51,822 research outputs found
Efficient Estimation of Stochastic Flow Network Reliability
International audienc
Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand
A technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed
Stochastic Model for Power Grid Dynamics
We introduce a stochastic model that describes the quasi-static dynamics of
an electric transmission network under perturbations introduced by random load
fluctuations, random removing of system components from service, random repair
times for the failed components, and random response times to implement optimal
system corrections for removing line overloads in a damaged or stressed
transmission network. We use a linear approximation to the network flow
equations and apply linear programming techniques that optimize the dispatching
of generators and loads in order to eliminate the network overloads associated
with a damaged system. We also provide a simple model for the operator's
response to various contingency events that is not always optimal due to either
failure of the state estimation system or due to the incorrect subjective
assessment of the severity associated with these events. This further allows us
to use a game theoretic framework for casting the optimization of the
operator's response into the choice of the optimal strategy which minimizes the
operating cost. We use a simple strategy space which is the degree of tolerance
to line overloads and which is an automatic control (optimization) parameter
that can be adjusted to trade off automatic load shed without propagating
cascades versus reduced load shed and an increased risk of propagating
cascades. The tolerance parameter is chosen to describes a smooth transition
from a risk averse to a risk taken strategy...Comment: framework for a system-level analysis of the power grid from the
viewpoint of complex network
An Integrated Market for Electricity and Natural Gas Systems with Stochastic Power Producers
In energy systems with high shares of weather-driven renewable power sources,
gas-fired power plants can serve as a back-up technology to ensure security of
supply and provide short-term flexibility. Therefore, a tighter coordination
between electricity and natural gas networks is foreseen. In this work, we
examine different levels of coordination in terms of system integration and
time coupling of trading floors. We propose an integrated operational model for
electricity and natural gas systems under uncertain power supply by applying
two-stage stochastic programming. This formulation co-optimizes day-ahead and
real-time dispatch of both energy systems and aims at minimizing the total
expected cost. Additionally, two deterministic models, one of an integrated
energy system and one that treats the two systems independently, are presented.
We utilize a formulation that considers the linepack of the natural gas system,
while it results in a tractable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model.
Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model in
accommodating high shares of renewables and the importance of proper natural
gas system modeling in short-term operations to reveal valuable flexibility of
the natural gas system. Moreover, we identify the coordination parameters
between the two markets and show their impact on the system's operation and
dispatch
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