Dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users

[EN] The electricity sector is currently undergoing a process of liberalization and separation of roles, which is being implemented under the regulatory auspices of each Member State of the European Union and, therefore, with different speeds, perspectives and objectives that must converge on a common horizon, where Europe will benefit from an interconnected energy market in which producers and consumers can participate in free competition. This process of liberalization and separation of roles involves two consequences or, viewed another way, entails a major consequence from which other immediate consequence, as a necessity, is derived. The main consequence is the increased complexity in the management and supervision of a system, the electrical, increasingly interconnected and participatory, with connection of distributed energy sources, much of them from renewable sources, at different voltage levels and with different generation capacity at any point in the network. From this situation the other consequence is derived, which is the need to communicate information between agents, reliably, safely and quickly, and that this information is analyzed in the most effective way possible, to form part of the processes of decision taking that improve the observability and controllability of a system which is increasing in complexity and number of agents involved. With the evolution of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), and the investments both in improving existing measurement and communications infrastructure, and taking the measurement and actuation capacity to a greater number of points in medium and low voltage networks, the availability of data that informs of the state of the network is increasingly higher and more complete. All these systems are part of the so-called Smart Grids, or intelligent networks of the future, a future which is not so far. One such source of information comes from the energy consumption of customers, measured on a regular basis (every hour, half hour or quarter-hour) and sent to the Distribution System Operators from the Smart Meters making use of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). This way, there is an increasingly amount of information on the energy consumption of customers, being stored in Big Data systems. This growing source of information demands specialized techniques which can take benefit from it, extracting a useful and summarized knowledge from it. This thesis deals with the use of this information of energy consumption from Smart Meters, in particular on the application of data mining techniques to obtain temporal patterns that characterize the users of electrical energy, grouping them according to these patterns in a small number of groups or clusters, that allow evaluating how users consume energy, both during the day and during a sequence of days, allowing to assess trends and predict future scenarios. For this, the current techniques are studied and, proving that the current works do not cover this objective, clustering or dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users are developed. These techniques are tested and validated on a database of hourly energy consumption values for a sample of residential customers in Spain during years 2008 and 2009. The results allow to observe both the characterization in consumption patterns of the different types of residential energy consumers, and their evolution over time, and to assess, for example, how the regulatory changes that occurred in Spain in the electricity sector during those years influenced in the temporal patterns of energy consumption.[ES] El sector eléctrico se halla actualmente sometido a un proceso de liberalización y separación de roles, que está siendo aplicado bajo los auspicios regulatorios de cada Estado Miembro de la Unión Europea y, por tanto, con distintas velocidades, perspectivas y objetivos que deben confluir en un horizonte común, en donde Europa se beneficiará de un mercado energético interconectado, en el cual productores y consumidores podrán participar en libre competencia. Este proceso de liberalización y separación de roles conlleva dos consecuencias o, visto de otra manera, conlleva una consecuencia principal de la cual se deriva, como necesidad, otra consecuencia inmediata. La consecuencia principal es el aumento de la complejidad en la gestión y supervisión de un sistema, el eléctrico, cada vez más interconectado y participativo, con conexión de fuentes distribuidas de energía, muchas de ellas de origen renovable, a distintos niveles de tensión y con distinta capacidad de generación, en cualquier punto de la red. De esta situación se deriva la otra consecuencia, que es la necesidad de comunicar información entre los distintos agentes, de forma fiable, segura y rápida, y que esta información sea analizada de la forma más eficaz posible, para que forme parte de los procesos de toma de decisiones que mejoran la observabilidad y controlabilidad de un sistema cada vez más complejo y con más agentes involucrados. Con el avance de las Tecnologías de Información y Comunicaciones (TIC), y las inversiones tanto en mejora de la infraestructura existente de medida y comunicaciones, como en llevar la obtención de medidas y la capacidad de actuación a un mayor número de puntos en redes de media y baja tensión, la disponibilidad de datos sobre el estado de la red es cada vez mayor y más completa. Todos estos sistemas forman parte de las llamadas Smart Grids, o redes inteligentes del futuro, un futuro ya no tan lejano. Una de estas fuentes de información proviene de los consumos energéticos de los clientes, medidos de forma periódica (cada hora, media hora o cuarto de hora) y enviados hacia las Distribuidoras desde los contadores inteligentes o Smart Meters, mediante infraestructura avanzada de medida o Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). De esta forma, cada vez se tiene una mayor cantidad de información sobre los consumos energéticos de los clientes, almacenada en sistemas de Big Data. Esta cada vez mayor fuente de información demanda técnicas especializadas que sepan aprovecharla, extrayendo un conocimiento útil y resumido de la misma. La presente Tesis doctoral versa sobre el uso de esta información de consumos energéticos de los contadores inteligentes, en concreto sobre la aplicación de técnicas de minería de datos (data mining) para obtener patrones temporales que caractericen a los usuarios de energía eléctrica, agrupándolos según estos mismos patrones en un número reducido de grupos o clusters, que permiten evaluar la forma en que los usuarios consumen la energía, tanto a lo largo del día como durante una secuencia de días, permitiendo evaluar tendencias y predecir escenarios futuros. Para ello se estudian las técnicas actuales y, comprobando que los trabajos actuales no cubren este objetivo, se desarrollan técnicas de clustering o segmentación dinámica aplicadas a curvas de carga de consumo eléctrico diario de clientes domésticos. Estas técnicas se prueban y validan sobre una base de datos de consumos energéticos horarios de una muestra de clientes residenciales en España durante los años 2008 y 2009. Los resultados permiten observar tanto la caracterización en consumos de los distintos tipos de consumidores energéticos residenciales, como su evolución en el tiempo, y permiten evaluar, por ejemplo, cómo influenciaron en los patrones temporales de consumos los cambios regulatorios que se produjeron en España en el sector eléctrico durante esos años.[CA] El sector elèctric es troba actualment sotmès a un procés de liberalització i separació de rols, que s'està aplicant davall els auspicis reguladors de cada estat membre de la Unió Europea i, per tant, amb distintes velocitats, perspectives i objectius que han de confluir en un horitzó comú, on Europa es beneficiarà d'un mercat energètic interconnectat, en el qual productors i consumidors podran participar en lliure competència. Aquest procés de liberalització i separació de rols comporta dues conseqüències o, vist d'una altra manera, comporta una conseqüència principal de la qual es deriva, com a necessitat, una altra conseqüència immediata. La conseqüència principal és l'augment de la complexitat en la gestió i supervisió d'un sistema, l'elèctric, cada vegada més interconnectat i participatiu, amb connexió de fonts distribuïdes d'energia, moltes d'aquestes d'origen renovable, a distints nivells de tensió i amb distinta capacitat de generació, en qualsevol punt de la xarxa. D'aquesta situació es deriva l'altra conseqüència, que és la necessitat de comunicar informació entre els distints agents, de forma fiable, segura i ràpida, i que aquesta informació siga analitzada de la manera més eficaç possible, perquè forme part dels processos de presa de decisions que milloren l'observabilitat i controlabilitat d'un sistema cada vegada més complex i amb més agents involucrats. Amb l'avanç de les tecnologies de la informació i les comunicacions (TIC), i les inversions, tant en la millora de la infraestructura existent de mesura i comunicacions, com en el trasllat de l'obtenció de mesures i capacitat d'actuació a un nombre més gran de punts en xarxes de mitjana i baixa tensió, la disponibilitat de dades sobre l'estat de la xarxa és cada vegada major i més completa. Tots aquests sistemes formen part de les denominades Smart Grids o xarxes intel·ligents del futur, un futur ja no tan llunyà. Una d'aquestes fonts d'informació prové dels consums energètics dels clients, mesurats de forma periòdica (cada hora, mitja hora o quart d'hora) i enviats cap a les distribuïdores des dels comptadors intel·ligents o Smart Meters, per mitjà d'infraestructura avançada de mesura o Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). D'aquesta manera, cada vegada es té una major quantitat d'informació sobre els consums energètics dels clients, emmagatzemada en sistemes de Big Data. Aquesta cada vegada major font d'informació demanda tècniques especialitzades que sàpiguen aprofitar-la, extraient-ne un coneixement útil i resumit. La present tesi doctoral versa sobre l'ús d'aquesta informació de consums energètics dels comptadors intel·ligents, en concret sobre l'aplicació de tècniques de mineria de dades (data mining) per a obtenir patrons temporals que caracteritzen els usuaris d'energia elèctrica, agrupant-los segons aquests mateixos patrons en una quantitat reduïda de grups o clusters, que permeten avaluar la forma en què els usuaris consumeixen l'energia, tant al llarg del dia com durant una seqüència de dies, i que permetent avaluar tendències i predir escenaris futurs. Amb aquesta finalitat, s'estudien les tècniques actuals i, en comprovar que els treballs actuals no cobreixen aquest objectiu, es desenvolupen tècniques de clustering o segmentació dinàmica aplicades a corbes de càrrega de consum elèctric diari de clients domèstics. Aquestes tècniques es proven i validen sobre una base de dades de consums energètics horaris d'una mostra de clients residencials a Espanya durant els anys 2008 i 2009. Els resultats permeten observar tant la caracterització en consums dels distints tipus de consumidors energètics residencials, com la seua evolució en el temps, i permeten avaluar, per exemple, com van influenciar en els patrons temporals de consums els canvis reguladors que es van produir a Espanya en el sector elèctric durant aquests anys.Benítez Sánchez, IJ. (2015). Dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/59236TESI

Efficient Learning Machines

Computer scienc

Modélisation formelle des systèmes de détection d'intrusions

L’écosystème de la cybersécurité évolue en permanence en termes du nombre, de la diversité, et de la complexité des attaques. De ce fait, les outils de détection deviennent inefficaces face à certaines attaques. On distingue généralement trois types de systèmes de détection d’intrusions : détection par anomalies, détection par signatures et détection hybride. La détection par anomalies est fondée sur la caractérisation du comportement habituel du système, typiquement de manière statistique. Elle permet de détecter des attaques connues ou inconnues, mais génère aussi un très grand nombre de faux positifs. La détection par signatures permet de détecter des attaques connues en définissant des règles qui décrivent le comportement connu d’un attaquant. Cela demande une bonne connaissance du comportement de l’attaquant. La détection hybride repose sur plusieurs méthodes de détection incluant celles sus-citées. Elle présente l’avantage d’être plus précise pendant la détection. Des outils tels que Snort et Zeek offrent des langages de bas niveau pour l’expression de règles de reconnaissance d’attaques. Le nombre d’attaques potentielles étant très grand, ces bases de règles deviennent rapidement difficiles à gérer et à maintenir. De plus, l’expression de règles avec état dit stateful est particulièrement ardue pour reconnaître une séquence d’événements. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons une approche stateful basée sur les diagrammes d’état-transition algébriques (ASTDs) afin d’identifier des attaques complexes. Les ASTDs permettent de représenter de façon graphique et modulaire une spécification, ce qui facilite la maintenance et la compréhension des règles. Nous étendons la notation ASTD avec de nouvelles fonctionnalités pour représenter des attaques complexes. Ensuite, nous spécifions plusieurs attaques avec la notation étendue et exécutons les spécifications obtenues sur des flots d’événements à l’aide d’un interpréteur pour identifier des attaques. Nous évaluons aussi les performances de l’interpréteur avec des outils industriels tels que Snort et Zeek. Puis, nous réalisons un compilateur afin de générer du code exécutable à partir d’une spécification ASTD, capable d’identifier de façon efficiente les séquences d’événements.Abstract : The cybersecurity ecosystem continuously evolves with the number, the diversity, and the complexity of cyber attacks. Generally, we have three types of Intrusion Detection System (IDS) : anomaly-based detection, signature-based detection, and hybrid detection. Anomaly detection is based on the usual behavior description of the system, typically in a static manner. It enables detecting known or unknown attacks but also generating a large number of false positives. Signature based detection enables detecting known attacks by defining rules that describe known attacker’s behavior. It needs a good knowledge of attacker behavior. Hybrid detection relies on several detection methods including the previous ones. It has the advantage of being more precise during detection. Tools like Snort and Zeek offer low level languages to represent rules for detecting attacks. The number of potential attacks being large, these rule bases become quickly hard to manage and maintain. Moreover, the representation of stateful rules to recognize a sequence of events is particularly arduous. In this thesis, we propose a stateful approach based on algebraic state-transition diagrams (ASTDs) to identify complex attacks. ASTDs allow a graphical and modular representation of a specification, that facilitates maintenance and understanding of rules. We extend the ASTD notation with new features to represent complex attacks. Next, we specify several attacks with the extended notation and run the resulting specifications on event streams using an interpreter to identify attacks. We also evaluate the performance of the interpreter with industrial tools such as Snort and Zeek. Then, we build a compiler in order to generate executable code from an ASTD specification, able to efficiently identify sequences of events

Intelligent Circuits and Systems

ICICS-2020 is the third conference initiated by the School of Electronics and Electrical Engineering at Lovely Professional University that explored recent innovations of researchers working for the development of smart and green technologies in the fields of Energy, Electronics, Communications, Computers, and Control. ICICS provides innovators to identify new opportunities for the social and economic benefits of society.　 This conference bridges the gap between academics and R&D institutions, social visionaries, and experts from all strata of society to present their ongoing research activities and foster research relations between them. It provides opportunities for the exchange of new ideas, applications, and experiences in the field of smart technologies and finding global partners for future collaboration. The ICICS-2020 was conducted in two broad categories, Intelligent Circuits & Intelligent Systems and Emerging Technologies in Electrical Engineering

Energy-Efficient Software

The energy consumption of ICT is growing at an unprecedented pace. The main drivers for this growth are the widespread diffusion of mobile devices and the proliferation of datacenters, the most power-hungry IT facilities. In addition, it is predicted that the demand for ICT technologies and services will increase in the coming years. Finding solutions to decrease ICT energy footprint is and will be a top priority for researchers and professionals in the field. As a matter of fact, hardware technology has substantially improved throughout the years: modern ICT devices are definitely more energy efficient than their predecessors, in terms of performance per watt. However, as recent studies show, these improvements are not effectively reducing the growth rate of ICT energy consumption. This suggests that these devices are not used in an energy-efficient way. Hence, we have to look at software. Modern software applications are not designed and implemented with energy efficiency in mind. As hardware became more and more powerful (and cheaper), software developers were not concerned anymore with optimizing resource usage. Rather, they focused on providing additional features, adding layers of abstraction and complexity to their products. This ultimately resulted in bloated, slow software applications that waste hardware resources -- and consequently, energy. In this dissertation, the relationship between software behavior and hardware energy consumption is explored in detail. For this purpose, the abstraction levels of software are traversed upwards, from source code to architectural components. Empirical research methods and evidence-based software engineering approaches serve as a basis. First of all, this dissertation shows the relevance of software over energy consumption. Secondly, it gives examples of best practices and tactics that can be adopted to improve software energy efficiency, or design energy-efficient software from scratch. Finally, this knowledge is synthesized in a conceptual framework that gives the reader an overview of possible strategies for software energy efficiency, along with examples and suggestions for future research

Políticas de Copyright de Publicações Científicas em Repositórios Institucionais: O Caso do INESC TEC

A progressiva transformação das práticas científicas, impulsionada pelo desenvolvimento das novas Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação (TIC), têm possibilitado aumentar o acesso à informação, caminhando gradualmente para uma abertura do ciclo de pesquisa. Isto permitirá resolver a longo prazo uma adversidade que se tem colocado aos investigadores, que passa pela existência de barreiras que limitam as condições de acesso, sejam estas geográficas ou financeiras. Apesar da produção científica ser dominada, maioritariamente, por grandes editoras comerciais, estando sujeita às regras por estas impostas, o Movimento do Acesso Aberto cuja primeira declaração pública, a Declaração de Budapeste (BOAI), é de 2002, vem propor alterações significativas que beneficiam os autores e os leitores. Este Movimento vem a ganhar importância em Portugal desde 2003, com a constituição do primeiro repositório institucional a nível nacional. Os repositórios institucionais surgiram como uma ferramenta de divulgação da produção científica de uma instituição, com o intuito de permitir abrir aos resultados da investigação, quer antes da publicação e do próprio processo de arbitragem (preprint), quer depois (postprint), e, consequentemente, aumentar a visibilidade do trabalho desenvolvido por um investigador e a respetiva instituição. O estudo apresentado, que passou por uma análise das políticas de copyright das publicações científicas mais relevantes do INESC TEC, permitiu não só perceber que as editoras adotam cada vez mais políticas que possibilitam o auto-arquivo das publicações em repositórios institucionais, como também que existe todo um trabalho de sensibilização a percorrer, não só para os investigadores, como para a instituição e toda a sociedade. A produção de um conjunto de recomendações, que passam pela implementação de uma política institucional que incentive o auto-arquivo das publicações desenvolvidas no âmbito institucional no repositório, serve como mote para uma maior valorização da produção científica do INESC TEC.The progressive transformation of scientific practices, driven by the development of new Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), which made it possible to increase access to information, gradually moving towards an opening of the research cycle. This opening makes it possible to resolve, in the long term, the adversity that has been placed on researchers, which involves the existence of barriers that limit access conditions, whether geographical or financial. Although large commercial publishers predominantly dominate scientific production and subject it to the rules imposed by them, the Open Access movement whose first public declaration, the Budapest Declaration (BOAI), was in 2002, proposes significant changes that benefit the authors and the readers. This Movement has gained importance in Portugal since 2003, with the constitution of the first institutional repository at the national level. Institutional repositories have emerged as a tool for disseminating the scientific production of an institution to open the results of the research, both before publication and the preprint process and postprint, increase the visibility of work done by an investigator and his or her institution. The present study, which underwent an analysis of the copyright policies of INESC TEC most relevant scientific publications, allowed not only to realize that publishers are increasingly adopting policies that make it possible to self-archive publications in institutional repositories, all the work of raising awareness, not only for researchers but also for the institution and the whole society. The production of a set of recommendations, which go through the implementation of an institutional policy that encourages the self-archiving of the publications developed in the institutional scope in the repository, serves as a motto for a greater appreciation of the scientific production of INESC TEC

Artificial Intelligence for the Detection of Electricity Theft and Irregular Power Usage in Emerging Markets

Power grids are critical infrastructure assets that face non-technical losses (NTL), which include, but are not limited to, electricity theft, broken or malfunctioning meters and arranged false meter readings. In emerging markets, NTL are a prime concern and often range up to 40% of the total electricity distributed. The annual world-wide costs for utilities due to NTL are estimated to be around USD 100 billion. Reducing NTL in order to increase revenue, profit and reliability of the grid is therefore of vital interest to utilities and authorities. In the beginning of this thesis, we provide an in-depth discussion of the causes of NTL and the economic effects thereof. Industrial NTL detection systems are still largely based on expert knowledge when deciding whether to carry out costly on-site inspections of customers. Electric utilities are reluctant to move to large-scale deployments of automated systems that learn NTL profiles from data. This is due to the latter's propensity to suggest a large number of unnecessary inspections. In this thesis, we compare expert knowledge-based decision making systems to automated statistical decision making. We then branch out our research into different directions: First, in order to allow human experts to feed their knowledge in the decision process, we propose a method for visualizing prediction results at various granularity levels in a spatial hologram. Our approach allows domain experts to put the classification results into the context of the data and to incorporate their knowledge for making the final decisions of which customers to inspect. Second, we propose a machine learning framework that classifies customers into NTL or non-NTL using a variety of features derived from the customers' consumption data as well as a selection of master data. The methodology used is specifically tailored to the level of noise in the data. Last, we discuss the issue of biases in data sets. A bias occurs whenever training sets are not representative of the test data, which results in unreliable models. We show how quantifying and reducing these biases leads to an increased accuracy of the trained NTL detectors. This thesis has resulted in appreciable results on real-world big data sets of millions customers. Our systems are being deployed in a commercial NTL detection software. We also provide suggestions on how to further reduce NTL by not only carrying out inspections, but by implementing market reforms, increasing efficiency in the organization of utilities and improving communication between utilities, authorities and customers

Cybersecurity of Digital Service Chains

This open access book presents the main scientific results from the H2020 GUARD project. The GUARD project aims at filling the current technological gap between software management paradigms and cybersecurity models, the latter still lacking orchestration and agility to effectively address the dynamicity of the former. This book provides a comprehensive review of the main concepts, architectures, algorithms, and non-technical aspects developed during three years of investigation; the description of the Smart Mobility use case developed at the end of the project gives a practical example of how the GUARD platform and related technologies can be deployed in practical scenarios. We expect the book to be interesting for the broad group of researchers, engineers, and professionals daily experiencing the inadequacy of outdated cybersecurity models for modern computing environments and cyber-physical systems