports collected from Paris MoU, two BNs that represent the situations of Paris MoU inspection system in different periods are constructed. Company performance, the new indicator, is viewed as one of the important factors influencing the inspection results for the first time and considered in the models. The BN model after the implementation of NIR can serve as the prediction tool for estimating inspection results under dynamic situations. Additionally, a comparative analysis between two models is conducted to clarify the influence on PSC inspection system brought by NIR. When constructing the non-cooperative strategic game model between port authorities and ship owners under NIR, the BN model outcomes play a crucial role in this process, highlighting the novelty of this model. Through the analysis and calculation on the payoff matrix, a Nash equilibrium solution representing the theoretical optimal inspection rate for port authorities is obtained. To validate the feasibility and practical significance of the game model, an empirical study is conducted. The statistics are quantitative and collected from different sources, i.e. Basic vessel information from the World Shipping Encyclopaedia (WSE), casualty information from IMO and Lloyd's Register of Shipping, PSC Inspection records from Paris MoU online inspection database, and the estimated value of different cost types from Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. The empirical study illustrates the insights of the optimal inspection policy for port authorities (i.e. with the increase of punishment severity, the optimal inspection rates experience a decreasing trend whatever the vessel condition), as well as providing suggestions for them when formulating the optimal inspection policy under various situations. Based on the BN model and the strategic game model after the implementation of NIR, the thesis eventually proposes a decision-making framework for port authorities to prioritise and select the strategies under different situations. The six-step framework incorporates a risk assessment approach and decision-making approach to provide a novel way to rank the candidate options of port authorities in terms of their resources, which enables decision-makers to find optimal strategies to improve the performance of the PSC inspection system under dynamic business environments. In general, this thesis provides important insights for port authorities to ensure that optimal inspection actions are taken to improve safety at sea in a cost effective manner. The two technical tools (i.e. the dynamic prediction tool for inspection results & the optimal inspection strategy), and the decision-making framework proposed in this project are helpful for port authorities within the Paris MoU region when regulating their inspection policy under NIR. Meanwhile, the comparative analysis in this study further clarifies the influence of NIR on new inspection system from different angles for the first time, demonstrating the introduction and implementation of NIR is a wise and positive decision